ARGENTINA
Analysts
Domingo Cavallo
Former Economy Minister and Central Bank President
Joaquin Cottani
Former Economy SecretaryDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Stagflation by design? Milei’s monetary strategy and its costs
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Nov 2026
The Milei government has tried to break inflationary inertia by simultaneously controlling the nominal exchange rate and the money supply. To do so, it has relied on three heterodox tools: the cepo (exchange controls), the provision of exchange-rate hedges, and the sterilization of reserve purcha...
The limits of disinflation and the challenge of growth with one year to the 2027 presidential election
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Oct 2026
With one year remaining until the presidential election on October 24, 2027, and roughly ten months until the mandatory primary elections (PASO) that will define party candidates, the window to reverse the modest results of the economic program—in terms of activity and inflation—is narrow. The go...
Four challenges ahead of the 2027 elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Sep 2026
With 13 months to go before the next presidential election, in which the ruling party will seek reelection, and 11 months before the mandatory primary elections (PASO), President Javier Milei’s government faces four major challenges. The first is to meet its dollar financing needs without losing ...
Imbalanced growth and the debate about monetary policy
ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Sep 2026 · 1 response
Argentina has two problems at present: a growth problem and a money problem. Thirty two months into the Milei administration, real GDP growth has been unimpressive and imbalanced. There is scarce creation of quality employment, and real wages in formal economic activities are falling, as are per-...
Upcoming Webinar - Argentina's recovery-drivers, risks and timing
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Aug 2026
Date: 14 Aug 2026 | Time: 10:00 AM EDT How will Argentina navigate the tradeoff between disinflation and economic growth in the second half of 2026? Can a steady or rising dollar demand destabilize the peso ahead of the presidential election? Can MECON's financing program ameliorate investor c...
Argentina's elusive quest for remonetization
ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Jul 2026
The Achilles’ heel of the Argentine economy is the lack of remonetization in pesos. Episodes of solid growth with low inflation over the past 50 years occurred in the 1990s (especially 1991–1997) and the 2000s (especially 2003–2007). In both periods, growth with disinflation rested on a strong ri...
Explaining the Differences Between MECON’s Financing Program, Released Yesterday, and My Own Estimates Published Last Week
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Jul 2026
As expected, the government yesterday released its financing program for 2026 and 2027 in response to strong market demand. While the announcement has helped assuage investor concerns about the administration’s ability to service debt maturing this year and next, it leaves some important question...
Rethinking Argentina's 2026–27 external financing gap
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Jun 2026 · 1 response
Back in January, I argued that the combined US dollar debt obligations of the National Treasury and the Central Bank (BCRA) appeared too large relative to the Milei administration's capacity to finance them through the end of the presidential term. Six months later, that situation looks considera...
Seeking stability with no takeoff in sight
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Jun 2026
The debate surrounding Argentina's outlook increasingly revolves around a simple but consequential issue. Can the economy recover before inflation reaches truly low levels, or must inflation fall further before a meaningful recovery can occur? A weaker peso risks reigniting inflation. A stable p...