BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Higher for longer?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jun 2025
The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) communication signals that the interest rate will be kept at a high level as long as necessary to bring inflation to the target midpoint and re-anchor expectations. However, we believe it is unlikely that the Central Bank will maintain real interest rates clo...
Some like it hot
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025
The labor market remains tight, as evidenced by the new drop in the unemployment rate in April, after three quarters of stability. Our estimates suggest that labor market-driven pressures are likely to persist for quite some time. Even considering the economic slowdown projected by the Centra...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2025
OVERVIEW THE MASKS COME OFF The series of crises generated by the Lula administration has shattered myths and exposed personal and systemic weaknesses. With no real plan for the country other than increasing public spending to keep the Workers' Party (PT) in power, the current model distor...
Anatomy of an imbalance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2025
GDP grew by 1.4% in the first quarter compared to last of 2024 in seasonally adjusted terms, slightly below the average market forecast of 1.5%. Compared to the same period last year, it grew 2.9%, also slightly below expectations. There were no surprises in terms of growth breakdown: as antic...
What goes around, comes around (with interest)
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 May 2025
The Bimonthly Revenue and Expenditure Report indicates that the National Treasury’s financing need in 2025 will reach BRL 76 billion, BRL 47 billion above the amount originally projected in the Annual Budget Law (LOA). Despite official rhetoric, it is clear that the government’s goal is merel...
Beyond the horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 May 2025
The Central Bank has likely come to the end of the monetary tightening cycle, or has reached very close to it, even as its own inflation forecasts remain above target for the relevant horizon. Moreover, these forecasts—highly dependent on demand behavior—still appear optimistic, based on the assu...
Blow hot and cold
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 May 2025
The minutes from last week’s Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting sounded more ambiguous than the statement released at the time. The tone of the original document, which by design is much less detailed than the minutes, suggested a high probability that the Committee would opt to maintain t...
All eggs in one basket
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2025
The appreciation of the Brazilian real in 2025 is good news for inflation control. However, the total impact of this appreciation on prices seems to depend on the real’s dynamics against currencies other than the dollar. Although most Brazilian imports are denominated in U.S. dollars, export pric...
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 May 2025
Copom provoked no surprise with its decision to hike the target for the benchmark interest rate by 0.50 percentage points, from 14.25% to 14.75% per year. However, more than the decision itself, the main interest of “Copom Watchers” lay in the possible signaling regarding the next steps in moneta...