BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Copy & paste
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2025
BCB’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) kept, as widely expected, the target for the benchmark Selic rate at 15% per year, but the policy rate was not the only element that remained unchanged after the meeting. The statement released immediately after the decision—which anticipates some of the...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025
LULA 4: A SAMPLE OF THE COMING TIDAL WAVE What was expected to be a calm year-end came to an abrupt halt on Friday, December 5, with a clear sample of the uncertainty and risk that will accompany us into 2026. Equities were 4.31% down, reversing the previous mood of euphoria — or “overbought” ...
Easy does it
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2025
Brazil’s GDP grew 0.1% in the third quarter, slightly below median forecasts (0.2%). While household consumption also increased 0.1%, both government consumption (1.3%) and investment (0.9%) performed better, resulting in a 0.4% increase in domestic demand—which accelerated compared to the second...
Bad moon rising
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Dec 2025
Brazil’s fiscal situation is fragile and requires deep adjustments. Although the government should meet its target in 2025, not only has the target itself lost its meaning, but—yet more importantly—the result remains far from satisfactory, with a growing primary deficit feeding the rapid expansio...
Under pressure
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Nov 2025
The unemployment rate has remained at its historical low in recent months, suggesting that the labor market is still quite tight. However, cooling signs have begun to emerge. When adjusting for movements in the participation rate, an increase in unemployment at the margin becomes apparent. We exp...
Losing steam
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Nov 2025
Economic activity lost strength starting in the second quarter and now shows signs cooling aggregate demand. Retail sales indicate that the payment of court-ordered debts (precatórios) was not enough to sustain a favorable outcome for consumption. Even segments more sensitive to income have shown...
There and back again
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response
The minutes of the Copom meeting maintained a tone similar to that of the statement released last week: more confident regarding the convergence of inflation, yet still cautious enough to avoid prompting market movements that could anticipate the start of the easing cycle.
The mystery of industrial stagnation explained
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Nov 2025
Despite economic growth in recent years somewhat above the historical average, Brazil’s industrial sector continues to show low dynamism. Our interpretation is that one of the main obstacles to the sector’s growth is, paradoxically, the very expansionary economic policy, which stimulates demand i...
One step closer
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Nov 2025
There was no surprise regarding the Copom’s decision to keep the Selic rate at its current level of 15% per year, nor were there major changes in the language of the statement that followed the meeting, despite some progress in two (perhaps three) of the dimensions previously emphasized by the Ce...