CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The new shade of success? Think Uzbek green!
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Jun 2026
Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s rising heavyweight, and I have discussed its various shades of success, ranging from its improving macro-stability, narrowing twin deficits and rising quality of policy-making to its strengthening demographics and improving health statistics. One particular area that ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Gas, roses and peppers—Armenia's dilemma
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Jun 2026
"If peppers are spoiling, I'll pay for those peppers. If roses are spoiling, I'll pay for them, too." Pashinyan's agriculture-related tirade become one of the more widely discussed soundbites of the final week of the campaign. That emotionally-charged outburst was tied to the recent restrictions ...
Armenian election results take an odd turn
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2026
In a rather odd development, the Central Election Commission announced changes in the results previously reported on its website. Trying to explain the changes would only spoil interpretation, so I take the liberty of simply citing CEC Chairman verbatim: "You have all seen the figures published o...
Armenian elections results: first thoughts
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2026
The CEC has just announced the preliminary results from yesterday's vote (final tally must be submitted by law within 7 days of the election). Here are the key takeaways as I see them: 1. The election was hotly contested in a polarized society. The turnout, at roughly 59%, was higher than the 201...
Upcoming webinar: Armenia elections - outlook and implications
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Jun 2026
Date: 3 Jun 2026 | Time: 10:00 AM EDT Can Nikol Pashinyan retain power after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh? Can the opposition unite behind a single credible challenger? Could Armenia face another period of instability if the result is disputed? Join us for our live Zoom webinar featuring Globa...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia after an opposition victory—Georgia 2.0?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 May 2026
The parliamentary elections on Jun 7th are increasingly being viewed by market participants as tantamount to reaching a fork in the road. A win by Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party would reinforce the current westward drift and preserve the positive momentum already visible in Armenian...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: London trip notes
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 May 2026
I visited clients in London this week to discuss Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and I briefly summarize my impressions in this report. Countries can be most usefully arranged in three distinctive groups depending on client interest. Most attention was devoted...
Topic of the week: May 2026 CCA Slide deck - fresh views reflecting Iran developments
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 May 2026
This is a mid-quarter edition of the quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia, comprising a 209-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structur...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Iran shock reshapes CCA macro dynamics
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 May 2026
The Iran crisis has brought to the fore two relevant cross-cutting themes in the CCA related to inflation (monetary policy) and exchange rates. Regarding inflation and monetary policy, early in the crisis I constructed a simple comparative framework (vulnerability index) that aimed to capture ...