CHINA FINANCIAL
Analyst
Michael Pettis
Professor of Finance, Peking UniversityRecent Country Insights
Another month of data shows little has changed
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jun 2025
Special points to highlight in this report: - China’s growth model remains structurally unbalanced, as the government continues to prioritize aggressive GDP targets without implementing the consumption-focused reforms needed for sustainable development. There was, however, some good news in M...
Consumer loans are going bad
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 May 2025
Special points to highlight in this report: - The latest data releases again reinforce the story we’ve been telling all year and much of last year: Beijing may talk a lot about the urgent need to boost domestic demand, and it may make weekly or even daily announcements about how it proposes t...
Webinar Replay - China’s Outlook in the Time of Trade Wars
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 02 May 2025
With an escalating trade war between China and the US, how will China navigate the situation and what will the implications be for its economy and global trade? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Michael Pettis discussing China's economic outlook in the time of...
More mixed data in March
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Apr 2025
Special points to highlight in this report: - The property sector in top-tier cities may be close to bottoming out, although this is still far from the case in the rest of China. - Growth in March came in much stronger than expected, and drove first-quarter growth also above expectations,...
Not much came out of the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Mar 2025
Special points to highlight in this report: • So far, I expect economic activity in 2025 to look a lot like economic activity in 2024. In 2025 we can expect a reduction in the astonishingly high contribution of net exports to GDP growth in 2024, balanced by an increase in the disappointingly l...
What does Xi’s meeting with entrepreneurs signal for the private sector?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Feb 2025
Special points to highlight in this report: - Economic data releases in China tend to be skimpy in the first two months of every year, mainly because the floating Spring Festival date (from late January to mid-February) distorts economic activity and makes year-on-year and month-on-month comp...
China reported 5 percent GDP growth in 2024
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Jan 2025
Special points to highlight in this report: - The year 2024 ended pretty much as we had all more or less expected: GDP grew by 5 percent on the dot (almost literally on the dot), driven by surging exports and expanding production, and dragged down by very weak domestic demand. This means that...
What happened in the December Work Conference?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 16 Dec 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: - The December Central Economic Work Conference ended with a series of promises but was short on details. In itself that is not a surprise, as the conference rarely sets detailed policy, and mostly discusses growth targets and the direction of polic...
How will a contraction in China’s trade surplus affect the economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Nov 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: - As always, October data was mixed. While consumption growth may be picking up, it is still not enough to keep pace with slowing growth in production. The result was more CPI deflation and one of the biggest monthly trade surpluses in history. ...