GULF COUNTRIES
Analyst
Justin Alexander
Former Economic Advisor, Qatar Finance MinistryDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
GULF WEEKLY: Israeli strikes on Iran cause major damage, Saudi Q1 GDP revised up, Oman’s tourist numbers decline
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Jun 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: *Israel's strikes caused major damage to military and nuclear sites and killed senior leaders. *Oil, hovering around $75, has not yet priced in a major risk of a closure of Hormuz. *Gulf states, including even Bahrain, cond...
Oil spikes to $75 as Israel strikes Iran and kills the head of its military
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 12 Jun 2025
What happened? Writing a few hours into the attacks, which began around 3am on Friday (7.30pm ET Thur), there is only limited information about what has happened. There were at least six explosions in Tehran, some targeting residential buildings linked to military and scientific families. Civilia...
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ accelerates taper, TSMC moots UAE gigafab, Qatar and Oman fiscal outturns
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jun 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ announced another 0.4m b/d production hike for July, but Brent rose to $66 on US-China talks. * Leaks of the US proposal to Iran suggested an enrichment compromise, contradicted by Trump. * Trump’s metal tariffs wil...
GULF WEEKLY: Aramco issues bonds, Oman records Q1 deficit, Fitch expects mild Dubai property correction
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 May 2025 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $62 amidst reports that OPEC+ could boost July output by more than 0.4m b/d. * Trump said Iran talks are going well and warned Israel not to strike. There could be an interim deal. * Saudi Arabia conducted a...
GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait plans huge debt issuances, Gulf airlines achieve record profits, Bahrain may import Russian LNG
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 May 2025 · 2 responses
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $64 on tariff worries, rising inventories and OPEC+ taper speculation. * A fifth round of US-Iran talks is underway, but Khamenei downplayed the prospects. * NEOM’s green hydrogen plant, opening next year, i...
GULF WEEKLY: Trump tours GCC, PIF launches AI champion, oil eases on talk of an Iran deal, Mumtalakat achieves record profit
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 May 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices eased back to $64 after Trump said on Thursday that an Iran deal might be close. * April data showed only a small rise in OPEC+ V8 output and continued Kazakh overproduction. * The White House counted $1trn in ...
GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain and Saudi deficits widen, Kuwait and Bahrain GDP slows, OPEC+ speeds taper, Flynas IPO announced
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 May 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ will boost output by 0.4 b/d in June, but the oil price still rose to $64 on US-China talks. * The US will fast-track some GCC investments and could ease AI chip export limitations. * Saudi Arabia recorded a -5% of ...
Saudi Q1 fiscal - no sign of spending cuts and a record increase in debt
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 05 May 2025
The Ministry of Finance is getting timelier with its fiscal releases, publishing Q1 today, just five weeks after the quarter end and a week before Aramco's earnings. I will include some more analysis in the weekly report, but a few quick takeaways: The decline in oil revenue was as expected, give...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi GDP revised up by 14%, $7.4bn in debt issued across GCC, Eric Trump launches GCC deals, Oman discusses US FTA
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 May 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil traded lower in advance of an OPEC+ meeting tomorrow that could accelerate the taper. * Despite positive noises after a 3rd US-Iran meeting in Oman, Trump threatened secondary sanctions. * The IMF’s REO forecasts see ...