MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Economics: July data reveal pockets of recovery but multiple vulnerabilities on the economic front
MEXICO · Report · 03 Aug 2026
Mexico's economy enters the second half of 2026 with a headline growth figure that overstates the strength of the underlying recovery. The second-quarter rebound rests heavily on volatile components—agriculture, mining, wholesale trade, and an unusually large jump in residential construction that...
Politics: 2027 electoral scenarios and their implications
MEXICO · Report · 03 Aug 2026
Morena enters the 2027 midterms as the dominant force. Its ceiling, however, is already visible: vote intention hovers between 39% and 47%, with another six to nine points from the PT and PVEM, and the realistic direction of the trend is downward. The party's assets — a consolidated social base, ...
Economics: Mazzucato's document for implementing Plan México is unviable in the context of the current Administration's policies
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2026
Last week, what appears to be a preliminary version of the report "State Transformation for Plan Mexico" was made public, prepared by Mariana Mazzucato and Lara Merling of the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose at University College London. In principle, this presentation is intended to ...
Politics: Shielding allies, targeting rivals, and the politics of Mexican justice amid the erosion of the rule of law
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2026
Two nearly simultaneous scandals have thrust Mexico's fractured rule of law back into the spotlight: leaked audio recordings implicating Baja California Governor Marina del Pilar Ávila in apparent negotiations with U.S. authorities, and the arrest and prosecution of former Governor Ernesto Ruffo ...
Economics: Recent positive gross fixed investment figures should be taken with caution
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jul 2026
Gross fixed investment posted its first annual increase in April 2026 (5.1%) after 20 consecutive months of decline — a figure hailed in official media as a sign of recovery, even though the January-April cumulative figure remains negative (-1.0%) and starts from a very low base of comparison. Th...
Politics: The relationship between organized crime and politics in Mexico and Latin America — what is its magnitude and what does it imply?
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2026
Mexican politics and organized crime are bound together not by a single, uniform relationship but by a layered continuum whose intensity varies sharply from one territory to another. At its most basic, criminal groups purchase the omission of police and officials through bribery; further along th...
Economics: The USMCA—complex, recurring negotiations amid recent sensitive trade imbalances
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jul 2026
On July 1, Mexico, the U.S., and Canada announced that the USMCA will remain in effect through 2036 (rather than through 2042, as Mexico and Canada had proposed), with annual reviews beginning on that date and formally starting on July 20. Talks are expected to be nearly continuous, covering rule...
Politics: U.S. security strategy and the crisis with Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jul 2026
President Sheinbaum revived tension with Washington by making the 2024 kidnapping and handover of "El Mayo" Zambada the centerpiece of her press conferences, accusing former Ambassador Ken Salazar of lying about FBI involvement based on a journalistic report describing a disguised aircraft and an...
Economics: Banxico faces high uncertainty amid still-uncontrolled core inflation and the Fed rate outlook
MEXICO · Report · 07 Jul 2026 · 1 response
Banxico's Governing Board unanimously held the reference rate at 6.5% at its last monetary policy meeting, closing out an easing cycle that had accumulated a 475-basis-point reduction since March 2024. The pace of cuts had been rapid, and the pause comes at a time when core inflation remains abov...