POLAND
Analyst
Jan Hagemejer
Central Bank Division ChiefDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Webinar replay - Poland election results: Political and policy implications
POLAND · Report · 13 Jun 2025
The election of Karol Nawrocki will usher in changes for Poland. What is the new administration's likely impact on policy over the next two and a half years and beyond? What does the outcome mean for the course of Polish politics? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar fea...
Nawrocki will be the next Polish president. The hopes of the government coalition weaken.
POLAND · In Brief · 02 Jun 2025
The election night on June 1st was very stressful, as the initial results were on the edge. The first exit polls showed a slight advantage for Trzaskowski (0.6 pp at 9:00 pm), but the two subsequent late exit polls during the night showed a slight advantage for Nawrocki. However, the early mornin...
Trzaskowski wins (?) the first round by a tiny margin according to exit polls. The second will likely be lost.
POLAND · In Brief · 18 May 2025
According to the exit polls, Rafał Trzaskowski won the first round of presidential elections today. We expected this win (if confirmed by the actual results on Monday or Tuesday), but the exit polls give him only 30.8% vs 29.1% for Nawrocki. The actual election results may be even closer. In our ...
Disinflation and weak growth, revisions of fiscal plans, and volatility in politics
POLAND · Report · 06 May 2025
Inflation in Poland shows signs of easing, and expectations of interest rate cuts are high. Economic recovery remains sluggish, with weak retail sales, manufacturing output, and most confidence indicators. The government has adjusted fiscal plans due to lower tax revenues, increasing the deficit ...
Trzaskowski maintains a stable lead, but uncertainty is high. The prospects for institutional reforms and parliamentary elections.
POLAND · Report · 11 Apr 2025 · 1 response
This report addresses recent poll results, discussing the potential outcome of the elections' first and second rounds. We discuss the quality of the poll results based on recent results and historical outcomes, hidden supporters, and the role of the undecided. We also describe the impact of recen...
Health tax on entrepreneurs lowered (or not). MPC: Has Glapiński just changed his view?
POLAND · In Brief · 07 Apr 2025
News on the health tax After a lengthy disagreement amongst the coalition members (with the left opposing the law), the parliament has proposed a law to lower the health tax on the self-employed. Starting January 1, 2026, the new system will consist of flat-rate and percentage-based parts. The fl...
Still a plateau? MPC arguments continue to weaken
POLAND · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025
Today’s flash release of inflation for March 2025 by Statistics Poland shows the same 4.9% year-on-year (y/y) for the third consecutive month. Our estimate of the core inflation in March stands at 3.5% y/y (net of food, energy and fuel prices). As far as the components of inflation are concerned,...
Monetary policy in the shadow of elections. A look at confidence indicators.
POLAND · Report · 17 Mar 2025
The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) has maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing persistent inflationary pressures driven by rising energy prices, food costs, and services. Its March 12 decision to hold interest rates steady reflects an ongoing belief that inflationary trends remain a concern. The ...
No breakthrough in the "Year of Breakthroughs". Is there disinflation?
POLAND · In Brief · 19 Feb 2025 · 1 response
Governments ambitious (?) investment plans This text borrows from an article that Jan Hagemejer published with CASE's Andrzej Robaszewski on Monday in a Polish leading newspaper – Rzeczpospolita. Introduction On February 10, 2025, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk unveiled an economic plan titled...