RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Inflation deceleration is on track, budget revenues to be trimmed
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2025
Rosstat reported that in May, inflation was almost the same as in April, reaching 0.43% m-o-m. The number was a bit higher than we expected a few weeks ago based on weekly inflation prints. Some of the difference between cumulative inflation based on weekly flash estimates and the official monthl...
Russian macro: abrupt economic deceleration prompts CBR’s decisive action
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025
In mid-May, Rosstat published its preliminary estimate of 1Q25 GDP growth of 1.4% y-o-y. In the aftermath of last year’s 4.3%, growth the 1Q25 number was not only unimpressive but also largely unexpected as public spending once again massively increased at the very end of December 2024, implying ...
Economic growth looks better in April, albeit marginally, prompting more action from the CBR
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2025
Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (flash estimate of economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew y-o-y by 2.0% in April and 1.6% in 4M25. Earlier, we quoted Rosstat while mentioning some improvements in the industry last month...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Jun 2025
The FX market remains strong despite some signs of unfavorable (for Russia) changes in geopolitical rhetoric. Apart from that, the FX market does not pay too much attention to the volatility of the oil market. The globally weakening dollar is another factor that keeps the ruble excessively strong...
The CBR getting ready to reconsider interest rate policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2025
Recent statistics from the CBR showed that as of May 1, household credit contracted by 0.5% YTD and increased by a mere 4.1% y-o-y, i.e., well below inflation (10.23%). From November 2024 to February 2025, household credit contracted in m-o-m terms every month. In March and April, it resumed grow...
Growth in industry to remain slow in 2025 despite some improvements in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 May 2025
After an abrupt slowdown of industrial growth in 1Q25 (1.1% up y-o-y that followed a 5.7% y-o-y increase in 4Q24 and 4.6% in 2024 as a whole), April statistics looked somewhat better, albeit marginally. In 4M25, industrial output grew by 1.5% y-o-y, which pulled the 4M25 tally to 1.2% y-o-y. Seas...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 May 2025
The ruble kept appreciating and broke the USD/RUB80 mark. The last time this level appeared was in the spring of 2023. According to the CBR, household demand on FX shrank by over 50% y-o-y in 4M25. The demand for FX migrated to the primary market of quasi-FX bonds, actively placed in recent month...
Russian macro: Evolving foreign trade payments trim budget revenues
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2025
A few days ago, the Russian Ministry of Finance reported that 4M25 federal budget revenues reached R12.274 trln, i.e., up by 5.0% y-o-y. The figure appears unimpressive amid over 10% y-o-y inflation. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues shrank by 10.3% y-o-y to a mere R3.727. Non-O&G revenues grew by 13.5%...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 May 2025
The sentiment on local financial markets changed to less optimistic amid the May holiday period. On the one hand, investors turned more skeptical about the possibility of de-escalation of the conflict with Ukraine. Hence, the previously anticipated “peace premium” may cause an asset price correct...