UKRAINE
Analysts
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Former Advisor, State Property Fund
Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Director, CASE-UkraineDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
NBU still holds rate at 15.5% with devaluation in focus
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Dec 2025
Despite easing consumer inflation, the NBU Board again left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%, for the sixth time in a row. The NBU states explicitly that the stability of the national currency and the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated financial instruments remain its priorities. In November...
What does Yermak’s dismissal mean amid the new season of the peace deal’ series?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Nov 2025
It took three weeks for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to grasp that the dismissal of his Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak was inevitable. Zelenskiy tried to maneuver to protect his comrade, but the searches the National Anti-Corruption Bureau conducted in Yermak’s apartment became the final trigger, ...
Unprecedented corruption scandal opens the gate for major reshuffle of top echelons
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Nov 2025
The huge corruption scandal within the narrow circle of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (referred to as Mindichgate after Timur Mindich, the central figure of the scandal and Zelenskiy’s business partner) is a major upheaval for both Ukraine’s domestic politics and its international standing amid t...
Trump’s turn on Russia sanctions marks a new stage in the war
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Oct 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump has finally taken a step toward tightening sanctions on Russia, after nine months of flip-flopping, by slapping sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil exporters, Lukoil and Rosneft. We are not overly enthusiastic about this move, since it’s quite possible that within a ...
NBU holds rate at 15.5% amid concerns over depreciation pressures
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Oct 2025
The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% for the fifth time in a row, to the dissatisfaction of the financial sector, which had expected the regulator to begin an easing cycle in Q4 2025, as outlined in its September communication. According to the press release, the NBU is concerned ...
Ukraine’s 2026 budget: social spending up, election calculations in play
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Sep 2025
The Cabinet submitted the draft 2026 spending plan to parliament on September 15th, in accordance with the Budget Code. Central budget revenues are projected at UAH 2.9 trillion (29.1% of GDP), up by UAH 407.5 billion ($9.8 billion) from the current target. State expenditures are set at UAH 4.8 t...
Inflation slows, but NBU holds rate at 15.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Sep 2025
On September 11, the NBU Board, as expected, kept the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%. Inflation has been slowing for the past three months, reaching -0.2% m/m and +13.2% y/y in August. However, poor crop yields and persistent uncertainty with no progress in peace talks continue to weigh on the mon...
Don’t look up: watch the “peace deal”
UKRAINE · Report · 09 Sep 2025
It’s remarkable how world leaders skillfully avert their eyes from harsh realities, continuing to speak of some fanciful end to the war, and "security guarantees" that offer neither security nor guarantees. This diplomatic ballet feels especially detached from reality when viewed from Ukrainian c...
Zelensky backs down in anti-corruption clash: reputation bruised, need for elections grows
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025
After facing sharp criticism from Ukrainian civil society, noisy (though not massive) protests, and unprecedented pressure from European leaders, the European Commission, and IFIs, President Zelensky backed down from his attempt to undermine the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption instituti...