UKRAINE
Analysts
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Former Advisor, State Property Fund
Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Director, CASE-UkraineDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
NBU holds rate at 15% as Iran-driven risks mount
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Mar 2026
The NBU Board held its prime rate at 15.0%, starting from March 20th. The decision was a notable shift in tone from the February communication, driven primarily by the spike in energy prices following the ‘Epic Fury’ operation in Iran, as well as uncertainty surrounding the new IMF program. The N...
Parliamentary crisis pushes Ukraine's IMF programme to the brink
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026
Parliamentary crisis is in full swing. In our last report, "Though Russia's strategies keep failing, the war is far from over," we described how the IMF is struggling with its new program and that the outlook is not particularly encouraging. Today Bloomberg reported that the IMF is now openly rai...
Though Russia's strategies keep failing, the war is far from over
UKRAINE · Report · 10 Mar 2026
The military operation against Iran is welcome news for Ukraine, though not a decisive shift. Iran has been one of Russia's most valuable partners: Shahed drones built on Iranian technology have systematically devastated Ukraine's energy infrastructure, while Tehran helped Moscow evade Western sa...
Entering the fifth year of Russia’s full-scale war: the history teaches us that it teaches nothing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026
Four years ago, in the early hours of February 24, 2022, Russian leader Vladimir Putin bought a one-way ticket to war. He believed it would be an easy journey, simply a matter of reclaiming what he saw as abandoned territory. The hardest part would be weathering a brief wave of 'deep concerns' fr...
IMF program struggles to get off the ground
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Feb 2026
Bloomberg wrote about the issues surrounding the new IMF program. The picture presented by the journalist only needs a few additional details. The Ministry of Finance developed a proposal that was very poorly analyzed. The key issue is that tax compliance costs in Ukraine under the general tax sy...
The energy ceasefire did not last long
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Feb 2026
Predictably, the energy ceasefire did not hold even for a week. Last night, Russia carried out another large-scale strike on energy infrastructure, using hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles. In fact, Russia usually needs about a week to prepare for a massive air attack, and this pause—while...
NBU cuts prime rate by 0.5 pp to 15.0% amid EU funding decision
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Feb 2026
The NBU Board cut the prime policy rate by 0.5 ppt to 15.0%, effective January 30. The decision came against the backdrop of slowing consumer inflation, which decelerated to +0.2% m/m and +8.0% YTD in December 2025. However, the main trigger for the start of a new easing cycle appears to be diffe...
Energy ceasefire… we will stop killing you for a while…
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jan 2026
My short comment on the energy ceasefire. When you have already destroyed everything strategically important that could be destroyed, further attacks bring only marginal additional effect. Yet you still have not achieved the outcome you expected, so you may try to sell your supposed “peacefulness...
Pivotal winter of the war
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Jan 2026
Throughout January, Russia has been bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones, apparently hoping that Ukrainians—caught between prolonged subzero weather and shattered infrastructure—will lose the will to resist and pressure their leaders to accept surrender, perhaps wrapped in the promise of a “p...