UKRAINE
Analysts
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Former Advisor, State Property Fund
Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Director, CASE-UkraineDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
NBU keeps prime rate at 15% despite easing inflation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jun 2026
The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15% at its June meeting today. Consumer inflation eased in May to +0.9% m/m (or +8.2% y/y) from +1.4% m/m (or +8.6% y/y) in April. In early June, Ukraine received the next €2.8 billion wire from the EU, and we seemingly have positive news from Iran. ...
GDP drops 0.6% in Q1 2026, growth outlook remains subdued
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Jun 2026
Ukrainian GDP dropped by 0.6% in Q1 2026, according to the updated estimates of the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine. Devastating missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure through January and February 2026 are behind the GDP drop. On the demand side, the drop is reflected in an 8.0 ...
Another turn in the war: disrupted Russian frontline logistics and blockade of the land corridor to occupied Crimea
UKRAINE · Report · 09 Jun 2026
The war has taken another turn, and this time clearly in Ukraine's favor. Ukrainian forces have expanded their medium-range drone strike capabilities to the point where this instrument of war is now affecting the battlefield strategically. By May, it was unmistakable that Ukrainian forces had in ...
Zelensky's open letter puts Putin in his place
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Jun 2026
Volodymyr Zelensky's open letter to Vladimir Putin is a good communication move. No one expects Putin to accept the invitation to talk, or to treat the letter as a positive signal in any way. The letter's only real audience was Donald Trump and other optimists who believe that Putin genuinely wan...
Ukraine reaches solid financial ground; finally, a better outlook amid endless war
UKRAINE · Report · 12 May 2026
Ukraine’s near-term outlook has improved materially on financing, but not on peace. Presidential Chief of Staff Kyrylo Budanov’s optimistic comments to Bloomberg about “good progress” in negotiations briefly lifted Ukrainian Eurobonds, yet this looked more like market overreaction than a signal o...
NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 15% amid accelerating inflation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 May 2026
At its April 30 meeting, the NBU Board once again left the prime rate unchanged at 15%. The speeding up of inflation due to prolonged tension around the Strait of Hormuz is apparently the reason for this decision. In March, CPI was reported at +1.7% m/m or +7.9% y/y (up from +1.0% m/m or +7.6% y/...
Better at fighting; worse at governing
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Apr 2026
Ukraine’s improved “middle-strike” capability is emerging as one of the more important battlefield shifts of the current phase of the war. What initially looked like another round of optimistic reporting is increasingly supported by the gap between Russia’s still-high assault intensity and its ne...
NBU holds rate at 15% as Iran-driven risks mount
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Mar 2026
The NBU Board held its prime rate at 15.0%, starting from March 20th. The decision was a notable shift in tone from the February communication, driven primarily by the spike in energy prices following the ‘Epic Fury’ operation in Iran, as well as uncertainty surrounding the new IMF program. The N...
Parliamentary crisis pushes Ukraine's IMF programme to the brink
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026
Parliamentary crisis is in full swing. In our last report, "Though Russia's strategies keep failing, the war is far from over," we described how the IMF is struggling with its new program and that the outlook is not particularly encouraging. Today Bloomberg reported that the IMF is now openly rai...