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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Costa Rica elects a woman president for the second time: Laura Fernández wins the presidential election
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 02 Feb 2026

Costa Rica has elected a woman as president for the second time in its history. Laura Fernández secured a victory in the presidential election, former Minister of the Presidency under the administration of Rodrigo Chaves, won the race in the first round after surpassing the 40% threshold required...

Costa Rican presidency still a toss-up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jan 2026

Costa Rica approaches its February 1 presidential election with a tight and uncertain race, marked by high voter volatility and a fragmented political landscape. Polls place incumbent party candidate Laura Fernández at close to the 40% threshold required for a first-round victory, but the large s...

Rising security risks in Guatemala
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 19 Jan 2026

By Fernando Naranjo and Félix Delgado  Guatemala is facing a period of heightened security stress with significant institutional and economic implications. Over the past weekend, inmates seized control of three prisons while gang members carried out coordinated attacks that resulted in the murder...

Surprisingly robust, as remittances lead the way
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 19 Dec 2025

With Costa Rica less than two months away from the February 1 presidential and congressional elections, government candidate Laura Fernández continues to lead in the polls. But given the high proportion of undecided voters, it is still unclear whether the election will be decided in the first rou...

Growing and stable, despite pressure from the north
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Nov 2025

Costa Rica closes 2025 with solid headline data, but growing underlying weaknesses. GDP is set to expand by about 4.2%, yet most of the strength comes from free trade zones, driven almost entirely by medical device manufacturing—now 42% of goods exports, and heavily exposed to U.S. tariff and res...

Glimmers of hope
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Oct 2025

Costa Rica’s economic activity trajectory continues at a relatively good pace, within a very uncertain environment in the country’s dual economy, a situation that has persisted for several years. Since Q1 2024 economic activity has been slowing in the definitive regime, but rising in the FTZ, in ...

Low growth, remittance surges and a presidential election mystery
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Sep 2025

El Salvador suffers from chronically low economic growth, and our April 2025 projections seemed to confirm this weak performance. Recent history, from June 2019 to date, when President Nayib Bukele defeated a paralyzing bipartisanship, has showed no improvement in growth. Restoration of public se...

Adjusting to challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Aug 2025

Guatemala experienced relative macroeconomic stability in H1 2025, despite rising global uncertainty from new U.S. tariffs, migration policy shifts and geopolitical risks. President Bernardo Arévalo has sought to strengthen institutional legitimacy and to advance an ambitious reform agenda focuse...

Hanging tight
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jul 2025

Costa Rica’s economy is entering period of underperformance, masked by currency appreciation and near-zero inflation. GDP growth is slowing more sharply than expected, driven by weakening domestic demand, restrictive monetary policy and global trade tensions, particularly due to new tariffs impo...

Intel to close Costa Rica assembly plant: a wake-up call for a high-value investment strategy
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 28 Jul 2025

Last week, semiconductor giant Intel announced it will shut down its assembly and testing operations in Costa Rica, relocating them in Malaysia and Vietnam. The move represents a significant setback for the country, given Intel’s outsized role in boosting service export figures. Prior to the comp...

Bracing for impact
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Jun 2025

Costa Rica’s economic activity continues along the path set in our short-term economic outlook (see our report of April 2025), although deceleration now looks more pronounced. To face the effects of the current international turmoil charged with lots of uncertainty, we expect the government to ma...

Slowdown and remittance fears
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 May 2025

Costa Rica’s economy is entering a clear slowdown phase, after two years of strong post-pandemic momentum. GDP growth decelerated to 3.9% y/y in Q1 2025, driven by a sharp weakening in the domestic (definitive) regime, which accounts for the bulk of national output. While free trade zone activity...

Slowdown and trepidation
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Apr 2025

El Salvador’s economic trends in 2024 looked like a return to the long-run results characteristic of the pre-pandemic decade: relatively weak economic activity, growth of 2% to 2.5% y/y; weak public sector results, leading to very high public debt; and worries about long-run fiscal sustainability...

Mixed prospects
CENTRAL AMERICA · Presentation · 31 Mar 2025

Guatemala posted solid economic growth in 2024, with GDP rising 3.7%, supported by strong remittances, resilient domestic demand and improving investor confidence under the new administration. Inflation fell to 1.7%, reserves hit a record high and the fiscal deficit narrowed to 1% of GDP. While m...

Volatile times bringing surprising favor to the region
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Feb 2025

Costa Rica dealt with an array of factors that slowed economic activity in 2024. However, real GDP growth outperformed our forecast, although growth was lower than in 2023. Domestic and external exogenous elements influenced the economic deceleration, such as a restrictive monetary policy stance ...

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