Services

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Most frequently asked questions from the CCA Webinar
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Aug 2025

In last week's CCA Webinar I focused on the political developments in the region, including Georgian Dream's chances of winning the local elections in October, Armenian PM Pashinyan's attack on the Armenian Apostolic Church, and the recent escalation of tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia. The...

Replay and Slide Presentation: Political Passions in the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Presentation · 25 Jul 2025

Is Georgian Dream in the driving seat in the runup to the local elections in October? Why is Armenian PM Pashinyan taking a gamble attacking the Church and what does it have to do with the June 2026 Parliamentary Elections? CCA currencies are in a sweet spot, but for how long? Get insight into...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current account positions improve marginally in CCA in 1Q25
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Jul 2025

The 1Q25 data for the CCA economies, which was published over the last week or so, shows that the regional current account (CA) position improved marginally in the first quarter of the year, but remained in deficit. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan narrowed from 2.1 percent of GDP in 4...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The battle of the Caucasus—What is happening between Azerbaijan and Russia and what will be the consequences?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Jul 2025

Key events in the Caucasus are these days being forced upon us with constant regularity. While Pashinyan has resorted to extreme measures to suppress dissent against his unpopular moves to placate Turkey and Azerbaijan and strike a peace deal that the Armenian society sees as a capitulation, Aliy...

Topic of the week - 2Q25 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Jun 2025

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 208-slide detailed description of the economic status-quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the second quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, in...

Armenia: PM Pashinyan resorts to desperate means to cling to power
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2025

Pashinyan is getting rid of the opposition. I have spent a lot of time in the last month or so writing about Armenia, and it seems for good reason. The loss in the municipal elections in Gyumri, the rising momentum to impeach Pashinyan, and the PM's ill-fated attack on the Church are a few exampl...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: South Caucasus—Winners and losers from the Iran-Israel conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Jun 2025

Two of the three South Caucasian nations directly border Iran, and their initial reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict says a lot about their relative positions vis-a-vis the regional battle. While Armenia categorically condemned the "one-sided attack on Iran", Azerbaijan opted for a restrained rh...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA currencies in a sweet spot, but for how long?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Jun 2025

Typically, the Caucasus and Central Asia currencies have faced a weakening RUB, which creates a myriad of problems for countries that tend to run trade deficits with Russia and depend on cross-border remittances from their large neighbor. But 2025 has been different, with the strengthening RUB ge...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—Pashinyan picks a fight he can't win
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Jun 2025

One can't deny that PM Pashinyan has shown remarkable political agility since coming to power in 2018. He faced many adversities during that period, including two lost wars, but he survived those challenges as a genuinely smooth operator. However, the latest fight he has picked—with the Armenian...

May CCA highlights: Armenia and Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, Tajikistan cuts rates, Uzbekistan's FX reserve reach record-highs, Azerbaijan's CPI breaches CPI target range
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 May 2025 · 1 response

I briefly touch on the key macro and political events in the CCA in May: Armenia: GDP expands by 5.2% YoY in 1Q25 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator increases by 5.4% YoY in Apr Armenia: Amulsar mine launch may have positive impact on GDP growth of about 0.5% Armenia: Central Bank keeps po...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia—Key FX flows continue to pour in as the NBG accumulates FX reserves
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 May 2025

The NBG Governor made what appeared to be a surprising statement this week, claiming that this year net FX purchases are already much higher than last year's net sales. Given that last year's net sales amounted to US$434.8mn while net purchases Jan to Mar were only US$101.7mn, net FX acquisitions...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—An avalanche of impeachment proposals and the weakening economy to increasingly challenge Nikol Pashinyan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 May 2025

Misfortunes tend to occur in succession or clusters rather than in isolation, and this applies in full force to PM Pashinyan. Despite all the fanfare surrounding the March announcement that the draft peace deal with Azerbaijan had been finalized, nothing has been signed, while April brought about...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian Dream in the driver's seat six months before the local elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 May 2025

Six months after the Oct Parliamentary vote, the post-election environment in Georgia has evolved in line with my (at the time) counter-consensus forecast, in which I argued before the ballot day: "In short, in my view, there will be a four-step process, including: 1) a simple majority win for G...

Apr CCA highlights: Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan keep policy rates unchanged, Armenia concludes 5th review of IMF's SBA, Georgia defies expectations and grows strongly, by 9.3 % YoY in 1Q
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 May 2025

I review key economic and political events in the CCA in April: Armenia: CPI rises to 3.3% YoY in Mar Armenia: Monthly economic indicator grows by 3.7% YoY in Mar Armenia: IMF and Armenia reach staff level agreement on the Fifth Review of the SBA Armenia: FX reserves jump in Mar on Eurobon...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA public external debt service appears (mostly) manageable over 2025-26
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Apr 2025

I continue exploring the external side of the CCA economies as the more challenging global backdrop in the wake of Trump's tariffs may add to the already worsening CA dynamics that I discussed earlier in Apr. In this report I examine the public external debt profile and debt service for 2025 and...

Copyright 2025 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.