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TOPIC OF THE WEEK: From Tehran to the pump: oil shock inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Mar 2026

The adverse oil shock emanating from the Iran crisis risks derailing the disinflation story that I expected across the CCA this year. Inflation across the region appeared to have peaked in 2025, with most economies projected to see easing price pressures in 2026, including on slower growth, a fav...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia regains investor interest in 2025
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Mar 2026

This week the Georgian statistical office reported the much awaited full-year (2025) data on FDI. Similar to the tourist numbers I discussed earlier, FDI has been the subject of intense discussion and speculation over the course of the last two years as the government and the opposition have offe...

Azerbaijan’s Iran crisis mood: anxiety, not triumph
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

I spent much of the weekend wading through Azerbaijani commentary on the latest round of conflict with Iran (Iran's alleged drone strike against Nakhchivan, the militarized response from Baku, Iran's military public appeal to Azerbaijan to expel Israelis from its territory, as the latter presumab...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Opaque BoP flows sustain Kyrgyzstan’s sanctions overhang
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Mar 2026

I previously hypothesized a direct link between what I dubbed the "rogue" E&O in Kyrgyzstan's BoP and the sanctions on the banks that the EU imposed last Oct. The Feb 26 visit of EU Sanctions Envoy David O'Sullivan to Bishkek to warn the government that its heavy “re-exports” to Russia of dual-us...

Shockwaves from Tehran: Quantifying the Economic Impact on the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

In my Mon note I expressed bewilderment at the lack of proper reaction of Armenian authorities to the fiery situation unfolding at their southern border. In a video gone viral in the country, the PM Pashinyan was caught on camera munching on corn in a bus that was a on campaign tour in the countr...

Shadow over Ararat: Strikes on Iran reveal Armenia's strategic vulnerability
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 02 Mar 2026

The aftershocks of the latest round of missile strikes in Iran have been quick to reverberate across the South Caucasus, raising fresh questions about the security, trade routes, and economic resiliency of Armenia. Instability on Armenia’s southern border could rapidly evolve into a structural ch...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—is the diamond trade making a comeback?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Feb 2026

I have over the last couple of years liked to compare the economic performance of Armenia and Georgia. My pithy conclusion has been that the soaring GDP growth that averaged 10 percent annually in 2022 and 2023 in both countries reflected similar underlying reasons related to the favorable effect...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The debt implications of upgrading Armenia's nuclear industry
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Feb 2026

Armenia and USA signed this month a joint statement of cooperation on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The government and newswires have hurried to conclude that the USA would provide US$9bn as part of the deal, which ultimately results in constructing a small modular (nuclear) reactor (SMR). ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia notches another record-breaking year in tourism
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Feb 2026

Tourism in Georgia has traditionally been an important income generator for the economy, having brought on average about 8.6 percent of GDP annually over 2010-2025 (and about 12.5 percent of GDP in both 2024 and 2025). Naturally, then, the events of the last two years spanning the adoption of the...

Kyrgyzstan: "Two friends never fight for power"
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026 · 1 response

President Sadyr Japarov clears the decks ahead of a high-stakes presidential race looming larger. For the second time since Oct Kyrgyzstan has come to the fore in terms of offering us a glimpse of how the obscure political field in the country operates. In a largely unexpected, albeit probably no...

Why is the Uzbek Soum losing some altitude in early 2026?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

While I am on topic (see my report "Uzbekistan is gingerly breaking away from the twin-deficit curse"), I offer my pithy thoughts on the early-year softening of the UZS since I have been prompted by client questions.  The 2025 unusual strengthening of regional currencies (vs the US$) figured prom...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is gingerly breaking away from the twin-deficit curse
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Probably the most cited economic risks for Uzbekistan over the years have been its persistent CA and fiscal gaps. Indeed, the twin deficits ballooned from a virtual balance in 2017 to a hefty 12.6% of GDP in 2023. The surge in fiscal spending in the post-COVID years and political cycle-related lo...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The South Caucasus through a strategic lens
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Jan 2026

A new era is dawning in the South Caucasus, in which politics, geopolitical developments, and a changing energy and security picture will increasingly feature as key investment variables, rather than background noise. Elections will take place in 2026 in Armenia, consolidation in politics is unde...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Pashinyan is looking for agents of the KGB and "traitors of Christ" in Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Jan 2026

The start of the political year in Armenia has been rich in events and indicative of the kind of fraught environment that we are to face in the runup to the all-important Parliamentary vote in Jun. This is not surprising as I argued in my Year-Ahead Outlook that I fully expected Armenia to be the...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current accounts posted further gains in 3Q25, reinforcing improvement in external buffers
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Jan 2026

Wading through BoP data may not be the most exciting thing in economic analysis, including because it is quite backward looking, but in my mostly frontier countries it helps elucidate key insights on the external side. The 3Q25 data for the CCA space has now been published for all economies save ...

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