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2026 CCA Outlook: The spotlight sharpens—and it lands on Yerevan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Forecast · 12 Dec 2025

Without a doubt, the key political economy event in the Caucasus and Central Asia next year is the upcoming Parliamentary vote in Armenia next Jun. The elections are, of course, interesting not only for the academics and analytics of them, but also for their geo-economic and geopolitical implica...

Nov CCA highlights: Armenia/Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, while Kyrgyzstan hikes and Tajikistan eases, Azerbaijan looks to ramp up oil/gas production from 2029, Georgia/Uzbekistan see sovereign outlook improvements
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Dec 2025

For a while, I have skipped the more mundane monthly publication of the key economic/political/geopolitical events in the CCA as more pressing writing issues have kept my pen occupied. The Nov summary rectifies this lapse, and, for the first time, adds Kyrgyzstan to the rest of the usually covere...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia leading, Armenia rising, Azerbaijan stable in South Caucasus Banking Review
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Nov 2025

I just completed a comparative report of the banking sectors and broader business climates of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan across 17 thematic pillars. My South Caucasus Banking & Investment Review 2025 finds that Georgia is still leading the South Caucasus in banking and investment metrics wi...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Local ballot, national message—what Vagharshapat says about Armenia's 2026 Parliamentary Elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Nov 2025

This week I complete my trilogy on the political and geopolitical backdrop in the South Caucasus by looking at the results from the important local elections in Armenia's Vagharshapat (the 5th largest city in the country). I use the results to test my early-month theory (and projection) about how...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia is not on my mind
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Nov 2025

I feel compelled to write this note on Georgia given that it has again hit the headlines, with the European Commission's annual enlargement report concluding that the country is a "candidate in name only", as well as the government's lawsuit before the Constitutional Court seeking to ban three ke...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Who stands to dominate the ballot box in Armenia’s 2026 showdown?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Nov 2025

This year I have spent a considerable amount of time discussing and analyzing the political backdrop in Armenia, including because, with the political cycles over in Azerbaijan and Georgia, it is now Armenia's turn to hold parliamentary elections next Jun. However, in contrast to Georgia, where I...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Rogue E&O bring about fresh EU action on Kyrgyz banks
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 31 Oct 2025

Earlier in the month I argued that one should worry less about the snap Parliamentary vote in Kyrgyzstan and pay more attention to possible fresh sanctions on the economy, chiefly the banking sector. That threat has now materialized, with the EU slapping transaction bans on two Kyrgyz banks. I hy...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Is Uzbekistan poised to close the chapter on fiscal profligacy?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Oct 2025

Wading through the 138 pages of Uzbekistan’s 2026–2028 Fiscal Strategy is a test of endurance, and of language skills, since the document exists only in Uzbek. However, it is very much worth the effort as it provides a glimpse into government's thinking about the fiscal envelope in the next coupl...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current accounts in the CCA take a positive turn in 2Q25
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Oct 2025

Poring through BoP data may not be the most exciting thing in economic analysis, including because it is quite backward looking, but in my mostly frontier countries it helps elucidate key insights on the external side. The 2Q25 data for the CCA space has now been published for all economies save ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Kyrgyzstan’s early polls: Should investors flinch—or lean in?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 10 Oct 2025

One would be forgiven for fretting about the snap parliamentary vote in Kyrgyzstan on Nov 30th. In all of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan has had the largest share of early votes (parliamentary and presidential), and those have often been associated with political crises and mass protests. In turn, my a...

Georgian Dream sweeps local vote, as expected
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2025

The local elections held yesterday, Oct 4th, did not offer any surprises as the ruling Georgian Dream sailed to an easy victory. I argued recently that Georgian Dream is in the driver's seat with regard to the local elections, including because of the rifts in the opposition and its lack of succe...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: UZS benefits from a rare confluence of favorable external conditions
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Oct 2025

Last week, I argued that CCA appreciation vs. the US$ has come to an end and may only resume on a sustainable basis should the RUB start strengthening again (the RUB has already retraced some of its recent losses). I stressed that the Uzbekistani sum was the only CCA currency that did not quite f...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA currency appreciation has come to an end
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Sep 2025

In mid-June I asked how long the CCA currency strength (vs the US$) would continue. My key thesis was that, beyond the myriad relevant macro stats, this would critically depend on the RUB. In short, I argued that the ongoing strengthening of local currencies vs the US$ would only have legs until ...

Topic of the week - 3Q2025 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Sep 2025

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 206-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the third quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan's fast growing population—a blessing or a curse?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Sep 2025

About two years ago, spurred by William MacAskill’s “What We Owe The Future”, a book that focuses on long-termism and effective altruism, I tried to explore what the idea that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time might mean for the Caucasus and Central A...

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