GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Mexico's economy enters the second half of 2026 with a headline growth figure that overstates the strength of the underlying recovery. The second-quarter rebound rests heavily on volatile components—agriculture, mining, wholesale trade, and an unusually large jump in residential construction that...

Politics: 2027 electoral scenarios and their implications

MEXICO · Report · 03 Aug 2026

Morena enters the 2027 midterms as the dominant force. Its ceiling, however, is already visible: vote intention hovers between 39% and 47%, with another six to nine points from the PT and PVEM, and the realistic direction of the trend is downward. The party's assets — a consolidated social base, ...

Economics: Mazzucato's document for implementing Plan México is unviable in the context of the current Administration's policies

MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2026

Last week, what appears to be a preliminary version of the report "State Transformation for Plan Mexico" was made public, prepared by Mariana Mazzucato and Lara Merling of the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose at University College London. In principle, this presentation is intended to ...

Politics: Shielding allies, targeting rivals, and the politics of Mexican justice amid the erosion of the rule of law

MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2026

Two nearly simultaneous scandals have thrust Mexico's fractured rule of law back into the spotlight: leaked audio recordings implicating Baja California Governor Marina del Pilar Ávila in apparent negotiations with U.S. authorities, and the arrest and prosecution of former Governor Ernesto Ruffo ...

Economics: Recent positive gross fixed investment figures should be taken with caution

MEXICO · Report · 21 Jul 2026

Gross fixed investment posted its first annual increase in April 2026 (5.1%) after 20 consecutive months of decline — a figure hailed in official media as a sign of recovery, even though the January-April cumulative figure remains negative (-1.0%) and starts from a very low base of comparison. Th...

Politics: The relationship between organized crime and politics in Mexico and Latin America — what is its magnitude and what does it imply?

MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2026

Mexican politics and organized crime are bound together not by a single, uniform relationship but by a layered continuum whose intensity varies sharply from one territory to another. At its most basic, criminal groups purchase the omission of police and officials through bribery; further along th...

Economics: The USMCA—complex, recurring negotiations amid recent sensitive trade imbalances

MEXICO · Report · 13 Jul 2026

On July 1, Mexico, the U.S., and Canada announced that the USMCA will remain in effect through 2036 (rather than through 2042, as Mexico and Canada had proposed), with annual reviews beginning on that date and formally starting on July 20. Talks are expected to be nearly continuous, covering rule...

Politics: U.S. security strategy and the crisis with Mexico

MEXICO · Report · 13 Jul 2026

President Sheinbaum revived tension with Washington by making the 2024 kidnapping and handover of "El Mayo" Zambada the centerpiece of her press conferences, accusing former Ambassador Ken Salazar of lying about FBI involvement based on a journalistic report describing a disguised aircraft and an...

Economics: Banxico faces high uncertainty amid still-uncontrolled core inflation and the Fed rate outlook

MEXICO · Report · 07 Jul 2026 · 1 response

Banxico's Governing Board unanimously held the reference rate at 6.5% at its last monetary policy meeting, closing out an easing cycle that had accumulated a 475-basis-point reduction since March 2024. The pace of cuts had been rapid, and the pause comes at a time when core inflation remains abov...

Politics: Mexico's 2027 midterm elections: early maneuvering, internal tensions, and a fragmented opposition

MEXICO · Report · 06 Jul 2026

With eleven months to go before Mexico's midterm elections — in which 500 congressional seats, 17 governorships, and nearly two thousand municipal presidencies are at stake — Morena has already launched its candidate selection process, months ahead of what the law permits. Exploiting a strategy r...

Politics: Justice in Mexico—the great deficit

MEXICO · Report · 29 Jun 2026

Mexico's justice system faces a structural crisis of historic proportions, one that now carries direct geopolitical consequences. The US demand to extradite ten ruling-party politicians linked to criminal organizations has forced President Sheinbaum into an impossible dilemma: complying risks a s...

Economics: June data signal persistent economic weakness, policy uncertainty, and rising fiscal risks

MEXICO · Report · 29 Jun 2026

Mexico's economy continues to underperform in 2026, with our GDP growth forecast at just 0.9% for the full year. Private investment has contracted for 19 consecutive months and is expected to remain weak throughout the year, held back by uncertainty — including about the USMCA renegotiation and t...

Economics: A weak labor market in the January–May 2026 period

MEXICO · Report · 22 Jun 2026

Mexico's labor market in the first four months of 2026 reflects the broader weakness of the economy. Total employment grew just 1.2% year on year in April, with growth concentrated almost entirely in the informal sector (up 2.0%), while formal employment contracted slightly (-0.1%). This marks th...

Politics: The 4T Government and Morena amid Latin America's political realignment

MEXICO · Report · 22 Jun 2026

Less than two years into her presidency, Claudia Sheinbaum faces compounding vulnerabilities that point toward a difficult remainder of her term. A stagnant economy, rigid public finances, deepening ties between Morena and organized crime, and unmet social demands across security, healthcare, and...

Economics: Development banking in Mexico—a persistent deterioration

MEXICO · Report · 15 Jun 2026

Although development banking is one of the main pillars for achieving the goals of Plan México and the Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Wellbeing announced by President Sheinbaum as the strategies to reactivate investment and economic growth, in practice development banking has...