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The NBU Board made one more tightening step, raising the key policy rate by 0.5 pp to 16%, effective from September 18. Inflation accelerated to 8.1% y/y in August, slightly exceeding the NBU forecast, while higher-than-expected fuel prices amid the escalation in the Middle East and intensified R...

Q2 GDP beats Q1, but H2 outlook darkens as air strikes intensify

UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Sep 2026

Ukraine's GDP growth accelerated to 0.4% y/y in Q2 2026, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine — revised down from the preliminary estimate of +0.6% y/y. This follows a 0.6% y/y contraction in Q1 2026. The improvement was driven mainly by a smaller negative contribution from net ex...

Bracing for a decisive fifth winter

UKRAINE · Report · 08 Sep 2026

American envoys of Donald Trump — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — are visiting Kyiv for what is being billed as a new round of negotiations. No one expects a breakthrough in these "peace talks," but the visit serves as a gesture of courtesy by the U.S. president, keeping up the appearance that ...

From refineries to airspace: Russia's war enters a new phase of escalation

UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Sep 2026

The war is clearly entering a new phase of escalation. Widely discussed and widely expected, it is now unfolding in real time. Zelenskiy's statement on September 1 that Russian airspace will effectively be closing marks a new level of pressure on Moscow and St Petersburg — one that the Russian le...

Bracing for a comprehensive Black Sea seaports blockade

UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Aug 2026

We are heading toward a complete blockade of Black Sea seaports, affecting both Ukraine and Russia. To understand what's happening, let's start with a broader view of the battlefield in Russia's war against Ukraine. Russian forces on the ground have effectively stalled, with no meaningful advance...

NBU Inflation Report: a new narrative — weapons production as the growth story

UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Aug 2026

The NBU has released a new Inflation Report, which marks a significant shift in tone compared to what we've seen from the central bank previously. The first point relates to the worsened inflation outlook already flagged in the NBU's communications following the Board's decision on the key policy...

Improved mood in Washington insufficient to combat winter of ballistic strikes

UKRAINE · Report · 04 Aug 2026

Sentiment within Washington's ruling circles appears to be gradually shifting in Ukraine's favor. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s July 28 meeting in Washington with U.S. President Donald Trump was the first to unfold amid relatively positive sentiment, and information backdrop. There is bipartisan...

Monetary policy: NBU raises key policy rate to 15.5% in a preventive move amid rising risks

UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jul 2026

The NBU Board raised the key policy rate by 0.5 ppt to 15.5%, effective 31 July. This was the first rate increase since the beginning of the year. Recall that in January the NBU cut the rate from 15.5% to 15.0%, signalling the start of an easing cycle. However, no further easing followed since th...

Momentum shifts: Zelensky visits Washington amid improving US sentiment toward Ukraine

UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Jul 2026

Today’s meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in Washington was different from what we have grown accustomed to. For the first time under this administration, Ukraine’s president arrived in the American capital against a genuinely favorable news backdrop and amid moderately positive...

Zelensky reshuffles military leadership as mobilization pressures mount

UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2026

After a week of street protests over the dismissal of former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi with Mykhailo Drapatyi. Recall that after the dismissal of the Svyrydenko Cabinet, one narrative began to spread that the enti...

Ukraine secures IMF funds, but the political cost of implementation is mounting

UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jul 2026

The IMF Executive Board completed the First Review of Ukraine's four-year, $8.1 billion Extended Fund Facility on July 20, releasing an immediate disbursement of about $690 million. Cumulative disbursements under the programme now reach roughly $2.2 billion — about 27% of the full package, five m...

Zelensky's decision to remove Fedorov sparks fury: street protest announced

UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jul 2026

As speculation over the removal of the Svyrydenko Cabinet built through the week, the consensus among Kyiv insiders converged to the point that the real target of the whole maneuver was to remove Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. The wider cabinet reshuffle, among other things, allowed for addre...

Unexpected Cabinet reshuffle: Svyrydenko out, Naftogaz chief Koretskiy likely to take the lead

UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Jul 2026

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced today that he has decided to reshuffle the Cabinet and replace current Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko with someone else — the most likely candidate being the head of Naftogaz, Sergiy Koretskiy. Other personnel changes have also been announced. Although it ...

Losing Crimea would end Putin’s regime, so new escalation likely

UKRAINE · Report · 07 Jul 2026

Ukraine's drone-based logistical blockade of Crimea is proving effective, while still in its early stages of scaling, backed by tens of billions of dollars in EU funding. Unlike Kherson in 2022, when Washington restrained Ukraine from destroying the encircled Russian grouping, external limits on ...

NBU keeps prime rate at 15% despite easing inflation

UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jun 2026

The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15% at its June meeting today. Consumer inflation eased in May to +0.9% m/m (or +8.2% y/y) from +1.4% m/m (or +8.6% y/y) in April. In early June, Ukraine received the next €2.8 billion wire from the EU, and we seemingly have positive news from Iran. ...