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NBU holds rate at 15% as Iran-driven risks mount
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Mar 2026

The NBU Board held its prime rate at 15.0%, starting from March 20th. The decision was a notable shift in tone from the February communication, driven primarily by the spike in energy prices following the ‘Epic Fury’ operation in Iran, as well as uncertainty surrounding the new IMF program. The N...

Parliamentary crisis pushes Ukraine's IMF programme to the brink
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026

Parliamentary crisis is in full swing. In our last report, "Though Russia's strategies keep failing, the war is far from over," we described how the IMF is struggling with its new program and that the outlook is not particularly encouraging. Today Bloomberg reported that the IMF is now openly rai...

Though Russia's strategies keep failing, the war is far from over
UKRAINE · Report · 10 Mar 2026

The military operation against Iran is welcome news for Ukraine, though not a decisive shift. Iran has been one of Russia's most valuable partners: Shahed drones built on Iranian technology have systematically devastated Ukraine's energy infrastructure, while Tehran helped Moscow evade Western sa...

Entering the fifth year of Russia’s full-scale war: the history teaches us that it teaches nothing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

Four years ago, in the early hours of February 24, 2022, Russian leader Vladimir Putin bought a one-way ticket to war. He believed it would be an easy journey, simply a matter of reclaiming what he saw as abandoned territory. The hardest part would be weathering a brief wave of 'deep concerns' fr...

IMF program struggles to get off the ground
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Feb 2026

Bloomberg wrote about the issues surrounding the new IMF program. The picture presented by the journalist only needs a few additional details. The Ministry of Finance developed a proposal that was very poorly analyzed. The key issue is that tax compliance costs in Ukraine under the general tax sy...

The energy ceasefire did not last long
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Feb 2026

Predictably, the energy ceasefire did not hold even for a week. Last night, Russia carried out another large-scale strike on energy infrastructure, using hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles. In fact, Russia usually needs about a week to prepare for a massive air attack, and this pause—while...

NBU cuts prime rate by 0.5 pp to 15.0% amid EU funding decision
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Feb 2026

The NBU Board cut the prime policy rate by 0.5 ppt to 15.0%, effective January 30. The decision came against the backdrop of slowing consumer inflation, which decelerated to +0.2% m/m and +8.0% YTD in December 2025. However, the main trigger for the start of a new easing cycle appears to be diffe...

Energy ceasefire… we will stop killing you for a while…
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jan 2026

My short comment on the energy ceasefire. When you have already destroyed everything strategically important that could be destroyed, further attacks bring only marginal additional effect. Yet you still have not achieved the outcome you expected, so you may try to sell your supposed “peacefulness...

Pivotal winter of the war
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Jan 2026

Throughout January, Russia has been bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones, apparently hoping that Ukrainians—caught between prolonged subzero weather and shattered infrastructure—will lose the will to resist and pressure their leaders to accept surrender, perhaps wrapped in the promise of a “p...

Blackout 20/4: what’s next?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026

Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities such as Odesa, Kharkiv, and Dnipro are experiencing blackouts, with only short periods when life briefly returns to normal before the next airstrike. All of this is happening against the backdrop of prolonged freezing weather, with temperatures around -10 to ...

Public opinion on national elections under a ceasefire
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jan 2026

While Kyiv is going through another blackout in freezing 10–15°C weather, it’s a good moment to add a few more brushstrokes to the broader picture of Ukrainian public sentiment. The peace-deal plan currently being discussed—and one that Donald Trump believes Vladimir Putin is still willing to acc...

Why Maduro’s fall is good news in Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jan 2026

From a bird’s-eye view, the U.S. operation in Venezuela resembles what Russia attempted to do in Ukraine in 2022—and failed. Yet despite this parallel, the developments are viewed largely positively in Ukraine. Ukrainians have learned the hard way what real politics looks like, and we have no ill...

Dotty old man: smile & wave
UKRAINE · Report · 06 Jan 2026

Though the situation for Ukraine is quite tough, it’s hard not to smile at the latest wave of peace deal efforts. Russian President Vladimir Putin openly plays with U.S. President Donald Trump’s aspirations to win a Nobel Peace Prize, using a tease-and-retreat approach: maintaining the illusion o...

Zelenskiy Appoints Head of Military Intelligence as Chief of Staff
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Jan 2026

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced today that he has proposed General Kyryl Budanov, head of military intelligence, to take the post of his Chief of Staff, replacing the controversial Andriy Yermak. Budanov is very popular among Ukrainians due to his effectiveness against Russian forces. He ...

Public opinion on "peace deal": territorial concessions strongly rejected
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2025

We do not cover much the new wave of ‘peace deal’ efforts because Ukrainians are very skeptical of the process. Vladimir Putin’s goal is to dismantle the Ukrainian state, and his involvement in Trump’s "peace deal" talks is simply aimed at delaying a new wave of sanctions, driving a wedge between...

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