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Sentiment within Washington's ruling circles appears to be gradually shifting in Ukraine's favor. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s July 28 meeting in Washington with U.S. President Donald Trump was the first to unfold amid relatively positive sentiment, and information backdrop. There is bipartisan...

Monetary policy: NBU raises key policy rate to 15.5% in a preventive move amid rising risks

UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jul 2026

The NBU Board raised the key policy rate by 0.5 ppt to 15.5%, effective 31 July. This was the first rate increase since the beginning of the year. Recall that in January the NBU cut the rate from 15.5% to 15.0%, signalling the start of an easing cycle. However, no further easing followed since th...

Momentum shifts: Zelensky visits Washington amid improving US sentiment toward Ukraine

UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Jul 2026

Today’s meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in Washington was different from what we have grown accustomed to. For the first time under this administration, Ukraine’s president arrived in the American capital against a genuinely favorable news backdrop and amid moderately positive...

Zelensky reshuffles military leadership as mobilization pressures mount

UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2026

After a week of street protests over the dismissal of former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi with Mykhailo Drapatyi. Recall that after the dismissal of the Svyrydenko Cabinet, one narrative began to spread that the enti...

Ukraine secures IMF funds, but the political cost of implementation is mounting

UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jul 2026

The IMF Executive Board completed the First Review of Ukraine's four-year, $8.1 billion Extended Fund Facility on July 20, releasing an immediate disbursement of about $690 million. Cumulative disbursements under the programme now reach roughly $2.2 billion — about 27% of the full package, five m...

Zelensky's decision to remove Fedorov sparks fury: street protest announced

UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jul 2026

As speculation over the removal of the Svyrydenko Cabinet built through the week, the consensus among Kyiv insiders converged to the point that the real target of the whole maneuver was to remove Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. The wider cabinet reshuffle, among other things, allowed for addre...

Unexpected Cabinet reshuffle: Svyrydenko out, Naftogaz chief Koretskiy likely to take the lead

UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Jul 2026

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced today that he has decided to reshuffle the Cabinet and replace current Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko with someone else — the most likely candidate being the head of Naftogaz, Sergiy Koretskiy. Other personnel changes have also been announced. Although it ...

Losing Crimea would end Putin’s regime, so new escalation likely

UKRAINE · Report · 07 Jul 2026

Ukraine's drone-based logistical blockade of Crimea is proving effective, while still in its early stages of scaling, backed by tens of billions of dollars in EU funding. Unlike Kherson in 2022, when Washington restrained Ukraine from destroying the encircled Russian grouping, external limits on ...

NBU keeps prime rate at 15% despite easing inflation

UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jun 2026

The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15% at its June meeting today. Consumer inflation eased in May to +0.9% m/m (or +8.2% y/y) from +1.4% m/m (or +8.6% y/y) in April. In early June, Ukraine received the next €2.8 billion wire from the EU, and we seemingly have positive news from Iran. ...

GDP drops 0.6% in Q1 2026, growth outlook remains subdued

UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Jun 2026

Ukrainian GDP dropped by 0.6% in Q1 2026, according to the updated estimates of the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine. Devastating missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure through January and February 2026 are behind the GDP drop. On the demand side, the drop is reflected in an 8.0 ...

Another turn in the war: disrupted Russian frontline logistics and blockade of the land corridor to occupied Crimea

UKRAINE · Report · 09 Jun 2026

The war has taken another turn, and this time clearly in Ukraine's favor. Ukrainian forces have expanded their medium-range drone strike capabilities to the point where this instrument of war is now affecting the battlefield strategically. By May, it was unmistakable that Ukrainian forces had in ...

Zelensky's open letter puts Putin in his place

UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Jun 2026

Volodymyr Zelensky's open letter to Vladimir Putin is a good communication move. No one expects Putin to accept the invitation to talk, or to treat the letter as a positive signal in any way. The letter's only real audience was Donald Trump and other optimists who believe that Putin genuinely wan...

Ukraine reaches solid financial ground; finally, a better outlook amid endless war

UKRAINE · Report · 12 May 2026

Ukraine’s near-term outlook has improved materially on financing, but not on peace. Presidential Chief of Staff Kyrylo Budanov’s optimistic comments to Bloomberg about “good progress” in negotiations briefly lifted Ukrainian Eurobonds, yet this looked more like market overreaction than a signal o...

NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 15% amid accelerating inflation

UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 May 2026

At its April 30 meeting, the NBU Board once again left the prime rate unchanged at 15%. The speeding up of inflation due to prolonged tension around the Strait of Hormuz is apparently the reason for this decision. In March, CPI was reported at +1.7% m/m or +7.9% y/y (up from +1.0% m/m or +7.6% y/...

Better at fighting; worse at governing

UKRAINE · Report · 07 Apr 2026

Ukraine’s improved “middle-strike” capability is emerging as one of the more important battlefield shifts of the current phase of the war. What initially looked like another round of optimistic reporting is increasingly supported by the gap between Russia’s still-high assault intensity and its ne...