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Zelensky backs down in anti-corruption clash: reputation bruised, need for elections grows
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025

After facing sharp criticism from Ukrainian civil society, noisy (though not massive) protests, and unprecedented pressure from European leaders, the European Commission, and IFIs, President Zelensky backed down from his attempt to undermine the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption instituti...

NBU holds rate at 15.5% as poor crop outlook fuels inflation risks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jul 2025

On July 24th, yesterday, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% for the third consecutive time. Concerns about the 2025 crop outlook are among the key reasons behind this decision. Wheat yields are expected to be about 5% lower than last year, and projections for other crops are als...

Zelenskiy dismantles anti-corruption independence in power consolidation push
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has behaved poorly in recent weeks. The President’s Office (through the Cabinet) derailed the reboot of the Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine (ESBU) by rejecting an independent candidate selected by a commission that included international experts. The ESBU reboot ...

"New" cabinet or musical chairs reshuffle?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jul 2025

The Ukrainian leadership has launched a Cabinet reshuffle. The possible replacement of former Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal had been discussed for several years, but he remained too convenient for President Volodymyr Zelensky—flexible and without any personal agenda—making him easy to keep in plac...

Desperate for any minor win, Putin escalates terror tactics
UKRAINE · Report · 30 Jun 2025

While peace talks lead nowhere, we’ve shifted our attention back to the front lines—where developments on the ground have a real impact in deterring Russian aggression, unlike the endless cycle of negotiations. As of this writing, reported Russian losses in Ukraine have exceeded 1 million kill...

NBU holds prime rate at 15.5% as easing delayed pending inflation peak
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Jun 2025

As expected, the NBU’s April signal about possible easing moves in June did not materialize. At today’s meeting, the NBU Board kept the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%. The decision was influenced by unseasonably cold spring weather, which led to rising food prices—particularly for fruits and veget...

Summer offensive looms, on the heels of performative diplomacy
UKRAINE · Report · 27 May 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump continues to consistently fail in delivering on his promise to end Russian aggression. His threats to increase pressure on the Kremlin are clearly not being taken seriously. Each time Trump makes a statement, Russia responds with defiance or escalated brutality—yet Tru...

Improved U.S.–Ukraine resource deal offers hope amid uncertainty
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 May 2025

The U.S. and Ukraine have signed a resource deal. At the time of writing, the document had not yet been released, but numerous comments have emerged from individuals who have reviewed it. According to these comments, the document remains fairly general, but it outlines a well-balanced framework. ...

Trump’s peace deal: a fairy tale that ends in failure
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Apr 2025

Despite the hullabaloo over "peace deal" progress over the past month, nothing has fundamentally changed: Russia continues its intense missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities and towns, and heavy fighting along the frontline persists. U.S. President Donald Trump's "peace by force" appr...

Mineral deal memorandum: agreement to talk about talks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Apr 2025

Ukrainian authorities have announced the online signing of a Memorandum of Intent for a potential mineral deal with the U.S. The document is provided below. Apparently, officials needed something to show at least nominal progress—and this memorandum of intent, essentially a declaration to keep ta...

NBU holds prime rate unchanged at 15.5% amid eased FX pressure
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025

The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% at today’s meeting, contrary to our expectations. Despite inflation accelerating in March to +1.5% m/m and +14.6% y/y, the NBU noted it sees some signs of easing, though it acknowledged that inflationary expectations remain high. Most likely, t...

Kyiv signals election readiness in bid to counter Putin’s game
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025

The Economist reported that Volodymyr Zelenskiy has instructed his team to prepare for elections as early as this summer. Allegedly, Parliament may lift Martial Law in May, following a potential ceasefire expected to begin on April 20th. Frankly, as of today, all of this sounds like a highly unre...

The ceasefire illusion: fake it 'til you make it
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Mar 2025

The new U.S. administration is clearly aiming to disengage from Ukraine, and to restore ties with Russia. U.S. President Donald Trump attempted to shift the blame for a potentially failed peace deal to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as the public witnessed during the February 28th Oval ...

NBU raises prime rate to 15.5% amid high inflation, depreciation pressures, and growing tensions with U.S.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Mar 2025

The NBU Board has predictably raised the prime rate for the third time, increasing it by 1.0 ppt to 15.5%, effective March 7. Additionally, the NBU adjusted the 'working' rates for the banking system by 1 ppt. On top of that, it widened the spread by 1.0 ppt between the prime rate and the three-m...

Oval Office showdown: no peace deal in sight, Ukraine fights on amid tough road ahead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2025

I expected Trump’s peace initiative to fail at some stage, but the way it unfolded in the Oval Office was particularly harsh. It took me some time to gather my thoughts and form a vision of how things might develop from here. So, firstly, what happened? Donald Trump ran into serious trouble fulfi...

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