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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A New Era?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jul 2025

The events of July 18, 2025 mark an important milestone in U.S.–Venezuela relations. Maximum pressure has given way to pragmatic understanding. The events of that day demonstrate that communication channels between the two governments are working, such that a complex and delicate negotiation ...

A private oil license follows the prisoner exchange
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Only four days after the prisoner exchange took place, rumors about a new (probably private) license for Chevron, fueled by the news that Javier La Rosa, head of Base Assets & Emerging Countries at Chevron, had spent a few hours in Venezuela, spread rapidly.

We revise down exchange rate and inflation forecasts
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2025

We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for two main reasons: the reduction in cash transfers under the Patria system following the elimination of some benefits starting in June 2025, and our assumption that the government will seek to contain inflationary pressures by keeping mo...

Maduro calls for peace—with one eye on opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2025

It is too soon to predict the impact of the Iran–Israel ceasefire announced by President Trump on June 23. In any case, developments in the conflict point to a geopolitical realignment the effects of which will reach far beyond the Middle East. Even if Iran chooses to escalate, it will do so from...

Pressure on prices and the Bolívar
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jun 2025

We have revised down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts on the assumption that, starting in June 2025, the government will maintain a monthly increase of 9–11 percent in the official exchange rate in an effort to ease inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, the 2025–2026 outlook remains one ...

Silent concessions
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2025

The exchange of concessions between the U.S. and Venezuelan governments signals a pragmatic understanding that prioritizes immediate mutual interests. Maduro seeks to consolidate his grip on power, while Trump (via Grenell) aims to secure gains on deportations and limit Chinese influence over Ven...

Sanctions on Venezuela become tighter and more opaque
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 May 2025

There will be no General License 41c. We infer that Chevron is now operating under private licenses, out of public view. The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) did not issue a general license clarifying the conditions for Chevron's continued presence in the country after the ex...

Imminent issuance of a new license for Chevron
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 May 2025

Imminent issuance of a new license for Chevron: Bloomberg reported a possible 60-day extension of General License 41b which is set to expire next Tuesday, May 27th. This license gave Chevron 60 days to conclude operations in the joint ventures where it is a minority partner of Pdvsa. Althou...

Risks of high inflation and recession escalate
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 May 2025

The worsening outlook for Venezuela’s export revenue is heightening the already high inflation and recession risks we have been warning about. The country is facing a severe negative shock from the convergence of sharply deteriorating global oil market conditions, tighter sanctions on Venezuel...

Keep arguing, guys
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2025

Nine months after the 2024 presidential elections, the Maduro government is consolidating its political position but faces the suspension of oil licenses and the secondary tariffs imposed by the United States on countries that purchase Venezuelan oil, already perturbing the fragile economic norma...

It’s back
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Apr 2025

We foresee a return to triple-digit annual inflation in 2025 and identify several upside risks to our forecast numbers: U.S. oil sanctions policy, the effect of secondary tariffs to be applied to countries that buy Venezuelan oil, falling oil prices, adjustment measures adopted under the Economic...

Sanctions tighten rapidly
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Apr 2025

Over the last few days, news regarding the Trump administration's sanctions on Venezuelan oil has pointed to an unprecedented tightening of the sanctions framework, which will substantially impact the country's oil revenues. The revocation of licenses and comfort letters, the March 24 Executiv...

Modus vivendi?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Mar 2025

The Trump administration’s top priority on Venezuela at the moment is to show its base that it is delivering on campaign promises regarding immigration. Its strategies are grounded in pragmatic, transactional exchanges—not in promoting democracy or economic freedoms. Florida’s Republican bas...

Mitigation or laissez-faire?
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2025

Inflation over the next two years depends on how willing the government will be to use non-reserve foreign assets to mitigate the effects of the recent negative revenue shock stemming from the revocation of General License 41a. In February 2025, the monthly inflation rate rose to 10 percent fr...

Sequels of a surprise revocation
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 12 Mar 2025

The unexpected revocation of General License 41 through General License 41a with only 30 days granted for winding down has turned what was already looking like a tough year into a decidedly awful one. The country will suffer a 24-percent drop ($4 billion) in oil exports in 2025, followed by anoth...

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