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Unanchored: Venezuela returns to hyperinflation territory
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2025

Inflation rebounds to 20 percent in December, driven by simultaneous acceleration in the official and parallel exchange rates. Although fiscal stimulus typically eases at year-end, limited forex supply—amid weak oil prices and high external geopolitical volatility—reduces the central bank’s room ...

Economic blockade instead of invasion?
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Dec 2025

The seizure of the sanctioned tanker Skipper heralds the possibility of a military-backed economic blockade aimed at achieving regime change in Venezuela through economic suffocation rather than military intervention. According to various sources, the Skipper was carrying 1.1 million barrels o...

Turning point or tightening?
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 11 Dec 2025

Venezuela is entering a new cycle of high macroeconomic uncertainty, caught between increasingly tight sanctions and narrowing room for policy maneuver. This report projects economic performance for 2025–2027 under the assumption that the current sanctions regime will remain in place, while recog...

Venezuela: Between Pressure and Dialogue
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Dec 2025

So far, the Trump administration has built a propaganda—or psyops—apparatus that raises pressure on Caracas without risking open military action. It follows the logic of Latin American soap operas: each episode ends on a cliffhanger. The question remains: what does it hope to achieve? The narr...

USDT, OFAC and inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response

We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for 2025 and present two scenarios for 2026, depending on whether or not U.S. OFAC sanctions on Venezuela are tightened. For November–December 2025, we assume that USDT supply expansion will continue, market acceptance of such will gradu...

Who knows? Gauging the risk of U.S. intervention in Venezuela
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Nov 2025

In the United States, different political camps seem to be converging on one key point: that Maduro’s ouster is part of the broader fight against drug trafficking and could justify military intervention. Although the U.S. troop buildup in the Caribbean has not disrupted cohesion within the Ven...

Game changer?
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Oct 2025

María Corina Machado will receive the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize in December. Although her nomination was known since last year and her track record fits the appropriate profile, the news was a general surprise, triggering three interconnected dynamics: Machado's challenge to maximize the impact ...

Inflation forecast revised up
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Oct 2025

We revise up our projections for 2025–2026, reflecting the renewed spiral of inflation and devaluation. The gap between export revenue—limited and with a bearish bias—and a still-strong demand for foreign exchange further weakens the BCV’s ability to defend the bolivar. Since mid-September, the c...

External shock, internal fragility
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 03 Oct 2025

Venezuela’s economy is moving into dangerous territory: falling oil prices and a tougher U.S. foreign policy are fueling uncertainty and eroding the government’s ability to stabilize just as the depreciation–inflation spiral is gathering force. Chevron’s return to Venezuela (under the conditio...

The game goes on
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Sep 2025

Tensions between the Trump administration and the Venezuelan government remain in fragile equilibrium, with each side trying to force the other to break it. The U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean persists, but the pressure is now focused on narratives, demoralizing and isolating Maduro, an...

Inflation resurges
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Sep 2025

Venezuela has entered a new cycle of accelerating inflation. We revise up our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for the period from September 2025 through December 2026. The bolivar’s defense capacity is weakening on low international oil prices, limitations imposed by oil licenses, and a ...

Not more of the same
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Sep 2025 · 1 response

Trump is reshaping pressure on Venezuela under an anti-drug narrative, designating the "Cartel of the Suns" a terrorist organization and deploying naval forces to the Caribbean. The pressure on Maduro is evident, though the U.S. government is not speaking of regime change. The military deployment...

The new Chevron authorization has no impact on inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Aug 2025

We revise our inflation forecasts upward from our July report due to the acceleration in the pace of official exchange rate depreciation starting in August, which we interpret as a new exchange rate policy stance by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV). Although Chevron was authorized by the U....

A New Era?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jul 2025

The events of July 18, 2025 mark an important milestone in U.S.–Venezuela relations. Maximum pressure has given way to pragmatic understanding. The events of that day demonstrate that communication channels between the two governments are working, such that a complex and delicate negotiation ...

A private oil license follows the prisoner exchange
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Only four days after the prisoner exchange took place, rumors about a new (probably private) license for Chevron, fueled by the news that Javier La Rosa, head of Base Assets & Emerging Countries at Chevron, had spent a few hours in Venezuela, spread rapidly.

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