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The Most Serene Committee
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2026

The minutes of the last Copom meeting brought relatively few novelties compared to the Statement released last week, but, taken as a whole, they reinforce our conviction that the most likely scenario for monetary policy involves the beginning of the monetary easing cycle with a 0.50 p.p. cut at t...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Feb 2026

RISKS: WITHOUT A COMPASS, AT THE MERCY OF WINDS AND MOODS The construction of a solid institutional framework has been one of the pillars of civilization. Faced with the inevitability of uncertainty, human beings built rules to reduce it, restricting the possible choices in each situation. If ...

Here comes the sun
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2026

There was no surprise regarding Copom’s decision to maintain the target for the benchmark Selic rate at 15.00% per year. It was also expected that the post-meeting communication would unlock the door that had kept an interest rate cut remote, by removing from the statement the expression: “To en...

Every journey begins with a first step
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2026

Brazil’s growth has been supported by higher resource utilization, while the contribution from productivity remains limited. Among the various constraints on productivity in the country, low trade opening plays a prominent role. In this context, the agreement between Mercosur and the European Uni...

We’re gonna need a bigger boat…
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2026

There is considerable debate regarding Brazil’s growth potential. Despite a visible acceleration of the Brazilian economy in the post-pandemic period, when GDP grew around 3% per year, we have argued that a considerable portion of this performance is due to the utilization of previously idle reso...

The deficit and the debt
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2026

The Minister of Finance, seeking to defend his legacy (an arduous task, I acknowledge), stated in an interview that “public debt is increasing because of high interest rates, not because of the deficit”. This is not true, as we will show in this Report. The primary deficits recorded in 2023, 2024...

Not so fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jan 2026

The disinflationary process observed in 2025 was largely driven by the strong appreciation of the real and favorable food price dynamics. Going forward, the Central Bank will have to bring inflation back to target through the ongoing slowdown in activity and through a weakening of the labor marke...

In the final stretch
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Dec 2025

The tone of the Copom Minutes, released yesterday, was somewhat more upbeat in its assessment of the prospective inflation scenario than that conveyed in the Statement following the meeting, but, even so, without elements that would allow us to affirm, as we had come to believe, that the beginnin...

What lies ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Dec 2025

The slowdown of the economy in 2025, reflected in growth around 2.3% for this year versus 3.4% last year, should continue in 2026. In our central scenario, output expansion next year should be around 1.8%, still reflecting the effect of higher interest rates on domestic demand. Indeed, the combi...

Copy & paste
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2025

BCB’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) kept, as widely expected, the target for the benchmark Selic rate at 15% per year, but the policy rate was not the only element that remained unchanged after the meeting. The statement released immediately after the decision—which anticipates some of the...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025

LULA 4: A SAMPLE OF THE COMING TIDAL WAVE What was expected to be a calm year-end came to an abrupt halt on Friday, December 5, with a clear sample of the uncertainty and risk that will accompany us into 2026. Equities were 4.31% down, reversing the previous mood of euphoria — or “overbought” ...

Easy does it
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2025

Brazil’s GDP grew 0.1% in the third quarter, slightly below median forecasts (0.2%). While household consumption also increased 0.1%, both government consumption (1.3%) and investment (0.9%) performed better, resulting in a 0.4% increase in domestic demand—which accelerated compared to the second...

Bad moon rising
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Dec 2025

Brazil’s fiscal situation is fragile and requires deep adjustments. Although the government should meet its target in 2025, not only has the target itself lost its meaning, but—yet more importantly—the result remains far from satisfactory, with a growing primary deficit feeding the rapid expansio...

Under pressure
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Nov 2025

The unemployment rate has remained at its historical low in recent months, suggesting that the labor market is still quite tight. However, cooling signs have begun to emerge. When adjusting for movements in the participation rate, an increase in unemployment at the margin becomes apparent. We exp...

Losing steam
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Nov 2025

Economic activity lost strength starting in the second quarter and now shows signs cooling aggregate demand. Retail sales indicate that the payment of court-ordered debts (precatórios) was not enough to sustain a favorable outcome for consumption. Even segments more sensitive to income have shown...

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