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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jun 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Central America databank May 28
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jun 5
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Dominican Republic databank May 21
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Ecuador databank May 23
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Gulf Countries databank Jun 13
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Hungary databank May 20
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India databank Jun 2
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 12
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Philippines databank Jun 6
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jun 16
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South Africa databank Jun 9
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jun 4
NEWS FLASH
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COUNTRY INSIGHTS
May CPI data out, MNB's tight policy course vindicated
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jun 2025
The headline rate of CPI-inflation surprised on the upside in May. Against 4.2% yoy expected by analysts (their median forecast), the actual number was 4.4% yoy, with 0.2% inflation in May alone. The yoy rate rose from 4.2% yoy in April. Non-fuel inflation backed up to 5.2% yoy from the previous ...
May inflation data due tomorrow, and some fiscal data reported
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2025
For headline CPI-inflation, analysts in Portfolio.hu's monthly poll expect 4.2% yoy, unchanged from April, as regards the median forecast recorded by the survey. For end-2025, the headline rate is expected to decrease to 3.9% yoy. We fully agree with this forecast for May, and also with the expec...
Fitch affirmed their BBB/Stable sovereign debt rating on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2025
Just one week after the latest review by a Top-3 rating agency, Fitch Ratings affirmed their BBB/Stable mark on Hungary on June 6. The report was quite negative in the sense that it identified three key areas where the agency saw deterioration since their previous review: growth outlook, short-te...
Relatively good industry and retail sales data for April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jun 2025
At last, we see a month in which both industrial output and retail sales grew materially, in month-on-month volume terms, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. As for industry, output was up 1.5% mom. Year on year, this still meant a decrease of 2.6%, but even that was way better than the -6% yoy...
Moody's affirmed their Baa2/Negative sovereign rating to Hungary on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jun 2025
This means that the government has escaped a downgrading from a key rating agency for now. But the negative outlook was maintained, and Moody's will review their rating again no later than November 28. The next review by a top-3 agency is due in a week's time, by Fitch Ratings, currently rating H...
No policy change at today's Monetary Council, as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 May 2025
The base rate remains at 6.5%, and the interest rate corridor has also been left at 5.5-7.5%. The Council expect headline CPI-inflation close to (meaning not a lot above) the target range. They continue to aim at maintaining the stability of financial markets (in our reading this primarily means ...
Good news, bad news: a brief update to last week's monthly report
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 May 2025
Our latest monthly report was released on May 20. Here follows a list of the most important items, which have shown up since then. 1. In the report, we wrote of the decelerating trend of nominal wage growth, which is good news for inflation but bad news for growth. We referred to the fact that by...
Improving price stability but no good prospects for GDP
HUNGARY · Report · 20 May 2025
Energy prices remain favorable for importers such as Hungary, especially regarding crude oil. We still consider the occasionally repeated US threat of retaliatory tariffs on those who buy Russian energy as unlikely to materialize. However, an alternative plan by the EU to end all purchases of Rus...
Disappointing CPI data for April: cap on retail margins did not work quite as suggested previously
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 May 2025
The headline rate was 0.2% mom, 4.2% yoy, the latter down from 4.7% yoy in March, core inflation was 0.1% mom, 5% yoy, also down from 5.7% yoy in the previous month: So, it looks like the spike seen in the first two months of this year has been overcome, both headline and core fell neatly, and th...
April CPI out tomorrow: prepare for the headline rate deeply below 4%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 May 2025 · 1 response
The headline rate went up to 5.6% yoy in February, from where it came down to 4.7% yoy in March. Against that, a further drop to below 4% in April may look extraordinary. But circumstances are extraordinary, too. For one thing, fuel prices (7.3% of the CPI basket) dropped substantially again in A...
US, EU trade policy measures work against economic growth in Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 May 2025
Well, this looks like a series of unfavourable news now. Here is a list of what we mean: 1. A few days ago, Mr. Trump's 25% tariffs on the imports of car components took effect, following a similar measure on the imports of complete cars, implemented one month earlier. Naturally, these moves affe...
Administrative price regulation will most likely be extended and broadened after end-May
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 May 2025
Economy Minister Nagy has made a considerable number of public appearances on the existing administrative price regulation applied to the retail prices of certain food items recently. The summary of his statements must be as follows, we think: - The limitation of the retail price margins used at ...
Negative GDP growth reported for Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025
Preliminary, seasonally and day-adjusted GDP data shows -0.2% qoq, -0.4% yoy real growth for Q1, as reported this morning. This came after +0.6% qoq, +0.1% yoy in Q4, and 0.5% growth in full-year 2024. In an unusually brief statement, KSH only said that Q1 growth was supported by services but hel...
Fiscal cost of election campaign spending increases
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Apr 2025
The other day, Economy Minister Nagy confirmed that the members of armed services (soldiers, policemen, etc., about 100k people) will be entitled to another one-time bonus payment, equal to 6-month worth of salaries, in February next year, and that the government are going to earmark some HUF450b...
Non-interest central government cash deficit down in Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Apr 2025
Two days ago, when we released our new quarterly forecast report, we were still unable to give any breakdown of the Q1 cash balance of the central government, because the respective official data had not been published yet. So we could not present how exactly the annualised cash deficit ratio ros...