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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Administrative fuel price caps look unsustainable
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Mar 2026

The following is supposed to be an important contribution ahead of next Tuesday's (March 24) Monetary Council meeting, which is scheduled to discuss the Q1 inflation report as well.Effective March 10, the government introduced 'protected retail prices' for the most basic types of fuels, which are...

Jumping into the dark
HUNGARY · Report · 17 Mar 2026

Less than four weeks before the election, there is no sign of any significant change in the previously known odds. On one hand, Tisza maintains a significant and even moderately increasing lead in the polls. But on the other, these surveys do not include the views of those who vote from abroad, a...

MNB is ready to intervene for the forint, offering the sale of FX to energy importers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2026

The Monetary Council decided this afternoon to offer the sale of foreign currencies to energy importers, for the MNB to secure the availability of FX liquidity at the current increased level of import prices. As Vice Governor Kurali commented, they want to eliminate the risk that the market could...

Stepping into the same river again: retail fuel prices to be administratively capped from midnight
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

It has just been announced that the government cabinet has decided to set an administrative cap on retail fuel prices, effective midnight today. These will be HUF595 per litre for gasoline and HUF615 per litre for diesel, in both cases for the leading products on the market. These prices will hav...

Political risk of domestic origin is increasing
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2026

What is just happening is nothing else than what we have been predicting for quite a while. You may call it uncertainty around the election, instability or simply political risk, and it exists to a great extent separately from the many problems and threats stemming from today's troublesome extern...

Reporting from under the bus: first estimate of the extra energy cost
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2026

A few weeks ago, PM Orbán was sincerely hoping that President Trump would spend the first day of March by hopping on AF1 and flying to Budapest, to promote the case of his true friend and loyal ally in the latter's fight for reelection. However, he was thrown under the bus instead, receiving shar...

An update on the election campaign and opinion polls
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Feb 2026

On February 24, Median, one of the more reliable pollsters domestically, published a new survey, in which Tisza's lead against Fidesz rose to 42:31 from January's 40:33, both as percent of the total voting population: Note: 'Egyéb párt' = other parties, 'Pártnélküli' = undecided; Source: 444.hu T...

The MNB base rate has been cut by 25 bps to 6.25% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

For the first time since September 2024, the MNB base rate was reduced by 25 bps at today's monthly rate-setting meeting. The interest rate corridor around the base rate was kept at +/-1%-point. The decision corresponded to broad expectation, as regards analyst views and market pricing. There app...

A strange story about friendship and the fog of war
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026

For this story, friendship represents the Druzhba oil pipeline, through which Hungary brings in most of its 4.9m metric tons (2025, estimated) of crude oil imports, from Russia of course, but through the territory of Ukraine. Druzhba literally means 'friendship', although no one can be sure exact...

All eyes are on the election now
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2026

European gas prices normalized once the roughly three-week period of extraordinary cold weather in January ended. The EU eventually approved its planned diversification away from Russian gas imports, but that did not have any significant market impact, suggesting the availability of sufficient su...

Excellent January inflation data (with some footnotes), analysts expect a base rate cut soon
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Feb 2026

The headline rate of CPI-inflation was 0.3% mom, 2.1% yoy in January, the latter sharply down from December's 3.3% yoy. Core inflation also fell, to 2.7% yoy from the previous month's 3.8% yoy, and non-fuel inflation dropped to 3.4% yoy, from 4.5% yoy in December. This sharp drop was no surprise ...

Politico.eu seen in Hungarian politics once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

This morning, Politico.eu, which excels as an efficient miner of inside information in Brussels, wrote on a currently considered five-point plan to bring Ukraine into the EU by 2027, referring to their conversations with ten officials and diplomats within the EU. This plan would greatly affect Hu...

Tisza published its policy platform document yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2026

Roughly two months ahead of the election, Tisza published its policy platform on February 7, a 240-page document under the title: 'Foundations of a functioning and humane Hungary'. According to speakers from Tisza, this was prepared by more than 1000 experts over the past one and a half years. Us...

EU finally prohibited gas imports from Russia, Hungary sues at the European Court
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2026

The EU regulation to prohibit the imports of natural gas from Russia was finally published in the EU's official gazette on January 26, after being approved by the European Parliament in early December and by the EU Council at a later date. This regulation does not prohibit the imports of Russian ...

A few snippets on most recent developments
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jan 2026

By and large, the MNB's January rate-setting meeting on Tuesday proved to be a non-event, as expected. But, please, remain being warned that a base rate cut, most likely by 25bps, may come in late March, provided the usual early-year wave of price adjustments is found to have been completed with ...

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