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What to expect for the Year of the Horse
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Jan 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - China’s economy ended 2025 much as it began—with an overreliance on a growing trade surplus and non-productive investment to drive growth. A sharp decline in the latter over the year saw quarterly GDP growth decline steadily from a very strong 5.4...

Will global trade fracture?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 16 Dec 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Once again, China’s data releases this month have been disappointing. Even as the market expected very weak growth in November’s retail sales of just 2.9%, in fact they came in much lower, at 1.3%. Industrial output growth also disappointed, comin...

Webinar replay - China's five-year plan and its shifting economic landscape
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Nov 2025

What challenges will China face in the execution of its five-year plan? Can China maintain its position in the global trade conflict? As Beijing clamps down on the manufacturing industry, what support will the government provide to different sectors? Visit our calendar page to watch the rep...

What does GDP growth (and investment growth) mean in China?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Nov 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Little good news came out of October’s data release. Growth in value-added industrial production was down. Retail sales growth was also down, and remained lower than growth in industrial production for both October and 2025 year to date. - Wha...

China’s rare-earth strategy may be a high-risk move
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Oct 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Beijing’s export controls on rare earths may be part of a very high-risk strategy to manage China’s position in the global trade conflict. Because deficit countries are usually in a much stronger position in a trade conflict over the medium term, ...

Is the emerging trading pattern stable?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Sep 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: The fight against involution seems to be working. Price declines moderated in August while most measures of production were below expectations. The question is whether Beijing can repress involution while still maintaining GDP growth targets, or will...

“Involution” is Beijing’s favorite word
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Aug 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Chinese policymaking circles have become obsessed with the concept of “involution”, with senior policymakers from Xi Jinping on down demanding that it stop. We should expect that an important focus of policymaking in the next few months will be on...

No adjustment in the first half of 2025
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Jul 2025

Special points to highlight in this issue: - China’s second quarter GDP surprised modestly on the upside, but headline GDP growth of 5.3% for the first half of 2025 masks continued weakness in domestic demand, falling industrial profits, rising debt, and persistent deflationary pressures....

Another month of data shows little has changed
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jun 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - China’s growth model remains structurally unbalanced, as the government continues to prioritize aggressive GDP targets without implementing the consumption-focused reforms needed for sustainable development. There was, however, some good news in M...

Consumer loans are going bad
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 May 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - The latest data releases again reinforce the story we’ve been telling all year and much of last year: Beijing may talk a lot about the urgent need to boost domestic demand, and it may make weekly or even daily announcements about how it proposes t...

Webinar Replay - China’s Outlook in the Time of Trade Wars 
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 02 May 2025

With an escalating trade war between China and the US, how will China navigate the situation and what will the implications be for its economy and global trade? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Michael Pettis discussing China's economic outlook in the time of...

More mixed data in March
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Apr 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - The property sector in top-tier cities may be close to bottoming out, although this is still far from the case in the rest of China. - Growth in March came in much stronger than expected, and drove first-quarter growth also above expectations,...

Not much came out of the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Mar 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: • So far, I expect economic activity in 2025 to look a lot like economic activity in 2024. In 2025 we can expect a reduction in the astonishingly high contribution of net exports to GDP growth in 2024, balanced by an increase in the disappointingly l...

What does Xi’s meeting with entrepreneurs signal for the private sector?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Feb 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Economic data releases in China tend to be skimpy in the first two months of every year, mainly because the floating Spring Festival date (from late January to mid-February) distorts economic activity and makes year-on-year and month-on-month comp...

China reported 5 percent GDP growth in 2024
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Jan 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - The year 2024 ended pretty much as we had all more or less expected: GDP grew by 5 percent on the dot (almost literally on the dot), driven by surging exports and expanding production, and dragged down by very weak domestic demand. This means that...

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