GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Milei government has tried to break inflationary inertia by simultaneously controlling the nominal exchange rate and the money supply. To do so, it has relied on three heterodox tools: the cepo (exchange controls), the provision of exchange-rate hedges, and the sterilization of reserve purcha...

The limits of disinflation and the challenge of growth with one year to the 2027 presidential election

ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Oct 2026

With one year remaining until the presidential election on October 24, 2027, and roughly ten months until the mandatory primary elections (PASO) that will define party candidates, the window to reverse the modest results of the economic program—in terms of activity and inflation—is narrow. The go...

Four challenges ahead of the 2027 elections

ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Sep 2026

With 13 months to go before the next presidential election, in which the ruling party will seek reelection, and 11 months before the mandatory primary elections (PASO), President Javier Milei’s government faces four major challenges. The first is to meet its dollar financing needs without losing ...

Imbalanced growth and the debate about monetary policy

ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Sep 2026 · 1 response

Argentina has two problems at present: a growth problem and a money problem. Thirty two months into the Milei administration, real GDP growth has been unimpressive and imbalanced. There is scarce creation of quality employment, and real wages in formal economic activities are falling, as are per-...

Argentina's recovery-drivers, risks and timing - Slide presentation and webinar replay

ARGENTINA · Presentation · 17 Aug 2026

How will Argentina navigate the tradeoff between disinflation and economic growth in the second half of 2026? Can steady or rising dollar demand destabilize the peso ahead of the presidential election? Can MECON's financing program ameliorate investor concerns about reserve accumulation and credi...

Upcoming Webinar - Argentina's recovery-drivers, risks and timing

ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Aug 2026

Date: 14 Aug 2026 | Time: 10:00 AM EDT How will Argentina navigate the tradeoff between disinflation and economic growth in the second half of 2026? Can a steady or rising dollar demand destabilize the peso ahead of the presidential election? Can MECON's financing program ameliorate investor c...

Argentina's elusive quest for remonetization

ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Jul 2026

The Achilles’ heel of the Argentine economy is the lack of remonetization in pesos. Episodes of solid growth with low inflation over the past 50 years occurred in the 1990s (especially 1991–1997) and the 2000s (especially 2003–2007). In both periods, growth with disinflation rested on a strong ri...

Explaining the Differences Between MECON’s Financing Program, Released Yesterday, and My Own Estimates Published Last Week

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Jul 2026

As expected, the government yesterday released its financing program for 2026 and 2027 in response to strong market demand. While the announcement has helped assuage investor concerns about the administration’s ability to service debt maturing this year and next, it leaves some important question...

Rethinking Argentina's 2026–27 external financing gap

ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Jun 2026 · 1 response

Back in January, I argued that the combined US dollar debt obligations of the National Treasury and the Central Bank (BCRA) appeared too large relative to the Milei administration's capacity to finance them through the end of the presidential term. Six months later, that situation looks considera...

Seeking stability with no takeoff in sight

ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Jun 2026

The debate surrounding Argentina's outlook increasingly revolves around a simple but consequential issue. Can the economy recover before inflation reaches truly low levels, or must inflation fall further before a meaningful recovery can occur? A weaker peso risks reigniting inflation. A stable p...

The Ides of May

ARGENTINA · Report · 18 May 2026

In Roman tradition, the Ides of March evoke foreboding and anxiety, while the Ides of other months, such as May, suggest cautious optimism. At this time in May, Argentina’s economy resembles the latter more than the former. April was a better month than March, and May’s economic results are expec...

Stable disequilibrium

ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Apr 2026

I see Argentina's macroeconomy as trapped in a state of internal and external disequilibrium. On one hand, the output gap is negative, meaning that GDP is running below potential, On the other, the central bank is having trouble accumulating reserves at a high enough speed to convince internatio...

Macro update: tail risks down, frictions up

ARGENTINA · Report · 27 Apr 2026

Argentina’s macro program continues to deliver short-term financial stability, but the underlying tensions between disinflation, growth, and external sustainability remain unresolved. Recent developments confirm that the policy mix is effective at reducing tail risks—namely, a disorderly devaluat...

Asymmetric exchange rate flexibility as a path out of stagnation

ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Mar 2026

For Argentina to break out of its current stagnation without triggering a sustained increase in inflation, it needs to adopt an asymmetrically floating exchange rate regime. Asymmetric floating implies allowing the peso to depreciate when demand for dollars rises, while intervening to accumulate ...

The Middle East conflict: a catalyst for policy recalibration in Argentina?

ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Mar 2026

The Middle East conflict represents a double-edged sword for Argentina. While it strengthens the external sector through improved terms of trade, it also exacerbates inflationary pressures and financial vulnerabilities. This combination may ultimately force a reassessment of the current policy mi...