GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

I see Argentina's macroeconomy as trapped in a state of internal and external disequilibrium. On one hand, the output gap is negative, meaning that GDP is running below potential, On the other, the central bank is having trouble accumulating reserves at a high enough speed to convince internatio...

Macro update: tail risks down, frictions up

ARGENTINA · Report · 27 Apr 2026

Argentina’s macro program continues to deliver short-term financial stability, but the underlying tensions between disinflation, growth, and external sustainability remain unresolved. Recent developments confirm that the policy mix is effective at reducing tail risks—namely, a disorderly devaluat...

Asymmetric exchange rate flexibility as a path out of stagnation

ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Mar 2026

For Argentina to break out of its current stagnation without triggering a sustained increase in inflation, it needs to adopt an asymmetrically floating exchange rate regime. Asymmetric floating implies allowing the peso to depreciate when demand for dollars rises, while intervening to accumulate ...

The Middle East conflict: a catalyst for policy recalibration in Argentina?

ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Mar 2026

The Middle East conflict represents a double-edged sword for Argentina. While it strengthens the external sector through improved terms of trade, it also exacerbates inflationary pressures and financial vulnerabilities. This combination may ultimately force a reassessment of the current policy mi...

Stagflation deepens: Can Argentina find a way out in 2026?

ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Mar 2026

According to the September–October 2025 Survey of Political Satisfaction and Public Opinion conducted by Universidad San Andrés, low wages and limited employment opportunities have become the primary concerns among respondents. Inflation now ranks lower, alongside insecurity, poverty and perceive...

Despite its long-term significance, last week’s passing of the labor reform bill by the Senate failed to impress the market

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Feb 2026

Summary On Thursday of last week, the Senate approved President Milei’s labor reform bill, officially known as Ley de Modernización Laboral, after a marathon debate with 42 votes in favor and 30 against. The approval came amid significant protests outside Congress, where unions and workers clashe...

Fear of floating

ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Jan 2026

The beginning of the new year brought few surprises. The BCRA began to make daily purchases of reserves as announced; it also canceled the tranche of the swap with the U.S. Treasury disbursed in October and placed a one-year repo with international banks, the proceeds of which were sold in part t...

The link between re-monetization and reserve accumulation—the two will only happen if the exchange rate is allowed to float

ARGENTINA · Report · 11 Dec 2025

The government now agrees that accumulating FX reserves is important but, for this, the economy must re-monetize—and not just in US dollars, as it thought before, but primarily in pesos. While this is obviously true, members of the economic team also believe (or so it seems) that re-monetization ...

The government says exchange rate policy will remain unchanged—the question is for how long

ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Nov 2025

The president and the economy minister have said that no significant changes in FX policy are in the cards. In this report, I evaluate whether, given the net demand for dollars from the SPN, the rest of the economy will have the capacity to generate the excess supply necessary to satisfy that dem...

Webinar replay: Post-election Argentina: Inflation, growth and the next policy chapter

ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Oct 2025

What do the results of Argentina's midterm elections mean for the country's outlook? Is a monetary/FX regime change in the cards? What are the implications for inflation and growth? How likely is Congress to approve structural reforms over the next two years? What will the US Treasury ask of Arge...

The "Bessent effect" is a game changer, but not for the reasons some people think

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 21 Oct 2025

Economy Minister Luis Caputo has described recent U.S. financial assistance as a “game changer” for Argentina. That characterization is accurate — though not for the reasons many government supporters claim. The U.S. aid package does not provide a shortcut to peso stabilization or pave the way fo...

U.S. support buys time, not permanent stability, for Argentina

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Oct 2025

Despite the U.S. Treasury’s recent show of support, Argentina’s markets remain uneasy. The mere announcement two weeks ago that Washington was willing to offer financial assistance did little to restore confidence. After a brief period of calm, both the exchange rate and country risk climbed agai...

Market calm returns to Argentina after President Trump and US Secretary Bessent pledge strong support

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025

Last week, Argentina’s economy faced intense pressure as the nominal exchange rate hit the ceiling of its exchange band and country risk surged to 1,450 basis points. Yet, the government, led by President Javier Milei and Economy Minister Luis "Toto" Caputo, pulled off two bold moves that swiftly...

Government defeat in Buenos Aires Province: Political and economic implications

ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Sep 2025

The ruling coalition suffered a 13-point loss in Buenos Aires Province, a stronghold of Peronism. The markets reacted sharply: equities fell up to 25%, bonds weakened, and country risk surpassed 1,000 basis points. Inflation stabilization has come at the cost of recessionary pressures, weak reser...

Questions I've been frequently asked since my last report

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025

Here are my answers to the main questions market participants have been asking me as the midterm election approaches. What do the polls say about President Milei's chance of winning the midterm election? Current polls position Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza (LLA) as the favorite for the Octobe...