Services

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic growth reportedly decelerated in June, albeit available statistics were incomplete
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025

Rosstat’s recent monthly statistical bulletin (with June data) looked unusual as the statistical agency didn’t publish basic sectors output change (its favorite monthly proxy for overall economic activity). It occurred for the first time since the agency started publishing this indicator. In 5M25...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Jul 2025

The CBR cut the key rate by 200 bps to 18% in line with market expectations. The regulator’s rhetoric was rather neutral, while many investors expected a more dovish tone. As a result, the OFZ yields contracted moderately. We think these expectations seemed unfounded, as the CBR had never sounded...

The CBR cut the key rate by 200 bps as inflation subsides
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2025

On July 25, the CBR’s Board of Directors cut the key rate by 200 bps to 18% and announced it expects the policy rate to average 18.8-19.6% this year. Therefore, the regulator hinted at another 200 bps cut, most likely in September, as August will likely be deflationary. The CBR sees inflationary ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2025

The rally on the OFZ market continued, and the yield curve approached 14% in its long end (versus 15% two or three weeks ago). The CBR published its regular survey on the current economic trends, which indicated that current inflation “in annualised terms moved close to 4%”. This statement suppor...

Russian macro: the economy is cooling as the growth model requires transformation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 11 Jul 2025

GDP statistics suggested that the nation’s seasonally adjusted GDP contracted by 0.6% Q-o-Q in 1Q25. April statistics also failed to impress. However, the economy was seemingly looking up in May. As a technical recession implies negative economic performance for two consecutive quarters, this ris...

Federal budget deficit could exceed the amended target amid disinflation and excessively strong ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Jul 2025

The recent thinking of the Russian government suggests the 2025 federal budget deficit of R3.8 trln, which is wider than the initial target of R1.2 trln. The reason behind this change is shrinking oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues as the ruble remains too strong (at about USD/RUB 79) for some time, with...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025

The FX market remains stable, as the ruble hovers close to R/$78 for some time. It looks as though the ruble demonstrated some immunity to various domestic and external factors. In our view, it may fluctuate around these levels for a bit longer. However, at some point, the excessively strong will...

The economy will likely avoid technical recession as May statistics look better
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025

A few weeks ago, Rosstat reported that in 1Q25, the nation’s seasonally adjusted GDP contracted by 0.6% Q-o-Q. This publication fueled speculation about Russia's entering a recession, especially because April statistics didn’t impress, either. As technical recession implies negative economic grow...

Economic performance set to stabilize in 2H25
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Jun 2025

Rosstat reported that in May and 5M25, Russian industrial output grew by 1.8% and 1.3% y-o-y. The mining segment contracted by 1.1% and 2.7%, while the manufacturing grew by 4.0% and 4.2% (y-o-y in May alone and 5M25 in both cases). Even though y-o-y numbers looked unimpressive compared to last y...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2025

Military escalation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher by almost 10%. As it is next to impossible to predict the duration of the “hot stage” of the conflict forecasting prices on the energy markets is uneasy. However, it is reasonable to assume that oil prices won’t fall below $60 pe...

Inflation deceleration is on track, budget revenues to be trimmed
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2025

Rosstat reported that in May, inflation was almost the same as in April, reaching 0.43% m-o-m. The number was a bit higher than we expected a few weeks ago based on weekly inflation prints. Some of the difference between cumulative inflation based on weekly flash estimates and the official monthl...

Russian macro: abrupt economic deceleration prompts CBR’s decisive action
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025

In mid-May, Rosstat published its preliminary estimate of 1Q25 GDP growth of 1.4% y-o-y. In the aftermath of last year’s 4.3%, growth the 1Q25 number was not only unimpressive but also largely unexpected as public spending once again massively increased at the very end of December 2024, implying ...

Economic growth looks better in April, albeit marginally, prompting more action from the CBR
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2025

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (flash estimate of economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew y-o-y by 2.0% in April and 1.6% in 4M25. Earlier, we quoted Rosstat while mentioning some improvements in the industry last month...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Jun 2025

The FX market remains strong despite some signs of unfavorable (for Russia) changes in geopolitical rhetoric. Apart from that, the FX market does not pay too much attention to the volatility of the oil market. The globally weakening dollar is another factor that keeps the ruble excessively strong...

The CBR getting ready to reconsider interest rate policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2025

Recent statistics from the CBR showed that as of May 1, household credit contracted by 0.5% YTD and increased by a mere 4.1% y-o-y, i.e., well below inflation (10.23%). From November 2024 to February 2025, household credit contracted in m-o-m terms every month. In March and April, it resumed grow...

Copyright 2025 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.