GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A new round of escalation in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, Urals went above $105 per barrel, the first time since May. The latter had helped the USD/RUB to stabilize within the USD/RUB84-85 range. Given the high level of oil price, we expect the overall amount of purchasing of currency by...

Federal budget deficit narrows in August despite weak oil-and-gas revenue flow.

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Sep 2026

Minfin reported that oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues reached R6.0 trln in 8M26, down 16.7% y-o-y, while non-O&G revenues rose 18.1% y-o-y to R20.9 trln. The 2026 targets are R8.9 trln for O&G and R31.4 trln for non-O&G revenues. By August, O&G revenue collection had reached only 56.2% of the annual pl...

Economic growth remains sluggish in July

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2026

Recent economic data came as no surprise. After Rosstat reported a 0.6% y-o-y GDP increase in 1H26, it noted that in July the combined output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew by 0.8% y-o-y, bringing growth for 7M26 to just 0.1% y-o-y....

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2026

The USD/RUB continued to slide in recent weeks, having surpassed the 87 mark and moving closer to 88. Generally the FX market entered a period of correction that followed months of an unhealthy appreciation of the currency amid increased oil prices and their high volatility The recent ruble depre...

Industrial production remains almost flat y-o-y

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2026

Recent industrial production statistics suggest the industry as a whole hasn’t grown much this year. Earlier, we noted that Rosstat surprisingly used two different base years for the same time series, which caused a big mismatch between y-o-y and m-o-m data. In its latest release, Rosstat revised...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2026

The FX market’s reaction to the 14% surge in oil prices over the past two weeks, driven by renewed tensions between Iran and the US, was far from straightforward. The ruble fell about 5% during this time, likely due to increased capital outflows, including the non-repatriation of export earnings ...

Economic performance looked better in recent months

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2026

Recent economic and financial data indicate the Russian economy has been improving in recent months, though it’s still too early to celebrate. Rosstat’s preliminary estimate shows GDP grew by 1.3% y-o-y in 2Q26. Since GDP fell by 0.2% year-on-year in 1Q26, this means that in the first half of 202...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Aug 2026

The ruble has slipped over 3% in the past two weeks - a move that might seem healthy from a macroeconomic standpoint but feels less so on the ground. Several factors could explain this. Export revenues for Russian companies have probably dropped amid volatile oil prices and lower volumes of refin...

Russian macro: “Reality is not what it seems”

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jul 2026

Rosstat recently released its usual monthly statistics for June and 1H26, with industrial data published last week. Around the same time, the CBR shared financial statistics as of July 1, including corporate and household credit figures. On Friday, July 26, the CBR cut the key rate by 25 bps to 1...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jul 2026

Minfin has decided to delay all primary OFZ placements until “market conditions improve.” The situation might change in the second half of September, when the government is expected to present the 2027–29 budget draft, potentially easing concerns over the deficit and its inflationary impact in th...

Federal budget revenue collection improved in June but not enough

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2026

The Ministry of Finance released preliminary federal budget execution data for 1H26, showing non-oil-and-gas revenues jumping m-o-m by about one-third, largely due to some taxes being paid quarterly. Still, such a sharp m-o-m rise seemed unusual, as it’s often much more moderate. While this could...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2026

The FX market stayed volatile, with intraday swings of three to four rubles. Despite ongoing sell-offs in the securities market, the ruble gained slightly thanks to strong export earnings inflows. Adding to that, the CBR nearly halted its “mirroring” operations, i.e., buying hard currency, given ...

Russian macro: economic dichotomy hampers growth

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 06 Jul 2026

In our previous reports, we mentioned that some officially announced data appeared odd amid slowing economic growth. While there’s no doubt about the general trends — the overall economy seems unhealthy, even if some sectors are doing relatively well — the constant revision of inconsistent statis...

Economic performance is mixed across sectors, with trends still hard to pin down

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2026

Rosstat’s latest 1Q26 GDP data by end-use confirmed a 0.2% y-o-y drop, and in seasonally adjusted terms, output shrank by 0.7% Q-o-Q. National accounts are currently based on 2021 prices, and interestingly, seasonally adjusted figures show GDP as flat y-o-y, even slightly higher. Household consum...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2026

In recent weeks, the ruble shifted from the USD/RUB 70-72 range seen at the end of May and earlier this month to USD/RUB 74-76. This healthy correction came amid expectations and the actual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices fell, with Brent dropping from $95/bbl at the st...