GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Rosstat recently released its usual monthly statistics for June and 1H26, with industrial data published last week. Around the same time, the CBR shared financial statistics as of July 1, including corporate and household credit figures. On Friday, July 26, the CBR cut the key rate by 25 bps to 1...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jul 2026

Minfin has decided to delay all primary OFZ placements until “market conditions improve.” The situation might change in the second half of September, when the government is expected to present the 2027–29 budget draft, potentially easing concerns over the deficit and its inflationary impact in th...

Federal budget revenue collection improved in June but not enough

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2026

The Ministry of Finance released preliminary federal budget execution data for 1H26, showing non-oil-and-gas revenues jumping m-o-m by about one-third, largely due to some taxes being paid quarterly. Still, such a sharp m-o-m rise seemed unusual, as it’s often much more moderate. While this could...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2026

The FX market stayed volatile, with intraday swings of three to four rubles. Despite ongoing sell-offs in the securities market, the ruble gained slightly thanks to strong export earnings inflows. Adding to that, the CBR nearly halted its “mirroring” operations, i.e., buying hard currency, given ...

Russian macro: economic dichotomy hampers growth

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 06 Jul 2026

In our previous reports, we mentioned that some officially announced data appeared odd amid slowing economic growth. While there’s no doubt about the general trends — the overall economy seems unhealthy, even if some sectors are doing relatively well — the constant revision of inconsistent statis...

Economic performance is mixed across sectors, with trends still hard to pin down

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2026

Rosstat’s latest 1Q26 GDP data by end-use confirmed a 0.2% y-o-y drop, and in seasonally adjusted terms, output shrank by 0.7% Q-o-Q. National accounts are currently based on 2021 prices, and interestingly, seasonally adjusted figures show GDP as flat y-o-y, even slightly higher. Household consum...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2026

In recent weeks, the ruble shifted from the USD/RUB 70-72 range seen at the end of May and earlier this month to USD/RUB 74-76. This healthy correction came amid expectations and the actual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices fell, with Brent dropping from $95/bbl at the st...

CBR cuts the key rate by 25 bps, sees risks of rising inflation

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jun 2026

The Central Bank of Russia cut the base rate by 25 bps to 14.25%, noting that while disinflation continues, it’s been uneven, with the latest weekly inflation reading above May’s weekly average. As of June 16, MTD inflation reached 0.38%, pushing YTD inflation to 3.68%. In May and April, monthly ...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jun 2026

The FX market saw sharp swings in early June, with the exchange rate dropping nearly 5% after the Finance Ministry announced it was boosting hard currency purchases under the fiscal rule from R110 bln in May to R208 bln in June. The ruble’s slide didn’t last long though, as it regained most of it...

Economic trends look unimpressive but the trajectory is unclear

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2026

We recently noted that official industrial statistics have been hard to use since the start of this year, as the time series for industry and its segments seems to mix two different base years. Starting in 2026, Rosstat began using 2023 fixed prices, while until 2025 it used 2018 fixed prices and...

Russian macro: The 4M26 industrial statistics suggests economic growth remains subdued

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2026

Rosstat announced that in 4M26, industrial output rose 0.7% y-o-y, up from 0.3% in the first quarter, with April alone posting a 1.9% y-o-y increase. Seasonally adjusted figures showed a 0.3% m-o-m gain in April. Mining was up 0.5% y-o-y in 4M26, while manufacturing grew by 3.2%. Monthly producti...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 May 2026

Recent windfalls from oil exports have kept the USD/RUB near the 70 mark over the past two weeks. The market expects the ruble-denominated equivalent of FX purchases for the National Wealth Fund to rise in June to R250-300 bln from R110 bln in May, which could weaken the ruble by 2-3%. In the lon...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 May 2026

About a week ago, the Ministry of Finance announced that from May 8 to June 4 it would allocate R110 billion from oil-and-gas revenues to buy FX and gold on the domestic market, in line with the fiscal rule. The Government had originally planned to return to the market in July, but moved the date...

Tax collection improves in April, and upward revisions of expenditures are likely

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 May 2026

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 4M26, total federal budget revenues reached RUB11.7 trln having fallen y-o-y by 4.5%. The collected amount accounted for 29.9% of the yearly plan and was behind schedule for this period. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues increased in April, but the amount was not...

Russian macro: the economy at a crossroad

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 May 2026

In earlier reports, we pointed out that this year’s economic data look a bit puzzling, mainly because of ongoing revisions to historical figures. These updates shift short-term growth patterns, as the adjusted m-o-m numbers from last year heavily influence this year’s y-o-y results. Monthly busin...