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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Budget revenues under pressure as the ruble remains too strong
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2025

The Ministry of Finance announced that in 11M25, total federal budget revenues hit R32.9 trln, up 0.7% y-o-y. Oil and gas revenues dropped 22.4% to just R8.0 trln, while non-O&G revenues rose 11.3% to R24.9 trln. The government had initially forecast R10.9 trln in O&G revenues for the year but no...

Economic performance looked better in October, with more challenges ahead amid appreciating ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2025

Recently published statistics indicated that October saw a kind of a moderate upturn as the short-term indicator grew by 2.9% y-o-y that month. The 10M25 tally grew by 1.1% (up from 0.9% in 9M25). This kind of moderate improvement was widespread across key segments of the economy. We previously m...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2025

The key event on the fixed income market was the placement of the debut OFZs nominated in CNY. Two tranches were issued with maturity in 2029 and 2033 totaling CNY20 bln. According to Minfin, the main purpose of this exercise was the refinancing of Russia-25 Sovereign Eurobonds, which matured on ...

Russian macro: Watch the exchange rate—nothing else matters (so far)
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2025

Over a decade ago, when the oil price bounced back after the 2008 crisis and remained above $100/bbl for some time after, the Russian economy grew fast enough (4.0% in 2012, for instance). Economic growth was also fueled by rapidly expanding household credit, while an overly strong ruble caused i...

Industrial growth unexpectedly accelerates in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2025

Rosstat reported that in the aftermath of unimpressive performance in the previous months (0.7% y-o-y in 9M25) industrial production grew by 3.1% y-o-y in October and 3.0% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. In 10M25, the industry expanded by 1.0% y-o-y as a result. The numbers still don’t look i...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2025

Despite a new package of sanctions, which included restrictions on operations with the two oil majors, the impact of the FX market is limited, and in the past two weeks the ruble remained stable. Some changes are likely starting from 2026, when the CBR plans to decrease its regular daily FX sales...

GDP growth markedly slowed in 3Q25
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025

In the aftermath of 9M25 economic statistics published somewhat two weeks ago that pointed to a persistent deceleration of economic growth, Rosstat recently released its 3Q25 y-o-y GDP growth flash estimate at 0.6%. No more details, such as Q-o-Q GDP growth (seasonally adjusted or unadjusted) are...

Federal budget deficit widens
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2025

With the 2026 budget nearing final approval in the State Duma, the 10M25 federal revenue figures were underwhelming. The Ministry of Finance reported overall revenue growth of just 0.8% compared to 10M24. Oil-and-gas revenues dropped 21.4% y-o-y, while non-O&G revenues rose 11.3%. Total revenues ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025

The FX market remains steady despite the latest sanctions. Investors anticipate no significant changes in FX flows until November 21, when all operations with the two newly sanctioned Russian oil majors must be finalized. Some impact is expected toward the year's end, as increased discounts on Ru...

Domestic demand remains weak despite reports of robust real income growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2025

According to Rosstat, total real incomes and real disposable incomes in 9M25 increased y-o-y by 8.0% and 9.2%, respectively. While these figures are preliminary and may undergo slight revisions, the changes are unlikely to be significant. Retail sales, however, rose by only 2.1% in 9M25 and 1.8% ...

Industry posts increasingly unimpressive performance
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2025

Rosstat reported that industrial output grew by 0.7% y-o-y in 9M25. In 3Q25 and September alone, it increased by 0.5% and 0.3% y-o-y, respectively. However, seasonally adjusted figures show the industry contracted by 1.0% m-o-m last month. The mining sector seems to be stabilizing, though still i...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2025

Despite considerable geopolitical turbulence, the FX market remains surprisingly calm, showing only moderate ruble volatility. The money market situation, however, appears mixed. RUONIA is trading well below the key rate (16.4% vs 17%), yet banks’ net liquidity position with the CBR hovers near z...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2025

The Russian market has been under strain due to rumors about the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine. Earlier hopes for resolving the military conflict and expectations of a rapid key rate reduction were significant drivers in recent months. However, both now seem unfounded, leaving the mark...

Economic growth continues to decelerate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2025

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) showed lackluster performance with just 0.2% y-o-y growth in August and 0.8% in the first eight months of 2025. Many economic segments were sluggish during this period, thou...

Russian macro: budgetary policy to be thriftier
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025

On September 29, the government released its revised 2026-2028 macroeconomic forecast and presented to the Duma a draft federal budget for the same period. While this year’s economic performance has been weak (aligning with the CBR's previous warnings), the government anticipates 1.0% GDP growth....

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