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Webinar replay - Colombia in turmoil
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Jun 2025

What is driving the current wave of violence in Colombia? What are the likely consequences for governability, reforms and an eventual consultation on labor reform? What are the implications for the presidential race? How will the central bank act in its June meeting? Visit our calendar page to...

Terror, uncertainty, paranoia
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025 · 1 response

It is challenging to interpret the events unfolding in Colombia. There are many antecedents from a distant past that Colombians thought were behind us. Back in the early nineties, many presidential candidates were assassinated in Colombia by the dark forces of narco-trafficking and paramilitarism...

Webinar Replay - Latin America: Fiscal Pressures and Political Shifts
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Jun 2025

How are the key Latin American countries of Mexico, Argentina, Chile, and Colombia navigating their economic challenges amidst political changes? How will Mexico's growth outlook fare in the face of Trump’s trade policy uncertainties and the trend of economic slowdowns during the first year of...

A generation of progress vanishing into thin air
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Jun 2025

Congress is again analyzing President Gustavo Petro’s labor reform proposal, and the result seems very problematic: it could be even worse than the original proposal. On May 27th, the fourth committee of the Senate approved a version of labor reform, which now moves to the floor of the upper hous...

Slide Presentation: Colombia in a complex landscape
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 19 May 2025

Read a slide presentation on Colombia's outlook, including fiscal and monetary policy, the country's projected growth outlook, developments in external sectors, the impact of Trump's policies on Colombia’s exchange rate trajectory and trade balance, what's ahead for Ecopetrol, the political cli...

The IMF says “hmmmm”
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 May 2025 · 1 response

The purpose of the IMF’s flexible line of credit is to help countries with generally sound fundamentals meet balance of payments needs, and boost market confidence during periods of heightened market risk. That is, it was created as a “spare tire” or a bumper to help eligible countries navigate t...

Another minister with an impossible job
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Mar 2025 · 1 response

The first impression one gets from the latest economic activity results is that Colombia did not take advantage of an enormous opportunity offered by international markets and economic conditions. Oil and coal prices were high over the last two years, as was demand, and 2024 economic growth in th...

One more president putting himself to shame
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2025 · 5 responses

In Colombia, it is a presidential prerogative to incur in unforced errors precisely when they hurt the most. Namely, convoke a referendum or a plebiscite as a last resort to avoid losing face, and end up in the worst scenario of failing to get the referendum or plebiscite approved, losing face an...

Cabinet outrage ignores realpolitik
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Feb 2025 · 1 response

The government, as is its custom on every subject, has been quick to celebrate on social media (and everywhere possible) the great 2024 labor market results. Officials say these show that economic recovery is fully underway; that the right is peddling a false tale that the economy is ailing; and ...

Belligerence nearly tanks a critical relationship
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Jan 2025 · 2 responses

The usual friendly weekend vibe was ruined for many Colombians on Sunday, January 26th, when a dispute over Colombia’s refusal to receive a planeload of undocumented Colombians arriving from the United States broke out between U.S. President Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro – th...

The Petro administration declared two simultaneous emergencies
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 20 Jan 2025 · 1 response

A critical region located on the border with Venezuela, where Ecopetrol produces oil, and coca plantations and cocaine laboratories abound, is currently the theater of war between the guerrilla of ELN, on one side, and FARC dissidents on the other. These events have been particularly harsh recent...

One last vote under a hawkish Central Bank Board
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

A more dovish Central Bank Board is on the way, as President Petro announced that Laura Moisá and César Giraldo will become members of the Board. Ms. Moisá, an economist from Universidad Nacional de Colombia and a PhD in Economic Development from Unicamp in Brazil, is currently the Deputy Preside...

Guevara’s headaches
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Dec 2024 · 1 response

The 2024 congressional sessions didn’t end well for the government. First and foremost, Congress sank the mini-tax reform, the Ley de Financiamiento. President Gustavo Petro reacted badly to this, announcing that “the budget crisis will not be paid for by the people,” and promising to: 1) explore...

Slide presentation - Outlook for Colombia: Does all this add up?
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Dec 2024

Get insight into the outlook for Colombia's growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and the positioning so far for the 2026 presidential election. Which industries are driving growth, and can they maintain momentum into year-end? What are the prospects for monetary policy into 2025? What is the poten...

Webinar replay - Latin America in 2025: How worried should we be?
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Dec 2024

2024 was a volatile year for Latin America. Domestic political risks and fiscal risks in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia compounded a complicated external environment. How challenging will 2025 be? What risks does the second Trump US presidency present for Mexico? How will increasing uncertainty im...

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