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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China To The Rescue
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The government announced that Eximbank and the China Development Bank had agreed to extend $7.5 billion in loans.Though Minister of Finance Fausto Herrera said $4 billion would probably be disbursed in 2015, it’s likely that only $1.5 billion will be available to help finance th...

The High Opportunity Cost of Arrogance
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryPresident Correa has accustomed us to his displays of ideology bias and haughtiness. This past week the government denied entrance to a group of representatives from the German environmental parliament. The impasse ended up with Ecuador terminating the environmental cooperation w...

Between Popularity and Need
ECUADOR · Forecast · 25 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryWe’ve lowered our 2014 economic growth projections, to 3.8%-4% from 4.5%, given the post-August plunge in oil prices. We see the deficit at 5.8% of GDP, and the current account deficit remaining low, at 0.4% of GDP, driven by this year’s trade deficit shrinkage. This latter is co...

In The Search For Money
ECUADOR · Report · 29 Sep 2014

Executive SummaryThe fiscal deficit for 2014 will reach $7272 million or 7% of GDP –the highest since year 2000. The government has secured 74% of financing as of September and needs to raise $3 billion more before year end to cover total financing needs that are at $11.3 billion.In this context ...

An Urgent Search for Funds
ECUADOR · Forecast · 18 Aug 2014

Executive SummaryThe gauge in the Treasury’s coffers veered toward empty, with just $348 million in cash on average between January and May, down from $1.25 billion during the same period last year. Unsurprisingly, the government is aggressively campaigning to control liquidity. The new Monetary ...

President, Legislator, Judge - And Now Banker
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The long-awaited free trade agreement with the European Union materialized last week, after Minister of External Commerce Francisco Ribadeneira successfully concluded the last round of negotiations in Europe.Though the deal could take 18 months to come into force, it looks certa...

One Step Closer To The Markets, One Step Farther From The Left
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Jun 2014

Executive SummaryThe controversial results –to say the least --of the last sectional elections of February 2014 paired with a tough fiscal situation brought back the pragmatic Correa to the surface once more. After taking a dig to the markets for the last seven years, he brought Ecuador back to W...

Will Ecuador return to Wall Street?
ECUADOR · In Brief · 05 Jun 2014

The operation between the Central Bank and Goldman Sachs involving gold reserves raised a wave of speculative comments. Here is a summary of the operations according to information provided by the BCE general management. The BCE will deposit 465,619 troy ounces of gold in a foreign account manage...

Our Worst Fears Confirmed
ECUADOR · In Brief · 26 May 2014

This weekend President Correa announced his decision to give green light to the initiative promoted by legislators from Alianza Pais of amending the constitution to allow "indefinite re-election" for all elected public representatives. His arguments were based on what he perceives as a an "eviden...

Squelching and Environmental Referendum
ECUADOR · Report · 23 May 2014

Executive Summary This year hasn’t started off well, for either the govenrment or its citizens. The government was stung by its party’s lackluster victories in local elections, and for the first time in seven years must cope with dwindling funds. And citizens concerned about the evironmmental eff...

Democracy or Monarchy?
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Mar 2014

Executive SummaryThe president’s Alianza Pais suffered a major political setback in the February 23rd local elections, losing control of nearly all key municipalities. Rafael Correa recognized the sectarianism of some party members, and expressed disappointment over his party’s apparent lack of p...

A Bath of Humility for the official Alianza Pais
ECUADOR · In Brief · 24 Feb 2014

Last Sunday 23d, Ecuadorians went to the polls for the 10th time since 2007 to elect sectional authorities. Every time, the President and his movement emerged victorious from these elections and public consultations. However, this last time is quite different. Quito, Guayaquil, and Cuenca and 16 ...

Back to the Seventies
ECUADOR · Forecast · 19 Feb 2014

Executive Summary The economy may have grown 4.5% last year -- 0.5 pp above expectations, though more slowly than in 2012. That would follow a Q3 growth rate of 4.9% y/y, and 1.8% q/q – the highest quarterly growth rate in a year. Oil is the driver of these happy results: oil manufacturing expand...

Tweaking The Model To The Left?
ECUADOR · Report · 28 Jan 2014

Executive SummaryThe beginning of 2014 brought important changes regarding laws and regulations that will affect the productive and financial sectors. Companies will face restrictive changes in their marketing and publicity strategies and decisions as well as in their product labeling practices. ...

Will Oil Price Be The Scrooge Of The Ecuadorian Economy?
ECUADOR · Report · 26 Dec 2013

Executive SummaryThe strong fall in oil prices since October 2013 and less than optimistic estimations for the future forced government officials to come up with lower GDP growth rates for 2014 and 2015. Minister of Finance Fausto Herrera placed these rates at 4% for 2014 falling back to 3.5% in ...

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