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Implications of the war in Iran
INDIA · Report · 16 Mar 2026

Indian macroeconomics is facing a multi-faceted external shock, one that requires a large adjustment of the general equilibrium. There is broad agreement on the core vulnerabilities: net reliance on imported hydrocarbons, exposure to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) export markets, and the integrit...

Interpreting the US trade agreement
INDIA · Report · 09 Feb 2026

The interim trade framework between the United States and India, concluded in early February 2026, is an important moment in New Delhi's strategic calculus. While the agreement de-escalates a threatened trade war—reducing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from a potential 50 percent aggregate to a uni...

Indian exports to the US under high tariffs
INDIA · Report · 26 Jan 2026

In late 2025, the Indian export sector faced a severe shock: the imposition of a 50-percent tariff by the United States for goods other than drugs or electronics. While early optimism relied on the personal chemistry between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump to mitigate these measures, the ...

Legal risk in India: the Mauritius Treaty and the rule of law
INDIA · Report · 20 Jan 2026

On January 15, 2026, the Supreme Court of India delivered a verdict against Tiger Global, ruling that its Mauritius-based entities were liable for capital gains tax on the 2018 sale of Flipkart shares to Walmart. This decision marks the final end of the residence-based taxation regime that had on...

A profound change in the financing patterns of non-financial firms
INDIA · Report · 12 Jan 2026

A profound structural shift has redefined the capital structure of Indian non-financial firms, characterized by historic deleveraging. Data for FY25 indicates the debt-to-equity ratio for unlisted companies has fallen to 1.01—the lowest since liberalization in 1991—while the interest coverage rat...

The 2026 GDP revision: restoring the signal
INDIA · Report · 07 Jan 2026

Ever since the controversial methodology changes of 2015, the credibility of India's national accounts has been significantly impaired. Sophisticated observers, including ourselves, largely decoupled from official GDP statistics, relying instead on a mosaic of high-frequency proxies to gauge the ...

Increasing FDI into financial firms
INDIA · Report · 29 Dec 2025

While aggregate Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) data suggests a period of moderation—characterized by net outflows in the latter part of the year and a distinct trend in the manufacturing sector—the financial services landscape has diverged from this broader narrative. We examine the increase...

A reform blitz? Separating the signal from the noise
INDIA · Report · 04 Dec 2025

In recent months, the union government has reformed the Goods and Services Tax (GST), operationalized the long-awaited Labor Codes, set the date for the implementation of the Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Rules, and rescinded several Quality Control Orders (QCOs). This flurry of activit...

Twenty days that will shake Indian trade policy
INDIA · Report · 24 Nov 2025

The US-India economic relationship is currently navigating its most precarious phase in decades. Following the imposition of a cumulative 50% tariff regime on Indian goods in mid-2025, the bilateral engagement has moved behind closed doors, where negotiators have reportedly constructed a framewor...

Early evidence from the first wave of Trump tariffs on Indian exports
INDIA · Report · 10 Nov 2025

In this report, we analyze the initial impact of the 2025 US tariffs on Indian exports. The available trade data, running through July/August 2025, captures only the "First Wave" tariff from April. The impact of the 50% "Second Wave" tariff (effective August 27) and the $100k H1B fee (effective ...

The Indo-US relationship: navigating a tariff shock and geopolitical recalibration
INDIA · Report · 08 Sep 2025

The 50% US tariff on Indian goods represents a significant stress test for the Indo-US relationship. While the direct economic impact appears surprisingly contained due to global trade reconfiguration and supply chain inertia, the core issue is geopolitical. The conflict is a symptom of leadershi...

The problem of high tariffs on India’s exports to the U.S.
INDIA · Report · 11 Aug 2025 · 1 response

In response to a new 50% tariff on most goods exports from India to the United States, this report analyzes the short-term impact, possible motivations, and long-term consequences. The tariffs affect approximately $65 billion in Indian exports to the U.S. annually, or about 8% of India’s total ex...

India's exports in a turbulent world economy
INDIA · Report · 07 Jul 2025

In memoriam: This is the final report prepared by Radhika Pandey. The global trade system is in a state of flux. There are early indicators that India is one of the few countries that stands to gain from the turmoil. In addition to the long-standing strength of services exports, there is now t...

Webinar replay - India’s role in a reconfigured global economy
INDIA · Report · 27 Jun 2025

Can India seize upon the opportunities created by global trade reconfiguration? How will technological developments like AI impact Indian GCCs and services? How will the domestic economic policy environment impact India's outlook? Watch the replay of webinar featuring Economist Dr. Ajay Shah d...

Sailing into a stormy world
INDIA · Report · 07 Apr 2025

The India-US goods trade is not very large, and while the 26% tariff will of course hurt, the damage in and of itself is relatively modest. The really important questions lie beyond. A recession in the US and difficulties in the world economy will weigh upon Indian growth. If the trade war get...

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