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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2014

The Impact of the Tragedy on the PSB Ticket Given that Marina Silva is Eduardo Campos’ natural successor, the main consequences of the tragedy that took the life of the PSB presidential candidate are the increased probability of the election going to a second round and the threat to Aécio Neves’ ...

Banks protest the central bank's move to rewrite the past
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Aug 2014

Hungary's banking association says that the MNB's recently issued guideline on how banks should calculate the amount of refunds to household credit clients, on account of illegally charging a currency conversion spread under FX loan contracts where no actual currency conversion was involved, is i...

Credit: The Supply and Demand Signs
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Aug 2014

Credit plays an important role in economic growth. Most companies that have projects to raise productive capacity, contributing to growth, have to find some type of financing. Individuals also benefit from credit by the ability to consume in advance of earning, especially regarding durables. Vari...

Missing the Recovery Trajectory
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 11 Aug 2014

Executive Summary The South African economic performance in 2014 has been marred by damaging strikes which gave enough reasons for negative credit ratings actions. Labour unions have grown radical and militant. Splintering among unions along political fault lines suggests that South Africa has en...

Political Insights: Week of August 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2014

This will be a busy week because of the elections.The presidential candidates will be interviewed by TV Globo’s Jornal Nacional, the highest rated news show in the country.A Sensus poll on the presidential race may be released on Friday.There will also be new polls on the presidential race and gu...

​Erdogan Years, Day One: Weak mandate for strong presidency
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2014

Good morning and Welcome to “Erdogan Years” in Turkey. I’m posting my initial thoughts at 6:00 am Turkey time so that our Asian and West European readers have some analysis to work with. The agenda of the coming days will be set by today’s central committee meetings, after which I will pen a more...

Two Opposite Pictures: Asset Prices and the Real Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Aug 2014

Executive Summary In the midst of economic performance that can be characterized as stagflation, asset prices have recently been appreciating. The Ibovespa has risen more than the stock market indexes of other emerging markets, and has far outpaced the S&P-500 in recent weeks. Simultaneously, ...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2014

Ibope Reveals Stability The second Ibope poll on the presidential race since the candidacies were made official presents a scenario of stability.President Dilma Rousseff (PT) preserved her intended votes from the previous poll, while senator Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG) and former governor Eduardo Campo...

Foreign Policy Coming Home
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2014

An official statement that defending compatriots abroad will be a defining trait of Russia’s foreign policy leaves the country in an uneasy position in its relations with the neighbors where large parts of the population (or even the whole population depending on the definition) can be viewed as ...

The Limits of Financial Reform
MEXICO · Report · 06 Aug 2014

Executive Summary The congressionally mandated report from the Federal Economic Competition Commission (Cofece) on the state of competition in the financial sector lacked the teeth of the telecommunications regulator’s equivalent report earlier this year, which among its main decisions designated...

What Follows the Reform Agenda
MEXICO · Report · 06 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Now that the question of energy reform has largely been settled, most of the Pact for Mexico structural reform agenda has been signed into law with and political attention will turn for the next ten months to three main policy areas before everything becomes subsumed in the midt...

Hail To The President
TURKEY · Report · 06 Aug 2014

Executive SummaryErdogan is almost certain the win the presidential election in the first round on Sunday. We start by providing an overview of the policies to be pursued in the Erdogan Era. We are not optimistic that AKP will revert to a more pragmatic policy path in social matters or the econom...

A Bend in the Road
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 06 Aug 2014

Executive SummaryAt a time of slowing growth, rising inflation and visible signs of infrastructure constraints, an adjudged bend in the administration’s Daang Matuwid has left the President not only with reduced degrees of freedom to invigorate the economy but also dented his corruption-fighting ...

This is in reply to a question by one of our readers
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2014

I thought the question is the minds of many and my answer may shed light on two important issues: Q: what is the likelihood of an early parliamentary election? should we expect that if Erdogan does well in the presidential and he does not announce an early parliamentary, we will see lower pressur...

Energy Reform
MEXICO · Report · 05 Aug 2014

Executive Summary A series of reforms to the Mexican Constitution regarding the energy sector appeared in the December 20, 2013 issue of the Diario Oficial de la Federación, the federal government’s daily gazette, and took effect on December 21, 2013. They legally codified changes to articles 25,...

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