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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Recent statistics point to no change: steady economic growth, uneven by sectors, amid accelerating inflation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2024

Rosstat reported that in 10M24, the output of five basic sectors grew by 4.8% y-o-y. In October alone, it was up by 3.4% y-o-y – dragged on by poor numbers in agriculture and construction. The former fell by 3.8%, while the latter was up by a mere 2.2% (both numbers are y-o-y for 10M24). This yea...

Haddad may submit the spending package tomorrow, the CCJ will hold its final public hearing today, and the STF will rule on the case regarding the Internet Civil Framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2024

According to the interim government leader in the Senate, Otto Alencar (PSD-BA), Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is expected to present the spending cut package to the President of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), during the leaders' meeting on Thursday morning. Today, the Senate's Constitu...

Worry in the runup to a second Trump administration
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Nov 2024

El Salvador’s macroeconomic conditions are worsening. Economic activity has continued to be relatively stagnant, and has yet to show positive results from economic policy actions other than in some scattered indicators, such as in tourism. Foreign remittances have decelerated, while the fiscal de...

Has consumer inflation converged to the level consistent with the rate of crawl?
ARGENTINA · Report · 27 Nov 2024

This is the first of three reports in which I will discuss an equal number of topics that are central to Argentina’s near-term economic future, namely, inflation, the FX market and country risk. Specifically, I will assess how these variables are likely to behave between now and the mid-term elec...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Nov 2024

Nov 14 Energy Ministry: During the UN Climate Change conference COP29 in Baku, Kazakhstan signed a joint declaration targeting a three-fold increase in nuclear energy production by 2050. Prime Minister: The Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Mr. Bektenov met with CEO of the Russian Nuclear Corporation ...

Can Peru avoid taking sides in the U.S.-China trade war? Economy to outperform in 2024; BCRP to pause in December
PERU · Report · 26 Nov 2024

In this report, we discuss three topics. First, we analyze the impact on Peru of the developing trade war between China and the United States. Second, we discuss Peru’s better-than-expected economic growth (we have revised up our full-year 2024 real GDP growth forecast to 3.1%, but have lowered o...

Haddad said that the spending package will be submitted this week, Lira scheduled a meeting with leaders to discuss the criticism of Brazilian meat products, and the Joint Budget Committee should meet today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Nov 2024

Fernando Haddad did not confirm the date of the announcement of the spending package but assured that it will happen this week. Planning Minister Simone Tebet stated that it is highly unlikely to occur today. Yesterday, Arthur Lira commented on the criticism leveled last week against Latin Americ...

Economics: Analysis of the recent evolution of the public finances and the main implications of the 2025 Economic Package
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2024

On November 15, the Ministry of Finance presented the Economic Package for next year, which includes the General Economic Policy Criteria for 2025 (CGPE) as well as the proposed Revenue Law and the Federal Expenditure Budget. In our opinion, the most important aspect of this package is the applic...

Politics: The 2025 budget reveals the 4T’s true political priorities, but simply doesn’t address the key problems with public finances
MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2024

The overarching consideration underpinning the Sheinbaum administration’s 2025 budget proposal, which was released late Friday before last, is to ensure Morena's permanence in power through cash transfers delivered from multiple social programs. In the budget proposal, these will account for 9% o...

The political consequences of Jair Bolsonaro’s indictment and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2024

The government's spending cut package is expected to be announced this week. In the Senate, the Constitution and Justice Committee will hold its final week of public hearings to discuss the regulation of the Tax Reform. Subsequently, Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM) is expected to present his repor...

GlobalSource Partners strengthens team in Argentina
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Nov 2024 · 1 response

We are pleased to announce that Joaquin Cottani has re-joined GlobalSource Partners, once again as a lead analyst for Argentina. He will work closely with Domingo Cavallo in conducting and writing research, as well as serving our clients with meetings and conference calls. Dr. Cottani has a ri...

Giving Birth to a Mouse
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Nov 2024 · 1 response

Since 2023, the public debt, which had been on a declining trajectory, began to increase again. Projections for interest rates and primary results indicate that this trend will persist for several years. To stabilize the debt relative to GDP, a surplus of at least 2% of GDP will be necessary unde...

The BoI expresses approval of the 2025 fiscal framework
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Nov 2024

There were no surprises in the rate decision (hold) or monetary announcement. “Monetary Committee’s policy is focused on stabilizing the markets and reducing uncertainty”, the same sentence for over one year. Inflation (3.5%) remains above target and is expected to accelerate y/y in early 2025 (d...

The government may finally announce the spending package, the CCJ will hold three final public hearings this week, and the STF will submit the final report on the investigation into the attempted coup
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2024

The main event of the week is the announcement of the fiscal measures package that the government will reveal between today and tomorrow after a series of delays. The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, is presenting a draft of the fiscal measures to the government today. The Senate’s Constitut...

Consequences of a failed policy
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 25 Nov 2024

The Venezuelan authorities’ strategy of curbing inflation by pegging the official exchange rate by mid-October had opened up a gap between the official and parallel rates so wide that it forced the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) to loosen the official rate. Subsequently, inflation began accelera...

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