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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political negotiation in check and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2024

The National Congress resumes its activities in a climate of tension with the Executive Office. As this is the week before Carnival, there are unlikely to be any important votes. In the economy, the highlights are the release of the Copom minutes and the IPCA for February. This week's Talking ...

Politics: More evidence of how organized crime, politicians, business enterprises and officials interact in Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2024

In this issue we continue the analysis we began last week in these pages with Part One of our analysis of violence, elections and political control, addressing the interrelated questions of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the...

What Will the Selic Rate Be at the End of the Easing Cycle?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Feb 2024

By raising aggregate demand, and hence the neutral interest rate, expansionary fiscal policy reduces the power of monetary policy. In 2023, the central government generated a primary deficit of R$ 230 billion, but if that result is harmonized with that determined by the Central Bank, which does n...

Economics: Immediate 2023 public finance results confirm there were no major departures from trends of the previous year
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2024

The gradual but systematic deterioration of public finances continued to unfold over the course of 2023. The results came as no surprise, as the 2023 numbers had been anticipated throughout most of 2023. However, the way some components are trending is troubling: increasingly negative public bala...

Fires and pensions: When it doesn’t rain it pours
CHILE · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024 · 1 response

It is not uncommon for the Chilean summer to be fairly dry. The country’s central valley barely sees a drop of rain between the months of November and March. As the winters have got drier as well, summer wildfires have become more common. In recent days, several fires have appeared around the cou...

The forint is under moderate downward pressure today, fiscal policy, trade data and Sweden's NATO accession may be the factors behind this
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024

With EURHUF at 385-386, with an apparent slight mobility in the upwardly direction, one could legitimately say that the forint is under some moderate pressure today. For sure, this is nothing dramatic, yet the explanation may be interesting. Anyway, this state of the local currency appears to jus...

January inflation: as bad as expected
TURKEY · Report · 05 Feb 2024

Consumer prices rose by 6.7%, m/m, in January, somewhat higher than the market consensus of 6.5%-6.6%, with the 12-month rate rising slightly to 64.9%, from 64.8% a month ago. Wage hikes, particularly the increase in the minimum wage, as well as the beginning-of-the year price/tax adjustments wer...

Congress resumes activity today, the government outlines its priorities for the year, and unions may reach an agreement to end civil servants' strike
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2024

The legislative year is set to begin today at 3 p.m. in a formal session of the National Congress. According to the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, the government should detail its list of priorities for 2024 right after Carnival. The municipal elections in October will dr...

Kazakh government dismissed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024 · 1 response

On February 5 the entire cabinet was dismissed by President Tokayev. He appointed a new acting prime minister: Roman Sklyar. Sklyar previously served as deputy prime minister. He is ethnically Russian and is the first ethnic Russian to hold this post since the Soviet era. In 2019 the entire cabin...

Despite the Fed's more hawkish message, a February rate cut cannot be ruled out
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Feb 2024

1. Domestic private consumption has recovered rapidly, in part due to the lack of Israelis traveling abroad. 2. The shekel appreciated sharply last week, partly due to optimism regarding a possible ceasefire. 3. A rate cut in February is possible, depending on January’s CPI, the shekel and ...

Fiscal sustainability over growth in the Philippines?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 05 Feb 2024

We were most disappointed that Socio-Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan should explain that lower public spending in the last quarter of 2023, and in the same context, its flat growth rate for the whole year of 2023, was due to the government’s fiscal consolidation plan. The government...

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister in South Korea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024

On February 4 the visit by Andrei Rudenko to Seoul took place. Russo-South Korean relations were discussed as well as the Ukraine War. Rudenko met his South Korean opposite number. Rudenko has special responsibility for Asia-Pacific matters in the Russian Foreign Ministry. South Korea voiced its ...

February rate cut cannot be ruled out
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Feb 2024

Private consumption continues to rebound, but slows in January: December witnessed a 12% m/m jump in credit card purchases following 8% increase in November, erasing the 16% contraction in October. Real-time data from the BoI reflect a further 4% increase in January, with a slowdown in the second...

Change at the CBRT and other news
TURKEY · Report · 04 Feb 2024 · 1 response

The CBRT Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan has departed under vague circumstances, to be replaced by Deputy Governor Fatih Karahan. Her successor’s reign will not witness a change in monetary policy settings, but could arguably create an opportunity to tighten it modestly. The political lesson from this...

Putin addresses ''Everything for Victory'' conference as ware causes labor shortages
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2024

On February 3 Putin spoke at the conference, which revived a World War II slogan as its title. The Russian president said that Russia must produce everything it needs or national sovereignty will be jeopardized. He returned to his favorite themes of national defense. He warned that if Russia is n...

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