GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

When Hurricane Otis delivered a devastating blow to the state of Guerrero, the second poorest in the country, no one from any level of government or emergency services was anywhere to be found even as civil society sought to fill the void, backed by the solidarity of philanthropic foundations and...

Kazakhstan macro: A vicious circle not yet broken

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 Nov 2023

The excessively strong tenge was one of the main reasons for the widening republican budget deficit in 9M23. Another reason for the wider deficit was the amended expenditures—along with the assumption that the revenue would grow as much as the additional spending. As the latter has not yet happen...

The fiscal conflict and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2023

In the Senate, the highlight is the vote on Tax Reform. Discussions continue around the fiscal target for 2024. On Tuesday, the Joint Budget Committee votes on the preliminary report on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). Appointments to the Central Bank (BC) may be sent to the Senate. The STF may a...

German Foreign Minister visits Armenia and Azerbaijan on peace mission

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2023

On November 4 and 5 Annalena Baerbock visited the two countries. She is trying to prevent the conflict between the two Caucasian countries from breaking out anew. The European Union is trying to establish itself as a force in the region. Georgia was rejected for EU candidate membership in 2022 bu...

The CCJ should vote on Senator Braga’s report on Tax Reform tomorrow, the Joint Budget Committee should vote on Deputy Forte’s preliminary report, and the STF should resume analysis of the FGTS ADI

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2023

On Tuesday, November 7, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Senate may vote on Senator Eduardo Braga's (MDB-AM) report on the Tax Reform Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). The objective is to vote on the text on Wednesday and Thursday in the plenary. Also on Tuesday, Novembe...

A widening fiscal deficit will require additional (but manageable) bond issuance

ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Hamas. There is much fog regarding the war, Israel has encircled Gaza city, a major Hamas stronghold including underground tunnels. International pressure for a cease-fire is mounting as civil...

Kazakhstan bans fuel exports to Tajikistan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2023

On October 20 Kazakhstan made the move saying it needs fuel for itself. The bank covers liquefied petroleum gas, propane and butane. The ban is to last until 2026. A fuel price hike in Kazakhstan in January 2022 caused massive protests and riots that left over 200 dead. Therefore the government i...

US sanctions on countries accused of supplying Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023

On November 3 the US said it was sanctioning individuals and entities whom it believes are enabling Russia to prosecute its war in Ukraine. The people and entities are from the United Arab Emirates, China and Turkey. Russia is sourcing technology and equipment for its armed forces from abroad. Ru...

No one falls from grace halfway

COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Nov 2023

In Latin American national elections today, the opposition has an 80% chance of winning, according to a recent statistical analysis. After the 2015 commodities crisis, and especially after the COVID pandemic, opposition parties won almost four of every five elections in the region. We are seeing ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi non-oil growth slowed in Q3, UAE non-oil growth strong in Q2, Bahrain reconsiders relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia is the sole bidder for World Cup

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Nov 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Russian and Iranian oil production/exports rose in October. * The ground phase of the Gaza war began, and concerns grew about civilian casualties and displacement. * Qatar mediated to enable foreign nationals to leave Gaz...

Slowing growth as the South African economy labors under local and global headwinds

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 02 Nov 2023

• South Africa’s growth: The South African economy’s real GDP was 0.9% higher in H1-2023 than it was during the corresponding period in 2022. The muted GDP growth rates recorded during both the first and second quarters of 2023 indicate the South African economy is struggling under the strain...

Fear of floating vs. fear of falling

CHILE · Report · 01 Nov 2023 · 3 responses

The August IMACEC delivered a pretty big surprise -- and not a good one. Beyond the monthly volatility, economic activity has remained stagnant since late 2022, and the output gap continues to narrow. In August, retail sales recorded a negative monthly change for the eighth consecutive month. In ...

A mid-week macro update

TURKEY · Report · 01 Nov 2023 · 1 response

As we’ve noted in Sunday’s post, the econ author could not contribute his share to the Weekly report as he was in transit on Sunday – and hence, today’s post, which provides a quick rundown of recent macro developments, along with a few quick thoughts and impressions from his meetings while in Lo...

Avdiivka offensive amid depleted Russian artillery

UKRAINE · Report · 31 Oct 2023

Despite no significant territorial gains being reported, the intensity of the fighting escalated along all fronts throughout September and October. Ukrainian forces continued their push south toward Tokmak, and have been gradually encircling the ruins of Bakhmut. However, since the beginning of O...

Politics: AMLO’s extended verbal onslaught against the Judiciary takes the form of budget cuts, cancelling trusts and the threat of a major constitutional reform

MEXICO · Report · 31 Oct 2023

Last week, Congress approved the administration’s proposal to cancel 13 out of 14 of the trusts of the Federal Judiciary, just the latest episode in the extended history of President López Obrador's offensive against this branch. However, the executive’s attacks on the judiciary have intensified ...