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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia prepares to repel Ukrainian offensive
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Apr 2023

Russia has strengthened its multilayered defenses. Ukraine's counter offensive is expected in May 2023. By then the spring will have thawed out the mud. Russian lines are over 800 km long. Russia's offensive has almost petered out. Russia holds most of Bakhmut but was supposed to have taken the e...

CFK presented her economic views but avoided public requests to run for president
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

This Thursday, Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) participated in the inauguration of the “Escuela Justicialista - Nestor Kirchner” (i.e. the School of Peronism - NK). CFK defined it as a school of “political, more than technical education” (would that be indoctrination?). She ga...

Infrastructure, anyone?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

In Washington for the World Bank / IMF Spring meetings earlier this month, the country’s economic managers turned the spotlight on infrastructure opportunities in the Philippines under the Marcos administration. In a half-day briefing that focused on the economy’s macro fundamentals and investmen...

Ukrainians kill collaborators
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

On April 25 a police officer in Melitopol was killed by a bomb and one other police officer was injured. The Ukrainian Mayor of the city fled to Ukrainian controlled territory in 2022. He commented that the dead man was a Ukrainian police officer who had gone over to the side the invaders. Russia...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023 · 1 response

After the rapid depreciation at the beginning of April, the ruble stabilized in the R/$81 to R/$82 range. As some correction of oil prices occurred, we don’t think there are many reasons to expect the ruble to strengthen significantly soon. In addition, in May, Minfin may start purchasing FX on t...

The STJ decided to authorize the collection of IRPJ and CSLL taxes on ICMS tax benefits, Pacheco read the request for the installation of the CPMI on the January 8 attacks, and Lira read three requests for CPIs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2023

The ministers decided to authorize the collection of the IRPJ and CSLL taxes on ICMS tax benefits. The decision, however, does not have immediate effect because an appeal will likely be filed. Yesterday, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), read the request that allows for the c...

Dog days of summer
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

Alert levels are expected to go up again over the Luzon grid as the hot summer months test the grid’s thin reserves. Data[1] show that from the last week of April through the third week of June, the Luzon grid is forecast to be on yellow alert. This means that the gap between supply and demand wi...

Ocampo is leaving. Big challenges ahead for Bonilla
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

President Petro reshuffled his cabinet and sacked 7 ministers (finance, agriculture, interior, health, science, IT & telecoms, transport). The most salient decision was to sack the Finance Minister (a total surprise to everybody, including Ocampo himself), who was acting as a living corset to the...

Sub-Saharan Africa: a region poised for growth
NIGERIA · Report · 26 Apr 2023 · 1 response

With this report we introduce our Sub-Saharan Africa service. Africa is a continent emerging from the shadows in terms of the global economy, with opportunities created by the inevitable expansion of global trade and investment. With a combined GDP of $1.6 trillion in 2021, the continent has 5...

A scary net wages figure was reported for February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023 · 1 response

The net (after-tax) wages of full-time employees rose by 0.8% yoy in nominal terms in February. This implies a 19.6% yoy drop by real net wages. Yes, indeed, real wages fell by one-fifth compared to February 2022. For the first two months of this year, the corresponding figures were 7.9% yoy grow...

The unwritten Law of Governability
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

Typically, at the beginning of a Colombian government, congressmen tell the ministers who still don’t know it, about the way things are handled vis-à-vis Government in that solemn bastion of representative democracy, National Congress. Namely, an iron law that has survived decades, and yet it isn...

Ecopetrol’s CEO first day in office
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

Public policy announcements made by government officials are one thing, and corporate strategy announcements, made by a business group CEO are an entirely different matter. If someone in government thinks, rightly or wrongly, that Colombia must eventually abandon oil and gas, that's up to them. T...

Presidential cabinet crisis
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

In the evening of April 25 president Petro twitted: “1. Our invitation to a social pact for change has been rejected. Those who have made fortunes with public moneys don’t realize that society at large asks for their rights to be respected; and that that implies dialogue and agreements. “2. The p...

The request for the installation of a CMPI on the January 8 attacks should be read today, the report on MP 1147/22 was approved in the House yesterday, and the House approved the urgent status request for the Fake News bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2023

Today, the president of Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) will read the request for the creation of the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) to investigate the January 8 attacks. Deputy Andre Fufuca (PP-MA) is being considered for the presidency of the CPMI. Yesterday, the government had an imp...

Moscow feeling threatened by Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

On April 25 it was announced that Red Square will be closed to the public for 2 weeks before the May 9 Victory Day Parade for security reasons. It is usually shut for 4 days before the parade. The May 9 parade commemorates World War II. Usually ordinary citizens are allowed to parade through the ...

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