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Famous Last Words: As luck would have it…
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 May 2023 · 1 response

It is time to say my final words, which are going to be substantially different than my comments in the last Weekly. I’ve always believed Erdogan’s greatest asset wasn’t his charisma, ruthlessness or the Machiavellian tactical intelligence, but luck. The last minute decision by protest candidate ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 May 2023

A number of interesting events affected the FX market in recent weeks. Note that the ruble significantly weakened in April and moved from R/$77 to about R/$82, which was partially explained by increased federal budget expenditures. In April alone, they accounted for over R3.1 trln. In January, th...

Hour Zero Approaches
ECUADOR · In Brief · 11 May 2023

The report recommending Guillermo Lasso should not be impeached was approved by four members of the review committee and rejected by five. According to the legal procedure, the plenary approved to start the impeachment process with 88 votes. The impeachment process could last two weeks or less, a...

Q1 GDP grew 6.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 May 2023

It was a good start for the Philippine economy, growing 6.4% in Q1 2023 and beating analysts’ median forecast of 6.1%. A quick look at the numbers suggests that pandemic-induced pent-up demand is still the major driver. The 6.3% growth in private consumption, which accounted for 3/4s of GDP growt...

Deputy Cajado may submit his report on the new fiscal framework today, Deputy Gleisi is calling for the text of the fiscal framework to remain intact, and the government released R$ 700 million in funds to members of Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2023

Today, Deputy Claudio Cajado (PP-BA) is expected to submit his report on the new fiscal framework bill. The president of the PT, Deputy Gleisi Hoffman, is calling for a meeting with Cajado before the plenary vote on the text. She criticizes the possibility of changes to the fiscal framework. The ...

Georgia and Russia normalize flights and visas
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 May 2023

On May 10 Russia said that Georgians will be allowed to enter the country for 90 days without a visa. Flights between the countries will be resumed for the first time since 2019. They were ended due to anti-Russian demonstrations in Georgia. Tens of thousands of Russians are in Georgia to avoid c...

UN chief says there is no sign of Russia-Ukraine peace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 May 2023

On May 9 Antonio Guterres said this in an interview. Both Ukraine and Russia still say that they are going to win. Guterres said he wants to expedite talks when possible. He made the statement while receiving an award for the advancement of European values. He reiterated that the UN is about ensu...

Courting Chaos
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 10 May 2023 · 2 responses

It is difficult to follow the dynamics of the Petro administration to try to find a common thread between the utterances and actions of its ministers. One day the president asks for COP 150 trillion from primary monetary issuance for victims of internal conflict; shortly after, from the balcony o...

Analysts guessed correctly, CPI-inflation indeed fell materially in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 May 2023

This time around, the analyst consensus, or more accurately the median analyst forecast in Portfolio.hu's poll, proved completely right: April CPI-inflation was reported at 0.7% mom, 24.0% yoy, the latter down from 25.2% in the previous month and from the 25.7% yoy recorded in January. This was t...

Deputy Cajado may submit his report on the new fiscal framework by tomorrow, the government is negotiating votes for the sanitation decrees in the Senate, and the CPMI on the January 8 attacks still has no date for its installation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 May 2023

Deputy Claudio Cajado (PP-BA), the rapporteur of the new fiscal framework, is expected to submit his report by tomorrow. But he may postpone the submission depending on when the vote is scheduled. In the Senate, the government is trying to avoid a defeat on the sanitation decrees similar to what ...

Russian missiles strike Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 May 2023

On May 8 and 9 some 25 missiles were fired at Kyiv and other cities in the run-up to Russia's Victory Day Parade. Ukraine said it shot down 23 of the missiles, and only one person was hurt.  The President of the European Commission was in Kyiv at the time of the attacks. Russia usually desisted f...

Haddad announced the appointment of Gabriel Galipolo and Ailton Aquino as directors of the Central Bank, Padilha should meet with party leaders, and Pacheco said the government should accept the privatization of Eletrobras
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 May 2023

To replace Galipolo at the Treasury's executive secretariat, Haddad chose Dario Durigan, who has already worked with him as a special advisor in the city of São Paulo. The next Copom meeting to decide interest rates will be held on June 20 and 21. After the defeat of the sanitation decree, the Mi...

Economics: 2023 growth projections upwardly revised to 1.8%, but reduced for 2024
MEXICO · Report · 09 May 2023

Consumption and gross fixed capital formation figures for the first two months of the year, as well as preliminary GDP growth data for the first quarter (3.9%) were higher than expected, leading us to upwardly revise our growth projection for 2023 to 1.8%. Although the expectation of a recession ...

April CPI-inflation due tomorrow, first significant move downwards expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 May 2023

The median analyst, by Portfolio.hu's poll, expects 0.7% mom, 24% yoy, the latter down from 25.2% yoy in March. We are even more optimistic than this, expecting 0.8% mom for non-fuel inflation and -3.4% mom for fuels, the latter being an estimated actual, based on hontankoljak.net's data, a local...

Politics: AMLO’s moves against legislative branch norms and functioning are a warning sign
MEXICO · Report · 08 May 2023

A series of reforms approved by the Senate in the last few days of April are being widely viewed and criticized, not so much for their content (as in many of the cases), but rather due to the implications for the future of Mexican democracy inherent in how they were enacted. Critics among opposit...

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