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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation falls below 11% in February
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2023

Rosstat reported that m-o-m inflation in February was at 0.46%, and it fell to 10.99% y-o-y. At the same time, Rosstat announced that in seven days ending on March 6, inflation was 0.0%, implying that YTD inflation remained the same, namely at 1.3%. As inflation was close to zero in the past thre...

Current account surplus narrows in February but still remains strong enough
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2023

The CBR reported that the current narrowed to $5.8bn last month, while in January it was at $7.1bn. Therefore, in 2M23, it reached $12.9bn and was well below $37.7 bn in 2M22. The balance of goods and services was at $15.3 bn, implying that the income balance, i.e., the difference between the cur...

Slide presentation: Panama - Economic outlook 2023: Real and fiscal issues
PANAMA · Report · 10 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Get insight into Panama's macro outlook with the slides from Marco Fernandez's presentation, "Panama - Economic outlook 2023: Real and fiscal issues".

Lira said that the government does not have enough votes to approve bills, the opposition is still pushing for a CPI on the January 8 attacks, and the government is looking into publishing a decree on the sanitation sector
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2023

On Monday, during an event at the São Paulo Commercial Association, Lira said that the government does not have enough support to approve bills that require a simple majority. He said he is waiting for the government to organize itself. The opposition is still pushing for the installation of a Jo...

The puzzles of the exchange rate and monetary policy
INDIA · Report · 10 Mar 2023

RBI has defended an exchange rate of about 82 or 83 rupees to the dollar in recent weeks. This interest rate defence involves raising the short rate. The third outcome that RBI is managing is the long rate: in its capacity as the debt manager for the government, it has held down the long rate...

Russia’s Political/Pandemic Update: Fahrenheit 451 and a 360-Degree Turn
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Mar 2023

As the coronavirus pandemic is coming to an end, the geopolitical pandemic keeps spreading and contaminating more and more brains. Even though Russia suspended its participation in the Treaty on the Reduction of Strategic Offensive Arms (START), February was a routine month for Russian politics a...

South Africa records its first annual current account deficit since 2019
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Mar 2023

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that South Africa’s current account switched from a (revised) surplus of R3.1 billion in the third quarter to a deficit of R174 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022. As a ratio of GDP, the current account thus switched to a deficit of 2.6...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Mar 2023

Feb 24 KazTransOil: Kazakhstan has started transporting oil to export it to Germany Feb 25 Foreign Ministry: Kazakhstan welcomes China's position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and supports a peaceful solution to this problem based on the principles of the UN Charter. Feb 27 ...

The outlook for private investment
INDIA · Report · 09 Mar 2023

During the pandemic, at first, the biggest firms fared rather well, and this was reflected in the earnings growth of listed companies. There are two problems with this post-pandemic growth. First, this was a case of the biggest firms’ gaining share, which could only happen for a limited period of...

Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2023

On March 9 large scale attacks killed at least 7 Ukrainians and resulted in electricity cuts in many parts of Ukraine. Ukraine said that it had shot down almost half the 81 missiles. Power stations were targeted yet again. Lviv was one of the 10 regions targeted. Lviv is in the west of the countr...

Iran alleged to be arming Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2023

On March 8 a British TV channel claimed that Iran is shipping bullets, rockets and mortar shells to Russia via the Caspian Sea. The munitions were allegedly sent by two Russian cargo ships. Sky News said that the shipment included 100 million bullets, 300,000 shells and 10,000 flak jackets and he...

Peso debt swap with a renewed BCRA put option to shield the domestic debt market ahead of the elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Mar 2023

Tomorrow, Thursday, March 9, from 10:00 AM to 3:30 PM (BA time), the Treasury will be receiving bids to participate in a debt swap to extend the maturity of peso debt instruments, offering inflation-adjusted instruments maturing between April 2024 and February 2025. The government aims to push fo...

No big surprises from the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Mar 2023

Special points to highlight in this issue: * We are halfway through the “two sessions” meetings of the NPC and CPPCC with many of the major speeches on the budget, economic policies, and economic prospects delivered. China will target GDP growth this year of 5 percent, although Chinese provin...

Inflation fell a bit in February, the economy is weakening further - nothing unexpected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2023

What everyone had been expecting is now there in the actual data: following a sharp upsurge since about April last year, CPI-inflation edged down a bit, to 25.4% yoy in February, from 25.7% yoy in the previous month. Likewise, core inflation fell a little, to 25.2% yoy from 25.4% yoy. Yesss (!), ...

The chairs of the standing committees of Congress should be chosen, and the Tax Reform Working Group will hear from Bernard Appy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2023

Today, March 8, the chair and vice-chair candidates appointed by the leaders of the party blocs to the standing committees of the Senate will be elected. In the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL) also had the party leaders submit the list of candidates to chair the standing committees. Today, the Tax Ref...

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