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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Feb 2023

Just over a month since taking office, Lula has begun indicating what he intends to accomplish in his third term. What has emerged is not the statesman who promised to unify the country around an inclusive development project in his inaugural address. Instead, he has rapidly returned to feeding t...

Politics: The Morena legislative agenda is at the service of AMLO's main political interests
MEXICO · Report · 06 Feb 2023

Now that Congress has reconvened, the administration is focused on putting the final touches on its electoral agenda as the 2024 presidential contest draws nearer. For starters, there is the small matter of the Chamber of Deputies' stripping out the "eternal life clause” from the version of the "...

The first 30 days of the Lula government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2023

Today, February 6, Aloizio Mercadante will assume the presidency of the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES). President Lula will travel to the US to meet with President Joe Biden on Friday, February 10. The Central Bank (BC) publishes the minutes of the most recent Monetary Policy Committee (Copom...

Retail sales growth continued to slide downhill, became negative in December for the first time since Covid
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Feb 2023

Retail sales fell by 1% mom, 1.3% yoy in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms in December. This was the first negative yoy growth number since March 2021, and it continued a marked straight-line slowdown that started with April 2022. For a few months in late 2022, this deceleration was containe...

Aloizio Mercadante takes over as president of the BNDES, Lula will travel to this US this week to meet with President Biden, and the STF will resume judgment of the cases that discuss limiting sentences in tax matters
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2023

Today, former Minister Aloizio Mercadante will take over as president of the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES). President Lula (PT) and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) will participate in the ceremony in Rio de Janeiro. This week, President Lula (PT) will make his third trip abroad since be...

Private sector wage pressure continues
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Feb 2023

1. Bond yields declined, and the shekel appreciated, partially correcting for the recent sell-off, but both will continue to react to political developments. 2. Private sector wages continue to accelerate rapidly, while public sector pressure is mounting for a wage agreement. 3. Despite re...

Engine overheating
TURKEY · Report · 05 Feb 2023

The Joint Policies Protocol (JPP) of the opposition Nation Alliance, a coalition program of sorts, earned grudging respect from skeptics, but little public enthusiasm. It needs sexy slogans and a champion to sell it in Anatolia. That person would be the joint presidential candidate of the Nation ...

Private sector wage pressure continues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Feb 2023

Uncertainty regarding the judicial reforms continues Last week, the shekel strengthened and bond yields declined, partially correcting for the sell-off in the previous week. Several international investment banks have expressed concern regarding the proposed judicial reforms, including JP Morgan ...

Belarus's President visits foreign states
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2023

On January 30 Lukashenko visited Zimbabwe. The purpose was to enhance economic and political links. The two countries cooperate on mining and agriculture. Belarus has been donating farm equipment to Zimbabwe since 2019. The President of Zimbabwe visited Belarus in 2019. Zimbabwe is one of a few c...

New York Times says US estimates Russia has suffered 200 K casualties
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2023

On February 2 the newspaper said the estimate comes from confidential US government sources and is backed by other Western governments. It includes killed, wounded and captured. The estimate comes from satellite images, listening in on communications, social media posts and Russia media. NYT said...

Russian macro: credit market getting back to normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2023

Even though banks were among the first targets of the Western sanctions that bombarded the Russian economy last year, the country’s banking sector reported profits in 2022 as a whole, as 2H22 profits overshadowed 1H22 losses. As geopolitical changes forced the domestic economic environment to cha...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi growth leads G20, Kuwait budgets a huge deficit, Bahrain-Qatar flights may resume
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Feb 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * As expected, OPEC+ left quotas unchanged through April, but oil dipped on US stock building. * Qatar and Kuwait were the only Gulf states that did not mirror the Fed’s +25bp hike. * Saudi Arabia’s 8.7% growth in 2022 was ...

Ouch!
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2023

Consumer prices rose by 6.65%, m/m, in January, significantly higher than the consensus forecast of around 3.8%, and even more so than ours. Our forecast error, which, admittedly, is the largest as far back as we remember it, stems mainly from a substantial underestimation of food inflation (part...

Lula once again criticized the Central Bank, former President Bolsonaro had a difficult start to the year, and Lula is scheduled to meet with President Joe Biden next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2023

Lula said that he will wait for Roberto Campos Neto's term to end before assessing what an independent Central Bank means. He also said that Brazil does not need such a low inflation target. Former President Jair Bolsonaro did not start the year well. The candidate he supported lost the Senate el...

Inflation in Kazakhstan moderates in January but still remains high
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Feb 2023

Inflation m-o-m decelerated to 1.1% in January and was down from 1.2% in December, 1.4% in November, 1.6% in October, and 1.8% in September. Even though the m-o-m deceleration of inflation looks steady, it reached 20.7% y-o-y in January. Food price inflation reached 25.7% y-o-y, and in the non-fo...

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