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No Russian crude oil is currently flowing into Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

We apologise for raising the flag the second time today on something that happened Hungary. Normally, events should be on holiday at this time of the year, but somehow this is not the time for a calm and balanced summer recess. So the thing is that, as reported today, the usually continuous impor...

Bolsonaro participated in an event at the Febraban yesterday, Lula will participate in a debate at the Fiesp today, and the TSE denied the Ministry of Defense access to documents from the 2014 and 2018 elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2022

The Febraban said that it does not like high interest rates, would like predictability and that it is willing to establish dialog, while President Jair Bolsonaro said he wants transparency in the voting process and criticized the PT. Today, former President Lula will participate in a debate at th...

Avoiding the Bermuda Triangle
COLOMBIA · Report · 09 Aug 2022

The three legs of the governability triangle that the new government seems to be working on most intensely are: 1) politics 2) the economy, and 3) the so-called “Total Peace,” plus security force reform. On the political front, there is clear progress, with President Gustavo Petro stating that he...

Iranian satellite launched by Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

On August 9 the satellite was launched from a Kazakh space station that is run by Russia. It is suspected that this might help Russia to ameliorate its surveillance of Ukraine. The Soyuz rocket carried a Khayyam satellite that is Iranian made. It is now in orbit. Tehran has not criticized Russia ...

July consumer inflation at 2.3% mom, 13.7% yoy; the MNB has been vindicated
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

Local analysts, expecting 13% yoy for the headline CPI-inflation rate of July, apparently underestimated the upward potential. The MNB did better with its 13-14% yoy forecast range. Anyway, the figures look quite ugly. The leading driver was food, up 4.1% mom, 27% yoy, a very unseasonal phenomeno...

2Q GDP growth slows to 7.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported today that GDP grew 7.4% year-on-year (yoy) in 2Q. The relatively high headline growth number continues to reflect base effects, i.e., impact of pandemic and lockdowns on last year’s GDP, and is roughly in line with the 7.5% median forecast of analysts...

Ukraine announces a unit of Russian defectors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

Kyiv is keen to let the media know that the Ukrainian Army has recruited Russian dissidents. Some of them are Prisoners of War who have been allowed to change sides. They are called the Freedom of Russia Legion. Some of them traveled to Ukraine via third countries. The number of soldiers in the F...

Economics: Data released in July shows weakening growth while global slowing casts a pall
MEXICO · Report · 08 Aug 2022

Inegi’s preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP showed the economy continuing to cruise along at roughly the same pace as it did between January and March. The report shows continuing gains in the agricultural and service sectors but especially the secondary sector, which despite setbacks in i...

The Central Bank’s Policy and the Growth of the Neutral Interest Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Aug 2022

At the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank raised the Selic rate to 13.75% a year and did not rule out one or more new increases of lesser magnitude. Even though it is widely recognized that monetary policy is already strongly restrictive, which will lead to a decline of inflation, criticisms ex...

Politics: Morena internal elections plagued by massive irregularities
MEXICO · Report · 08 Aug 2022

Over the weekend of July 30-31, Morena held internal elections to select delegates to its national congress slated for September 17-18. The congress will elect a new National Council and National Executive Committee. This coming weekend the same delegates will meet to elect their respective state...

Candidates' challenges on the road to the Planalto Palace and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2022

This week, the government's expanded social aid programs begin. The sanction of the LDO is also expected. The Fiesp and civil society organizations publish the Letter in Defense of Democracy. In the Judiciary, emphasis is given to the resumption of the judgment on the Administrative Improbity Law...

Fiscal adjustment remains on track in July; CPI-inflation prospects for tomorrow's data release
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2022

The central government's cash balance was a HUF256bn surplus, which brought the cumulative seven-month deficit down to 7.4% of GDP, from H1's 9.6% and a record-high 16% in Q1. Although July tends to be a month with relatively strong fiscal cash flow, because of a quarterly peak of VAT payments, t...

From Russia, with love
TURKEY · Report · 08 Aug 2022 · 1 response

Over the last two weeks, news flow from Russia has been the subject of much attention and controversy in Turkey. Market attention on the “Russian news pipeline” began with an article in Bloomberg heralding cash transfers from Rosatom to Turkey for the construction expenses of Akkuyu nuclear react...

The government’s social aid programs begin, tomorrow is the deadline for Bolsonaro to sanction the LDO, and latest poll shows the smallest gap between Lula and Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2022

The Auxílio Brasil payments will rise from R$ 400 to R$ 600, and the gas voucher will be paid at R$110. This is the government's main hope to improve its popularity ratings. The LDO was approved by Congress on July 12. Based on the premises defined by the LDO, the government will send the Federal...

The shekel appreciates sharply, supporting lower inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Aug 2022

* Wage growth in the private sector continues, mostly in hi-tech and finance. * Sharp shekel appreciation and lower energy prices have pushed our inflation forecast down. * Recent escalation in violence is not expected to have any real impact on growth or on markets. A cease fire was rea...

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