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The path of disinflation: between desire and reality
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Mar 2025

The Central Bank has signaled its understanding that the economy needs to slow down for inflation to converge to the target. In this report, we attempt to estimate the growth rate that aligns with the Central Bank’s scenario, particularly the path that moves from a positive output gap of 0.7% at ...

Politics: Exposure of extermination center, crematoriums rocks Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 17 Mar 2025

In a country not lacking in political, economic, and social scandals, Mexican society was jolted by news of the discovery of an extermination center in Teuchitlan, Jalisco on March 8. Photos of clandestine crematoriums, graves containing charred human remains, and hundreds of personal objects suc...

The Joint Budget Committee will vote on the report on Wednesday, the government should send a bill exempting individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 from income tax, and the Monetary Policy Committee will meet this week to decide on the interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2025

The Joint Budget Committee will meet on Wednesday (March 19) to vote on Senator Angelo Coronel's (PSD-BA) report on the 2025 Federal Budget. Tomorrow, the government is expected to send Congress a bill exempting individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 from income tax (IR). Currently, only those earnin...

Not much came out of the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Mar 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: • So far, I expect economic activity in 2025 to look a lot like economic activity in 2024. In 2025 we can expect a reduction in the astonishingly high contribution of net exports to GDP growth in 2024, balanced by an increase in the disappointingly l...

Monetary policy in the shadow of elections. A look at confidence indicators.
POLAND · Report · 17 Mar 2025

The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) has maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing persistent inflationary pressures driven by rising energy prices, food costs, and services. Its March 12 decision to hold interest rates steady reflects an ongoing belief that inflationary trends remain a concern. The ...

On original and mortal sins
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Mar 2025

Critics of the Caputo Plan of December 2023 would have preferred that the myriad exchange controls that constitute the so-called "cepo cambiario" (hereinafter, "cepo") had been eliminated at the start of the plan or shortly thereafter. According to them, the failure to do so by the government is ...

Inflation in Israel slows in February below expectations; No imminent rate change expected
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Mar 2025

Inflation continues to ease: February CPI reading remains flat and below forecasts The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February remained unchanged, below our expectations for a 0.2% increase, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.4%, from 3.8% in January. Core inflation indicators have also...

The mood music and stark realities
TURKEY · Report · 16 Mar 2025

In wone of his most rambling contributions to our Sunday Weekly, the politics author hereby suspends his baseline political scenario of early elections latest by end-March 2026. Alas, he has nothing to replace it with. The first essay explains why numerous connivences to ban Imamoglu will neither...

A postmortem for Ukraine’s Kursk offensive as Russia rejects ceasefire terms
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2025

- Russia launches successful offensive in Kursk sector, ejecting Ukrainian troops from most of the territory. - Russia could continue advancing into Ukraine’s territory across the Kursk border if no ceasefire is agreed, as Ukraine evacuates villages in the Sumy Region. - Ukraine ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi non-oil GDP rises, Kuwait’s cabinet approved the debt law, SWFs make large acquisitions
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Mar 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi non-oil GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in 2024, led by trade & hospitality and finance. * A Neom audit report raised concerns about rising costs and unrealistic revenue projections. * PIF’s video game subsidiary bou...

Webinar Replay - Debt and deficits in emerging markets: South Africa, Indonesia and Brazil - The good, the bad and the ugly?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Mar 2025

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Iraj Abedian (South Africa), Alexandre Schwartsman (Brazil), and Cyrillus Harinowo (Indonesia) discussing public debt in these key emerging economies and where the good, the bad and the ugly of emerging markets fiscal policymak...

41% of Brazilians rate Lula’s administration poorly, the STF should analyze the indictment against Bolsonaro for the alleged attempted coup on March 25, and Congress may approve the 2025 Federal Budget next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2025

An Ipsos-Ipec poll released yesterday shows that President Lula’s (PT) administration is considered bad or very bad by 41% of Brazilians. According to the polling institute, the negative ratings (bad or very bad) has increased by seven percentage points compared to the December poll. The presiden...

Reflections on economic growth: dynamics and risks
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Mar 2025

At end-January 2024, the Philippines’ statistical authority announced that the country’s economy expanded by 5.6%, just a tad higher than the 5.5% growth in 2023. Growth was propelled by financial and insurance activities up 8.5 percent; construction up 7.8 percent; and wholesale and retail trade...

Growth reportedly soared in February – economic surprise or statistical puzzle?
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Mar 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported in February that the short-term indicator (that captures activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation/warehousing, communications, and trade) soared as in 2M25, it grew by 7.3% y-o-y. In January, it was up by 4.5 y-o-y, followed by a s...

Topic of the week - 1Q2025 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Mar 2025

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 216-slide detailed description of the economic status-quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the first quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...

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