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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

External fundamentals remain exceptionally strong for the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Mar 2022

The current account surplus in Q421 increased to 6.6bn USD up from 4.9bn in Q321. In all of 2021, the surplus reached 22.5bn (similar to 2020) or 4.7% of GDP. In Q421 the service account surplus continued to expand on strong hi-tech exports by 1.2bn while the trade deficit remained stable. Net FD...

The fallout from a faraway war
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Mar 2022

Below updates are intended to give readers a better sense of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is affecting the local economy. Gas stations carried out this week their heftiest price increase so far this year, bringing gasoline prices about 20% above December 2021 levels. The upward adjustments wi...

Russia’s inflation accelerates in February and early March, higher numbers yet to come
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2022

Rosstat reported that the m-o-m inflation in February reached 1.17%, which brought the y-o-y and YTD inflation to 9.15% and 2.17%. In seven days ending March 4, inflation w-o-w was reported at 2.22%, and the MTD inflation reached 1.26% as Rosstat split the w-o-w inflation between the two months. ...

February inflation and budget deficit both look bad... but could have been much worse indeed
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Mar 2022

CPI-inflation rose further to 8.3% yoy in February from 7.9% yoy in the previous month. Prices rose by 1.1% in February alone. High inflation is pretty much broad-based now, with 69% of the consumer basket with at least 5% yoy increases. Core inflation was also up, to 8.1% yoy from January's 7.4%...

Russia bans large scale currency transactions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2022

On March 8 Russia banned foreign currency sales. This is an attempt to hold up the value of the currency. This law will last until September 9 2022 and then be reviewed. Those with any foreign currency accounts can withdraw USD 10 000 and only in USD not other currencies.The official rate is 120 ...

Political poll summary for the 2022 elections
COLOMBIA · Report · 09 Mar 2022

In this slide presentation, we report on the most recent polling data in anticipation of the upcoming March 13 and May 29 elections in Colombia. This data includes vote intentions for political coalitions in the March 13 elections, vote intentions for presidential candidates in the May 29 electio...

​KUWAIT: Research tour finds a gloomy atmosphere and reduced momentum for debt issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Mar 2022

A research trip in Kuwait this week revealed a gloomy atmosphere given longstanding bureaucratic and corruption issues and a lack of vision and leadership. Although the oil surge has brought a fiscal reprieve and means that the need for debt issuance is now less urgent, the underlying problems co...

The 14th day of war: “green corridor” for civilians amid counterattack prospects
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Mar 2022

“Russian army is not strong, it’s just long” – it’s a popular joke in nowadays perfectly depicting what is going on at the frontline. Every time Russians approach positions of Ukrainian forces – they are destroyed and then Ukrainian soldiers sit patiently awaiting new portions of Russians coming....

The fuel issue remains the main matter on the agenda, the STF will judge the PDT’s case on the Clean Record Law, and a new presidential poll will be published today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2022

Between the two bills on the fuel issue, PLP 11 has more support in the Senate than PL 1472. The governors, as well as the rapporteur, Senator Jean Paul Prates, support the bill that deals with the price stabilization fund — PL 1472. President Bolsonaro will meet with Ciro Nogueira, Paulo Guedes,...

What is Maduro's bet?
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Mar 2022

As soon as the invasion of Ukraine began, Maduro proclaimed his allegiance to Russia with extreme subservience, contrary to the overwhelming majority of nations that repudiated it or at least avoided condemning it, such as Cuba, Nicaragua, and other Russian partners. In the immediate term, ris...

Armenia benefits from Russian businesses relocating there
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2022

Stringent Western sanctions are causing Russian businesses to move to the Caucasian former Soviet republic. Most people in Armenia can speak fluent Russian and the country is very friendly with Moscow. Russians have visa free entry to Armenia. Armenia is also a transit country for flying to the E...

The South African economy rebounded strongly in 2021
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2022

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) today indicate that South Africa’s economy grew positively in the final quarter of 2021 following its contraction during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP recorded a growth rate of 1.2% q/q, an indication...

US bans import of Russian oil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2022

On March 8 President Biden made the announcement. He told the American public that gasoline would cost more as a result. The move reverses his policy stated last week of continuing to permit Russia oil imports. The US is struggling to contain inflation as it is. Biden warned US companies not to e...

Zelensky open to compromise
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2022 · 2 responses

The Ukrainian President said he is prepared to consider recognizing Crimea as Russian and independence for the Luhansk and Donetsk Republics, he said on March 7. However, he rejected ultimatums. Moscow said it would instantly end the war if Ukraine agreed to its demands. This includes neutrality ...

A moderate but important tightening step from the MNB today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2022 · 1 response

Just as expected, the MNB used today's prescheduled non-rate-setting meeting to tighten further, in view of yesterday's big weakening of the forint. But the Bank did relatively little on this occasion: it raised the ceiling of the interest rate corridor, which is the interest rate for O/N and 1-w...

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