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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

First thoughts on 2022
TURKEY · Forecast · 16 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

We deviate a little from our quarterly report format in this round because of the extremely uncertain context, sharing some preliminary thoughts and qualitative scenarios for 2022 instead. The ongoing “experiment” around the New Economic Model (NEM), which is unsustainable, in our view -- beca...

We expect a rate hike on April 11th
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jan 2022

Inflation surprises on the upsideo Inflation in December increased by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for 0.1%), and 2.8% y/y. Core inflation increased by 2.7%.o Inflation surprises were mostly broad-based, with housing rental prices accelerating to 3.3% y/y (from 2.9% last month).o We expect inflati...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC ministers visit China, pipeline consortium bond disappoints, Qatar Q3 GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Jan 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases rose by two-thirds to new records, although deaths remain low. * Oil rose to $85, close to its highest since 2014, despite a resolution to Libya’s production outage and hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks ...

Inflation remained at a 14-year peak in December, beating forecasts once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2022

Forecasts by private sector analysts (with a median value of 7.1% yoy) and by the MNB (6.9% yoy given in the Q4 inflation report of late December) were defeated again by the actual 7.4% yoy headline rate of CPI-inflation in December, as reported today. This was the same number as in November, whi...

Webinar Replay: Turkey 2022 Outlook Webinar
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jan 2022

​​Cut through the uncertainty and understand what's ahead for Turkey in 2022. Visit our events calendar to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada discussing Turkey’s macro and political outlook.

Market volatility increases as geopolitical noise hit Russia
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Jan 2022

The Russian economy is waking up after a long New Year holiday break in a volatile environment caused by geopolitical noise. Compared to December 31, the Russian 10Y OFZ yields jumped by around 100 bps on January 14. The Russian ruble nearly attained almost the R/$ 77 benchmark on January 5, ahea...

President Bolsonaro decides that the Office of the Chief of Staff must approve of the management of the public budget, the issue of the public servants’ salary raise continues to cause problems for the government, and another poll will be released today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jan 2022

Bolsonaro’s decision undoubtedly strengthens the power of the PP party in relation to the budget issue and reduces the centrality of the decision of the Ministry of the Economy. However, the decision makes sense; the Chief of Staff is part of the Budget Board, which deals with issues related to t...

High inflation is likely to support a rate hike in April
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jan 2022 · 1 response

December’s CPI surprises on the upside Following two months of downward inflation surprises, inflation in December reached 0.3% m/m (expectations were for 0.1%) and 2.8% y/y (up from 2.4% last month).Food prices surprised on the upside, increasing by 0.5% m/m and 3.5% y/y. Rental prices (OER) inc...

Omicron rises (in Jamaica)
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 14 Jan 2022

Last week, Thursday evening on January 6, Jamaica’s Minister of Health Christopher Tufton held an emergency press conference to mark Jamaica’s highest ever number of new daily Covid cases, at 1120, as of January 5, combined with one of our highest ever positivity rates, at 46.8% (the average for ...

January starts with bad news
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Jan 2022 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation in December was 3.8%, up from 2.5% in November, and the prospects for January are still worse. The monetary base has been expanding at 12% per month since the beginning of December. The Central bank has increased the interest rate and the pace of adjustment of the officia...

State finance secretaries meet to discuss whether the freeze on the ICMS tax on fuels should be extended, Paulo Guedes remains against granting salary raises to public servants, and a new poll on the election is expected today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2022

The meeting of the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance (Comsefaz) is scheduled for 3 p.m. The freeze was instituted in October last year amid a scenario of successive increases in fuel prices and is valid until January 31. The Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, should meet with the p...

Oil will be key to defend the bolivar - amendment
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Jan 2022

Please see the amendments to Table 2 at the end of this report. Venezuela’s first hyperinflation cycle has ended. In December 2021, inflation slowed to an average monthly rate of 19 percent and an annual rate of 686 percent. The policy framework that brought hyperinflation to a halt lasted ...

Export growth remains strong in Q4
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Jan 2022

Export growth remains strong in Q4 Manufacturing exports expanded by 13% saar in Q4 following growth of 25% in Q3. Export growth was concentrated in computer components, pharmaceuticals and defense industries. Manufacturing exports increased by 15% in all of 2021. In Q4, imports of raw materials ...

No rate hike today, analysts expect slightly lower CPI-inflation for December
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2022

The weekly deposit tender is held by the MNB today. The fixed interest rate for the tender was set at 4% again, unchanged from last week. Looking at the forint's position at EURHUF 355, the lack of any further rate hike this time is genuinely unsurprising. Indeed, the forint has appreciated sharp...

NATO-Russia talks come to nought
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2022

On January 12 the talks on Ukraine did not reach an agreement. NATO refused to rule out NATO membership. Both sides agreed to continue negotiating.Moscow wanted limits on the numbers of NATO troops deployed in Eastern Europe. NATO has not agreed to such a measure since the Cold War. Russia is off...

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