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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Real estate further cooling the economy
CHINA · Report · 29 Nov 2021

The Chinese economy faced more downward pressure in October. Industrial output was up 3.5% y/y, down 1.4 pps from Q3. Investment was also weak, with investment growth falling to 8% y/y in the January-October period. The adjusted monthly growth rate should be negative for September and October. ...

Rebound – but with challenges ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2021

Costa Rica’s Presidential elections will be held on February 6th, 2022. Right now there are 27 presidential candidates, none of them have the 40% of the vote, according to recent polls. Elections will gravitate around three subjects: unemployment, the cost of living and corruption in government. ...

The Precatórios PEC should be put to a vote in the CCJ, the Senate should begin analyzing several appointments including André Mendonça’s to the STF, and President Bolsonaro joins the PL tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2021

The probability is for the Precatórios PEC to be approved in the CCJ, as it only needs a simple majority. However, the government is still trying to gather the minimum of 49 votes for the vote in the Plenary. There is no specific date for André Mendonça’s confirmation hearing in the CCJ, but Sena...

Kyrgyz Government parties win election and the opposition cries foul
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2021

On November 28 the results were announced showing that pro-government parties have secured 36 of the 54 party list seats. The Fatherland Party, the Trust Party and the Harmony Party all performed strongly. Together they took over 40% of the vote. Ray of Faith (a moderate Islamic party) also won s...

The shekel weakens on market volatility
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Nov 2021

Highlights: The Governor stresses lower for longer * The MPC emphasized that inflation in Israel is lower than in most countries and within target, allowing for patience regarding tightening. The MPC stressed the downside risks of another Covid wave, which appears more of a real possibil...

The shekel weakens on market volatility; the Governor stressed low rates for longer
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Nov 2021

Highlights of the weekly macro review:The Governor stresses low for longer The MPC emphasized that inflation in Israel is lower than in most countries and within target, allowing for patience regarding tightening. The MPC stressed the downside risks of another Covid wave, which appears more of a ...

Ukrainian President claims there is a coup plot against him
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2021

On November 26 Zelensky made the extraordinary claim. This is as there is a significant Russian build up of forces close to the Ukrainian Frontier. However, Zelensky said that the Ukrainian Military is able to meet any threat. It is true that the military has been upgraded by almost a generation ...

This time is different
TURKEY · Report · 28 Nov 2021 · 2 responses

This is our second stab at forecasting Turkey’s near-term political and economic future under President Erdogan’s “new economic model” (henceforth, NEM). There is still a dense fog of uncertainty surrounding the modus operandi of the NEM, how the opposition and public will react to it; and of cou...

Good news on Covid, at last
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Nov 2021

A so-called Vaccination Week is being held in Hungary since Monday, meaning that people can get Covid vaccines at a big number of 'vaccination points' (typically hospitals) without any previous registration, through extended hours every day. As a result, nationwide vaccination numbers have starte...

Russia hosts talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2021

On November 26 the leaders of the two Caucasian countries met with Putin in Sochi. The aim of the talks is to allay tensions over the territorial dispute. Exchanges of fire between the two nations led to the deaths of 13 soldiers earlier in November 2021. Armenia accused the Azerbaijanis of incur...

Growth seems to pick up, but differences between the estimates by INEC and the MEF are large
PANAMA · Report · 26 Nov 2021

The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) grew 18% in September compared with the same month of 2020, according to a preliminary (and revisable) information from INEC. Mining, construction (especially public works), retail, the Colon Free Zone, telecommunications, seaports, Panama Canal tolls, p...

Zelensky claims Akhmetov involved in coup d’etat
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Nov 2021

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy gathered journalists for a press conference today. He was trying to address a series of scandals his administration has been suffering over the last several weeks, which involve the release of Bellingcat investigation on so-called Wagnergate (failed operation of Ukra...

GULF WEEKLY: Covid variant knocks oil, MBZ visits Turkey, Kuwait fiscal data to October
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Nov 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices took a hit, more from the new Covid variant than the US strategic reserves release plan. * Gulf states may be split on whether to pause the taper at next week's OPEC+ meeting. * A $15bn Aramco investment into ...

Webinar replay: Chile post election briefing
CHILE · Report · 26 Nov 2021

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of Dr. Robert Funk discussing the impact and implications of Chile's November 2021 elections.

An agreement on the Precatórios PEC still has not been reached, the STF began analyzing the constitutionality of the sanitation law, and the Auxílio Brasil MP expires on December 7
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Nov 2021

The text of the Precatórios PEC may need to be changed to obtain the necessary votes. A group of seven parties is mobilizing to propose an alternative text to the one approved in the House. The vote in the Constitution and Justice Committee is scheduled for Tuesday. As expected, the analysis of t...

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