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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: The fight against corruption and the pursuit of justice are among issues still pending under the 4T
MEXICO · Report · 08 Nov 2021

Despite the constant barrage of public declarations affirming that the fight against corruption is nothing less than the centerpiece of his governmental program, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been more talk than action, with results in cases involving high-level officials being extrem...

What is The True Dimension of The Fiscal Problem?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Nov 2021

When one speaks of fiscal unanchoring, the fear immediately arises that the country is once again headed toward “fiscal dominance”. This is not the case now, and the main reason is that the Central Bank is now formally independent and will use the instrument within its grasp – the SELIC rate – to...

The Chamber tries to conclude the vote on the Court-ordered payments PEC, Minister Paulo Guedes is going to the House to talk about his accounts abroad, Sergio Moro joins the Podemos, practically confirming his presidential candidacy.
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Nov 2021

The Chamber tries to conclude the vote on the Court-ordered payments PEC. Due to the results of the first round vote, there are risks for the government. Minister Paulo Guedes is going to the House to talk about his accounts abroad. The Senate Economic Affairs Committee votes on the privatization...

Eleven edits to the Court-ordered payments PEC need to be analyzed, the PDT will meet to discuss its position regarding the PEC, and the Senate’s CAE should vote on the privatization of the Correios tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Nov 2021

In order for the first round of voting on the Court-ordered payments PEC to be concluded, 11 edits must be analyzed – four of which are critical. The PDT caucus in the House will meet today to discuss the party’s position on the PEC. After criticizing the fact that 15 out of the party’s 24 deputi...

Fiscal deficit declines sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Nov 2021

Positive fiscal numbers in October The fiscal budget in October reflects a fiscal surplus of 4.4bn, compared to a deficit of 20.4bn last year. The cumulative fiscal deficit LTM declined to 5.5% GDP from 7.2% last month and 11.9% in March. Revenues continue to surprise on the upside due to strong ...

The shekel continues to appreciate sharply
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Nov 2021

The CBS business confidence survey points to increasing optimism and accelerating activity ahead. Employment growth surged in the first two weeks of October following the holiday season. Pressure for shekel appreciation continues as the Governor sees less justification for intervention given the ...

The shekel continues to appreciate sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Nov 2021

Strong employment growth in October Following the Jewish holiday season, the number of employed increased sharply reaching the pre-Covid level. The employment/population ratio reached 59.8% compared to 60.5% pre-Covid. Wage growth has averaged around 4% annual, with stronger growth concentrated i...

The Weekly Update (sorry, we ran out of snappy titles)
TURKEY · Report · 07 Nov 2021

As winter approaches, rising poverty is the most important concern among citizens and the most likely cause of social instability in the coming months. Various survey data for October find disturbing levels of hardship among majority of citizens. President Erdogan may be sick, but it is comfor...

Yukos shareholders will not receive USD 50 billion compensation - Dutch Court
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2021

On November 5 the Supreme Court of the Netherlands overturned an order for Russia to pay USD 50 billion to former shareholders of Yukos. The oil giant was dismantled years ago. However, the case looks likely to continue. The Amsterdam Court of Appeal is going to reconsider the case.Yukos was owne...

Growth slowing, with electricity under rationing
CHINA · Forecast · 05 Nov 2021

Growth has slowed, with real estate investment cooling dramatically. In Q3, GDP was up 4.9% y/y, the same rate as in Q3 2020, and lower than in Q2 2021. Industrial output in Q3 fell dramatically, rising 4.9% y/y, down 0.9 pps from Q3 2020, and up 2.1% y/y in September. Investment was up 7.3% y...

Official growth forecast reduced for 2021
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2021

Finance minister Varga announced at a conference yesterday that the government now expects 6.8% real GDP growth for this year, scaled back from the previous 7.3% figure the Ministry predicted just one month ago. Mr. Varga said the lower growth figure was due to the expected negative impact of hig...

Russian macro: mortgages to remain in demand despite higher key rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Nov 2021

Consumer credit and mortgages, which grew fast during the pandemic, remain among the pillars of Russia’s economic growth. In 2Q20 the government offered subsidies for mortgages so that households were able to borrow at a fixed rate (6.5%), implying that banks provided mortgage loans below the mar...

GULF WEEKLY: Strong October PMIs, Dubai privatization drive, Dubai tourism rises in September
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Nov 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck with its 400k b/d taper in December, despite US pressure. Iran will return to nuclear talks at the end of the month. * MBS was a no-show at the G20 and COP26, although other Gulf leaders attended. Gulf states p...

The second round of voting on the Court-ordered payments PEC should be held next week, Sérgio Moro may join the Podemos party, and the Senate CAE may vote on the privatization of the Correios
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2021

The main concern around the second round of voting on the Court-ordered payments PEC is the PDT. The party’s pre-candidate to the Planalto Palace, Ciro Gomes, said that his candidacy has been put on hold until the party takes a stand against the proposal in the second round. Arthur Lira believes ...

South Africa's 2021 local elections: worryingly low voter turnout and the sharp rise of coalitions
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Nov 2021

South Africa held its latest local (municipal) elections on November 1, elections that have been declared “free and fair” by the Electoral Commission of South Africa, but turned out to have had one of the lowest voter participation rates of the country’s young democracy. Only 12.3 million South A...

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