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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

What Appears and What is Hidden in the GDP Numbers for the First Quarter?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jun 2021

We have In the first quarter of 2021, GDP grew by 1.2%, leaving a carry-over of 4.9% to the year, prompting revisions of the growth forecasts for 2021. Some projections are as high as 5%, a rate that, depending on the circumstances, might well be achieved, but it is dependent upon a possible elec...

Turkey Covid Watch - June 7, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jun 2021

Covid cases continued to decline and are now close to the minimum levels reached in March, as well as in line with average levels in the EU. Vaccinations are up, but remain at low levels.

Brazilian Politics Weekly
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jun 2021

A busy week in the Senate Pandemic CPI. The Minister of Health, Marcelo Queiroga, is scheduled to testify. In the Senate, we highlight the provisional measure on Eletrobras, which could be voted on Thursday. On Tuesday, the PSDB will discuss the rules for the party primaries scheduled for Nove...

The new government is expected to be fiscally responsible
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Jun 2021

We view the new government as a positive development for the economy and fiscal policy (see the detailed analysis in our report). Broad unemployment has declined and further progress is expected when government support is reduced.

Minister of Health Marcelo Queiroga retestifies before the Senate’s COVID CPI and the Special Committee on Administrative Reform should be installed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jun 2021

The provisional measure that deals with the privatization of Eletrobras may be voted on Thursday. The Special Committee on Administrative Reform should be installed this week. PSDB leaders meet to discuss the upcoming primaries. The IPCA should be published on Wednesday.

Russia will use prison labor to offset lack of immigrants
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2021

Since March 2020 there has been an outflow of guestworkers from former Soviet states. They mostly come from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Armenia.Prisoners shall be used to complete the Baikal Amur Mainline Railroad. 600 prisoners will start work in June 2021. BAM had 15,000 laborers before the pand...

Kazakhstan refuses to impose sanctions on the West
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2021

On June 5 the Kazakhs said they rejected Moscow's proposal for Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) countries to sanction Western countries. The EEU comprises these two as well as Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Kazakhstan is the second biggest economy in the EEU.Nursultan City said that the EEU is eco...

Serbia and Argentina are producing the Russian vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2021

On June 4 it was announced that the two countries are making the Sputnk V. Serbia's objective is to make 4 million doses.Argentina and Serbia will export the vaccine once they have satisfied their domestic needs. The Russian Direct Investment Fund is marketing the vaccine.

Summertime, when the livin’ ain’t easy
TURKEY · Report · 06 Jun 2021

The YouTube broadcasts of a Mafia boss Mr. Sedat Peker are still creating tremors in Turkish politics, as each installment brings new charges and new persona into the plot. The recent broadcasts have focused on AKP members receiving kickbacks and the illicit weapons trade to fundamentalist entiti...

The new government is expected to be fiscally responsible
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jun 2021

Highlights:Politics: The new “change” government will be sworn in by next week, barring any unforeseen developments. We think this government is a positive development for fiscal policy and stimulating growth.Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery Broad unemployment declined t...

Putin bans 'extremist' candidates from elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2021

On June 6 the president signed a law which precludes those with any connection to 'extremist' bodies from seeking election to parliamment in September 2021 and for at least 3 years afterwards. The government is clearly worried about the elections. They have never gone this far before. Those with ...

Sleepless in Cali
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Jun 2021

Destabilization via vandalism, roadblocks in major cities and paralysis of the crucial Buenaventura seaport has been effective, proving Colombia quite vulnerable to obstructions in key logistical corridors. The country may be at a critical moment, similar to that of 1903, when Panama broke away. ...

Retail sales data was relatively strong in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

Retail sales fell 1% mom but rose 12.2% yoy, sda, in volume terms in April. The mom number was depressed by this year's Covid lockdown, whereas the yoy figure was greatly lifted by last year's lockdown, which resulted in an extremely big, 13.7% mom drop in April 2020.The conclusion from this data...

Economic performance improves in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s economic performance looked better in early 2021 than was earlier reported. The statistical agency revised upward previously published monthly data for services, transportation, and some other segments of the economy. Apart from agriculture (which was almost flat y-...

General Pazuello will not be punished for attending a political event, and the privatization of Eletrobras and Administrative Reform see progress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jun 2021

Former Minister of Health and General Eduardo Pazuello will not be punished. He was appointed Secretary of Strategic Studies of the government. Congress should vote on the CSLL rate for banks, the end to the Reiq program, the privatization of Eletrobras and Administrative Reform. Next week’s test...

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