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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Quite favorable inflation numbers for February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Mar 2021

The headline rate of CPI-inflation was reported this morning as 0.7% mom, 3.1% yoy, the latter up from a stable 2.7% yoy in each of the previous three months. This perfectly matched market expectation and almost perfectly matched ours. But more importantly, the report's details reflect a favorabl...

Higher oil prices offer temporary relief but could stall reforms
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 09 Mar 2021

Higher-than-expected oil prices are great news for the Gulf, particularly the weaker sovereigns, and deficits should be lower than originally feared; in the most bullish case even Saudi Arabia could achieve a surplus. However, even then, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait would still have significant finan...

Russia and EU spar over Sputnik V
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2021

The European Medicines Agency is considering approving the Russian coronavirus vaccine. An EMA official dismissed taking Sputnik V as ''playing Russian roulette''. Russia is mortally offended and demanded that this person apologize. Moscow says the remarks show political interference in the EMA's...

Justice Fachin’s decision means Lula is eligible to run
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2021 · 1 response

On Monday, Minister Edson Fachin, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), decided to annul the convictions of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 13th Circuit Court of Curitiba. According to the minister, the cases should be the responsibility of the Federal Justice Court of the Federal...

Politics: Governability at risk, Part II
MEXICO · Report · 08 Mar 2021

The complicated governability equation of the first two years of an administration with a severe governing capacity deficit for solving the country’s most pressing problems shows adverse results for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his 4T project that are unlikely to be reversed before h...

Main messages from the Emergency Amendment and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2021

All sights are on the vote on the Emergency Amendment in the House. The government is working to conclude the vote this week. Once approved, the government will draft a provisional measure specifically on the stimulus aid payments. The IBGE releases data on unemployment and the IPCA for February....

Economics: The impact of declining Pemex and CFE
MEXICO · Report · 08 Mar 2021

Although Pemex and CFE reported worse results than expected for 2020, no one could really claim to be terribly shocked by the dire state of their income statements and balance sheets. It’s a tragedy that has been in the making for quite some time, but one that raises serious concerns about the fu...

GDP in 2020 and Some Indications for 2021
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Mar 2021

The deepest of all recessions tracked by the CODACE lasted two quarters and caused GDP in 2020 to contract by 4.1%. On the demand side, the performance of household consumption was fundamental for the recovery that occurred in the third and fourth quarters. The greatest contribution came from the...

Sound start of vaccinations points to light at the end of the tunnel
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 08 Mar 2021

A series of important events in February gives us indications of what to expect in the near future. First, the vaccination process began on February 16th, and as of March 4th, 304,490 people, or 3.9% of the target population of 7.8 million, had been vaccinated. The goal is to vaccinate at lea...

The spike in inflation expectations is less justified in Israel
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Mar 2021

* Private consumption is set to accelerate as the economy has opened up significantly. * The fiscal deficit reached 12.4% of GDP; we expect a lower deficit of 8.5% by year-end. * Inflation expectations (as reflected in the bond market) have moved higher, but we think the inflation enviro...

Mediocre numbers for industry and retail sales in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2021

Industrial output changed by +0.2% mom, -3% yoy on sda basis in January, following a much better +1.4% yoy in Q4 2020. Similarly, retail sales changed by +0.5% mom, -0.9% yoy on sda basis in January, representing no improvement from -0.9% yoy in Q4. All figures are in volume terms, of course. In ...

The spike in inflation expectations is less justified in Israel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Mar 2021

Inflation expectations have increased in Israel (and globally) Yet, Israel has had a very low inflationary environment in recent years. The structural current account surplus will continue to support appreciation. In addition, Israel’s hi-tech service sector will continue to attract inflows. Assu...

On myths and illusions
TURKEY · Report · 07 Mar 2021 · 1 response

The Erdogan government has failed to suppress the raging COVID-19 epidemic or provide adequate financial aid to those who suffer from its consequences. A hasty decision to ease curfews and other social restrictions is backfiring badly, jeopardizing the all-critical summer tourism season. All p...

Cost of flights in Russia rises dramatically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Mar 2021

On March 3 Kommersant reported the hike in air fares. Russia is open to tourists from certain countries. The average price for a flight from Russia to a domestic destination was USD 212 in March 2021. That is 40% higher than what it was just before coronavirus.Tickets to Dubai are 100% higher YoY...

Kolomoisky designated corrupt by the US
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2021

On March 5 the United States stated that Ihor Kolomoisky is guilty of significant corruption. He and his close relatives have therefore been banned from entering the United States. It is speculated that the banned list might be extended to cover his associates.The statement against Kolomoisky rel...

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