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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​As TL heads for a crash, does Erdogan have a strategy?
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Oct 2020

I’m writing this Market Brief at noon, when dollar/TL pair shot up to 8.15. I can’t prove it, but I fear most of the pressure now comes from domestic savers, who may be cashing their TLs for hard currency at exchange bureaus, or even withdrawing their FX deposits. The tale of the tape is simple. ...

Good news, lingering doubts
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Oct 2020

Amidst a succession of GDP growth downgrades, most recently by the IMF,[1] we are watching three developments this month that signal better prospects heading into 2021.Remittances have surprised on the upside. Monies sent home have expectedly declined but not as much as anticipated. After plummet...

UAE: Sharjah and RAK downgraded by S&P
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Oct 2020

* The downgrades were to record lows of A- (RAK) and BBB- (Sharjah). * The Covid crisis has harmed the activity they rely on to generate fees and tax revenue. * RAK runs surpluses and has more liquid assets than debt. * Sharjah has a large structural deficit relative to its revenue and s...

Fiscal Risk, Exchange Rate and Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2020

Inflation measured by the IPCA-15 has accelerated sharply in recent months, rising from 1.9% in June to 3.5% in October over the preceding 12 months. This increase has a visible “cause”, namely the weakening of the exchange rate, and if that were all, we could conclude that: a) the increase of in...

Economics: Remittances show historical increases during the economic crisis
MEXICO · Report · 26 Oct 2020

Since the outset of the current pandemic, Mexicans working abroad have been casting a substantial lifeline not only to their loved ones back home, but also to Mexicans as a whole. Defying all expectations, the remittance stream to Mexican households experienced an historical spike even as Covid-1...

​Servant of the People performs poorly at local elections, predictably
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2020

Local elections, held on October 25th, brought no surprise. The ruling party Servant of the People lost this voting across the board. Zelenskiy and his party failed to win any big city of Ukraine. And as of now we can report only five mid-level towns where candidates from the Servant of the Peopl...

80% Approve
CHILE · Report · 26 Oct 2020 · 1 response

In an 80-20 vote, Chileans opted to begin a process to draft a new constitution. In April they will elect a constituent assembly, which will then have a year to do its job. The process introduces new uncertainty to Chilean politics, but also helps the country heal not only from the conflict of th...

The legislature focuses on the post-pandemic and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2020

The highlight of the week is the Central Bank meeting that will set the benchmark interest rate. In the Lower House, deputies will try to vote on the bill that allows for the use of R$ 177 billion from federal funds for the pandemic and the new legal framework for currency exchange. The Federal S...

Politics: General’s arrest unmasks major problems
MEXICO · Report · 26 Oct 2020

The October 15 arrest of Mexican General Salvador Cienfuegos in Los Angeles hit Mexico like a bombshell. He has been indicted on various drug trafficking-related counts corresponding to his time as defense minister throughout the administration of Enrique Peña Nieto. The news of Cienfuegos’s ...

Response to Ray Dalio
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Oct 2020

Ray Dalio published an op-ed in the Financial Times last week, "Don’t be blind to China’s rise in a changing world", October 23, to which I take issue. He displays a distinct lack of subtlety when it comes to knowledge of China and makes broad statements that are either exaggerations or are outri...

Monetary decision disappoints the markets
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Oct 2020

Markets were somewhat disappointed by the minor adjustments made in monetary policy last week. Economic indicators point to a sharp deceleration since the second lockdown, although manufacturing exports expanded. Moody’s decided to postpone a rating report on Israel, most likely until the fiscal ...

Dangerous monetary arithmetic, version 2020
ARGENTINA · Report · 26 Oct 2020

Capital markets remain concerned about Argentina’s economic and political outlook, despite the successful international debt swap and the more recent oversubscribed domestic dollar-linked debt placement. The failure of the long-term lockdown to avert the spread of the COVID virus and the conseque...

Monetary decision disappoints the markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Oct 2020

Rates remained unchanged with little additional accommodation. Policy rates remain at 0.1%, Governor Yaron expressed little inclination to go to zero or negative. The bond purchasing framework was expanded by 35bn ILS, but the pace of monthly purchases is not expected to accelerate. LTRO’s will b...

A clear and imminent danger
TURKEY · Report · 25 Oct 2020

Turkey is in the midst of a deep COVID-19 crisis, which should supersede all other topics in the domestic agenda. On Saturday, the press reported that dozens of private hospitals in Istanbul were to be converted to pandemic care facilities, attesting to the severity of the second wave. We predict...

Turkey continues purchase of Russian missiles despite American objections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Oct 2020 · 1 response

On October 23 Turkey confirmed it was still purchasing - and now testing - Russian air defense S 400 systems. The US vigorously protested. Turkey is a NATO member. The Turkes insisted they have the right to buy Russian arms. The US threatened unspecified sanctions. The Turks are confident that NA...

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