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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political temperatures shoot up
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Oct 2020

After a relatively calm spell, political temperatures are again rising, as the government is bent on holding unfair parliamentary elections on December 6 to do away with Juan Guaidó’s Interim Government. The United Nations Human Rights Council’s recent release of its Independent International...

​GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s emir mourned, Q2 GDP pain for Saudi & Bahrain, Oman bond delayed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Oct 2020 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Sheikh Nawaf became Kuwaiti emir, and the term of parliament was extended until October 20. * Speculation mounts about when a crown prince will be named, and who it will b...

Russian markets hit by multiple worries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Oct 2020

On October 2 Russian market slid. They had been faltering anyway but the news that Trump has coronavirus seems to have accelerated this trend. If Biden wins he is likely to be less friendly to Russia. The MOEX index fell by 2%. The USD denominated RTS Index lost 3%. That is its lowest since May 2...

​The government announced new dollar-linked debt
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 02 Oct 2020

In a press conference, the Minister of Economy announced yesterday, accompanied by the Minister of Production Matías Kulfas, the Minister of Agriculture Luis Basterra, the head of the local IRS (AFIP) Mercedes Marcó del Pont and the Deputy Chief of Cabinet Cecilia Todesca new economic measures ai...

Mourão recognizes difficulties in sources of funding for Renda Cidadã
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2020

Adopting the same position as the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, Vice President Hamilton Mourão said today that the government “probably” will not use resources from court order payments or Fundeb to finance the Renda Cidadã. According to the Vice President, there are only two alternative...

Remote working returns to Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2020

On October 1 the Mayor of Moscow ordered employers to return at least 30% of their workers to remote working. The rule takes effect on October 5 and will last until October 28 at least. There were 24 000 new coronavirus cases on October 1. People over 65 and those at high risk must work from home...

The pirates are circling
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Oct 2020

The plunge in aggregate demand, coupled with reduced remittances of profits abroad, cut Colombia’s current account deficit by half a percentage point of GDP between Q1 and Q2. Since the downturn continued during Q3, the risk of worsening external imbalances vis-à-vis 2019 is low. With abundant l...

The MNB has chosen verbal intervention instead of a higher deposit rate today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Oct 2020

Following some preliminary excitement on the market, the MNB has not raised the 1-week deposit rate any further at today's tender: it has been left at the 0.75%, exactly the same as one week ago. However, vice governor Virág spoke in the morning, sending the forint to significantly stronger level...

Russian tourism lost USD 7 billion
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2020

On October 1 the Russian Tourism Union announced that the industry had suffered a huge loss this year. This might reach USD 9 billion by the end of 2020. The tourism industry has suffered even more though Russian than ever have vacationed inside the country. Foreign tourists spend more per head t...

The EU's rule-of-law mechanism remains a problem for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Oct 2020

The rule-of-law mechanism, the intended new set of rules under which member countries' access to EU financial transfers (grants and loans) could be suspended in case of serious wrongdoings by their governments in the area of the domestic rule of law, is not on the agenda of the European Council's...

Russia accuses Azerbaijan of using Syrian rebels
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2020

On September 30 Moscow said that Azerbaijan has used rebels from Syria and Libya to fight against Armenia. Russia is very troubled by this. The fighters are said to be Sunni extremists whom Russia finds outrageous. Moscow described these people as terrorists. This statement echoes Armenian statem...

Russian super hacker jailed in the US
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2020

On September 29 Yevgeny Nikulin was given 7 years in federal prison in the United States. Nikulin has been dubbed the Putin of hacking. He hacked LinkedIn, Dropbox and other social media entities.Nikulin has spent 4 years in jail awaiting trial. He was arrested in the Czech Republic and was extra...

​Echavarría cleared for another 4-year term at the Central Bank
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 30 Sep 2020

Even though Law 1821 states that 70 years is the mandatory retirement age for public (unelected) officials, the Constitutional Court ruled today that this restriction does not apply to the members of the Board of the Central Bank, including the Governor. The ruling was based on the fact that Banc...

Guedes shows optimism and seeks to soften criticism of Renda Cidadã financing
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2020

Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes spoke about the Renda Cidadã program for the first time since it was announced that it would be financed by resources used for court order payments. According to Guedes, “This will not happen, as this is not a healthy, clean, permanent and predictable source o...

The recession continues, but the September opening of the economy may help in 4Q; the MEF goes to the market successfully
PANAMA · Report · 30 Sep 2020

The figures through July show double-digit decreases in real activity in all sectors with the exception of the Canal and seaports. Central Government revenues (taxes and non-taxes) are following the same pattern. The MEF issued debt for US$ 2.575 million: (1) a re-tap of the 2060 bond for US$ 1 b...

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