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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Foreign debt issues will take some pressure off domestic yields
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Apr 2020

The spread of the coronavirus in Israel appears to be slowing in recent days. The MoF announced a fairly modest fiscal stimulus scheme with actual expenditure growth of 2.5% GDP. We think the fiscal deficit will reach 8% GDP this year; financing this deficit will be facilitated by issuance abroa...

Mitigation efforts in times of coronavirus
PERU · Report · 06 Apr 2020

The Peruvian government was among the first in the region to order stringent social distancing measures, despite a relatively low number of cases at the time. As of April 4th, only 17,841 tests had been applied, 1,746 people had tested positive and 73 people had died. The number of cases is expec...

Negative comments diminish hopes for a new OPEC+ deal
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2020

There have been new developments, both positive and negative, over the weekend on the prospects for a renewed (and greatly expanded) OPEC+ deal. The market may start to take a view on this early in the week, possibly as soon as Asian trading opens on Monday, with the potential for a significant i...

Foreign debt issues will take some pressure off domestic yields
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Apr 2020

The Employment Agency continues to report an increase in the demand for unemployment benefits, reaching 880 thousand (including forced unpaid vacation). This represents 25% of the labour force. The MoF announce a modest fiscal stimulus package of 80bn (5.5% GDP). Only about 2.5% (35bn ILS) are ex...

Russia orders restrictions on grain exports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Apr 2020

On April 2 Russia legally limited the amount of grain that can be exported. This will apply to wheat, maize, barley, rye and a mixture of them called meslin. Only 7 million tonnes of the foregoing can be exported. The export limits exclude Kazakhstan and Belarus since they are in a customs union ...

In search of bold action
TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2020 · 2 responses

As the number of patients rose to ca 24K as of Saturday, President Erdogan was compelled to instate an intercity travel ban for 30 major cities and mandatory facemasks in public. Yet, he shied away from a nationwide curfew. While the new public health measures may be useful in slowing down the ep...

Recession looming
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2020

The coronavirus is indeed spreading much faster than analysts can update GDP growth forecasts. Our last update was only a month ago, before the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. That number, a 50bp downgrade to 5.7%, lower than other analysts’ forecasts at the time, is clearly now ov...

New details of a fiscal action plan were revealed this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Apr 2020

Following weeks of growing public expectation, the government this morning went further to reveal its fiscal action plan in response the Covid-19 crisis, and also promised to announce many more details over the coming week.In total, government speakers are talking about the fiscal intervention to...

Foreigners selling Russian federal bonds
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Apr 2020

On April 2 data from the Russian Exchange showed foreigners were dumping Russian federal bonds (OFZs). Over USD 3.5 billion worth were sold in March. This is the biggest sell off of any month ever. It is more than twice the sell off of June 2018 caused by US sanctions. This is due to the fear eng...

Polls show wear on Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2020

Two polls released today, April 3, show wear on President Jair Bolsonaro amid the coronavirus crisis. According to Datafolha, Bolsonaro’s performance is rated as “bad/very bad” by 39% of respondents. The president’s approval rating is at 33%. According to XP/Ipespe, the president’s negative ratin...

​Gulf weekly: Bahrain repays, Qatar looks to issue and oil bounces
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Apr 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rebounded on hopes of a new OPEC+ deal after a Trump-MBS call. * Coronavirus cases doubled in the Gulf but the growth rate halve...

Russia’s response to the virus update: a mix of reasonable macroeconomic policy and somewhat chaotic measures to support the economy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Apr 2020

As Russian financial markets bounced back and the ruble strengthened, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about how the situation may evolve in Russia. Even though oil prices have jumped, they may easily go down if the situation deteriorates globally. In trying to address these issues the ...

Ukraine struggles with coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2020

On April 3 Ukraine announced that coronavirus cases rose 138 in one day. The total is now 942. Only 4400 tests have been carried out in a country of 40 million. Therefore the true coronavirus figure is perhaps much higher. On April 3 a new regulation forbade people from going outside without a ma...

All is relatively dull on the inflation front
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2020 · 1 response

CPI inflation came in at 0.57%, m/m, in March broadly in line with expectations (0.5%), with the 12-month CPI rate hence easing to 11.9% from 12.4% in February. Domestic-PPI inflation came in at 0.87% in the month, which also lowered the 12-month rate to 8.5%, from 9.3% in the previous month (Gra...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: Mexico - Economic and governability crises knock on the door
MEXICO · Report · 02 Apr 2020

Live from Mexico City, Mauricio Gonzalez and Guillermo Valdes discuss their forecasts for the country's economy, Pemex’s finances, and the prospects for governability in the current time of global crisis and uncertainty. ​

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