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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Economy extends slowing trend
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jun 2019 · 1 response

The May 30 announcement by the president of the United States that it will impose a 5% tariff on all imports from Mexico effective June 5, with the possibility to raise it by an additional 5% each month until it hits 25% October 1, could have additional negative effects on the economy. It is very...

Is the economy recovering?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jun 2019

​From a technical standpoint, Brazil is not in a recession, and possibly will not enter this phase of the economic cycle in the next quarter, when there should be slight (and mediocre) growth. However, although a double dip is not in sight, the recovery of economic activity is disappointing to sa...

Political instability could rattle fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Jun 2019

Highlights: Private consumption appears to be slowing modestly. - Credit card purchases are up 6.5% saar in February-April, slowing from 7.6% in the previous three months. - Chain store sales are up 1.0% saar in February-April, following 0.2% in the previous three months. - Ret...

Another ​benign inflation print thanks to food prices, as stickiness continues
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jun 2019

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 1%, m/m, in May (consensus: around 1.3%), with the 12-month rate thus easing to 18.7% from 19.5% in April. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation was 2.7%, on the back of a weaker lira and higher energy prices, but given last year’s elevated base, the 12-mont...

Just run the executive branch, Mr. President
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Jun 2019

As in many sports, governments dedicate their energies not only to scoring goals, but to stopping opponents’ attacks.Until May, when President Iván Duque at last began building a congressional coalition, his administration had not followed this principle. Duque lacked a working coalition to help ...

S-400 saga continues
TURKEY · Report · 02 Jun 2019 · 1 response

Amidst a torrent of contradictory news, the only concrete progress in S-400 crisis is a summit between Presidents Erdogan and Trump at the upcoming G-20 meetings at end-June in Osaka, Japan. Yet, we surmise Ankara may be inching towards postponement of delivery. At home, the Istanbul race is l...

Finally, the Ministry of Finance just allocated of USD 2.5 bn in global bonds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Jun 2019

As most of you probably know, and as we predicted in our last report, this week the Ministry of Finance allocated bonds in the international market for a total amount equivalent to USD 2.5 bn. The amount is USD 250 million above the indicative amount authorized by the 2019 budget law. That means ...

Finance minister Varga spoke about the pleasant part of fiscal plans the other day
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jun 2019 · 1 response

The government is just about to deliver to parliament the draft budget plan, together with the adjoining tax package, for 2020. Probably on this occasion, finance minister Varga appeared publicly on May 30, announcing 13 measures, including tax cuts and refunds, steps to simplify the tax administ...

The central bank’s statistical shock
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 May 2019

The BCV published an extensive set of macroeconomic data on May 28, 2019, after 40 months of pause. The collapse of economic activity and hyperinflation thus become a fact officially accepted by the government. The explanation of BCV’s action is elusive. According to some media, it reflects Ch...

Recession over -- for now
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2019

Broadly in line with expectations, the Turkish economy contracted by 2.6% annually, but expanded by some 1.3% sequentially in the first quarter. While the latter figure is somewhat stronger than our expectation, this is a technicality of sorts that stems from the difficulty of replicating Turksta...

​Indonesia: The ball is in the Constitutional Court
INDONESIA · Report · 31 May 2019

The Indonesian election, which was held on April 17, 2019, has reached a more advanced stage. The formal outcome of the election was announced ahead of schedule, on May 21, 2019, by the Election Commission, with the incumbent, Joko Widodo, winning by a significant margin of 10%. However, the chal...

Political uncertainty could rattle fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · Report · 31 May 2019

Israel will be going to the polls again on September 17, 2019, five months after the most recent elections. Netanyahu was not able to form a coalition with Lieberman ("Yisrael Beiteinu") due to a disagreement over the mandatory army service law, forcing the ultra-orthodox to serve gradually. Lieb...

Pro-Russian party trying to reunite itself in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2019

The Opposition Block (OB) in the Ukraine is trying to reunite. Opposition Platform split from OB in 2018. If Opposition Platform rejoins OB then it will be much more formidable. The precursor to the Opposition Block was the Party of the Regions which was led by Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych was t...

The new economic team is (almost) in place…facing a tight fiscal situation and a slow real activity
PANAMA · Report · 30 May 2019

Héctor Alexander, former Minister of Economy and Finance (MEF) from 2007-2009, and University of Chicago graduate, will be in charge again of this office, presumably until January when the MEF might split into two separate entities: MEF itself will likely transform into the Ministry of Treasury (...

Foreign holdings of Russian sovereign debt up
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2019 · 1 response

The Ministry of Finance announced that foreign holdings of debt are sharply up in 2019. The total is over USD 50 billion in RUB and FX denominations. The risk of US sanctions has been reduced. The government is keen to make the most of this positive feeling. It is speculated that a new Eurobond w...

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