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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Better perspectives in the midst of internal and external risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 10 Dec 2018 · 1 response

Our projections for 2019 are for GDP growth of 2.4% (versus 1.3% in 2018), with inflation of 4% (thus below the target of 4.25%), and the SELIC rate kept at 6.5% throughout the year. Cyclical recovery will thus accelerate, but the GDP gap will remain in negative territory, leading to inflation be...

Governor Patel resigns
INDIA · Report · 10 Dec 2018

The resignation of RBI Governor Urjit Patel was a surprise after the last RBI board meeting, which is reported to have been quite cordial. While the governor cited personal reasons for his resignation, it is suspected that the forthcoming RBI board meeting on December 14 had agenda items about RB...

Bolsonaro’s relations with Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2018 · 1 response

This is almost the last week of legislative activity in the Lower House before the congressional recess. There are a set of bills on the voting agenda which, if approved, could generate an impact of around R$ 47 billion over the next few years. Jair Bolsonaro will be cleared by the TSE on Monday,...

The FX market likely to react to lower CA surplus in Q3
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Dec 2018

Wage growth accelerated in September, reaching 4.4% y/y, supportive of some inflationary pressure. The fiscal deficit reached 3.5% of GDP in LTM as tax revenues remain soft in November. Today, the protocol from the most recent rate decision will be released, revealing how hawkish the MPC is leani...

Subdued inflation and low interest rates: The positive legacy left for the new government
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Dec 2018

The combination of low inflation and low interest rates for an extended period is an inheritance that leaves no reason for the new government to complain. In November a new “surprise” occurred, with inflation finishing below the median of projections, giving another clear indication of no inflati...

Growth slows sharply in Q3
TURKEY · Report · 10 Dec 2018 · 3 responses

After registering annual growth rates of 7.2% and 5.3% in the past two quarters, GDP slowed markedly to 1.6% in the third quarter of the year, which was somewhat weaker than expectations. Much more notably, however, GDP contracted quite a bit sharper than expected in quarterly terms (working-day ...

Russia tries to encourage technology exports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Dec 2018

The National Technology Initiative (NTI) is a state policy to tap into new markets and achieve Russian technological mastery by 2035. The NTI has been complaining that it does not have the means to achieve this very ambitious goal. The NTI has been given USD 233 million with little to show for it...

Opposition to subsidy reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2018

On 5 December the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepeneurs sent a letter to the Russian Government outlining their worries about proposed changes to the system of subsidies. The change would only give subsidies to profitable companies with growing exports. The idea is to reinforce success...

Robust short-term performance but major fundamental risks for medium term
HUNGARY · Presentation · 07 Dec 2018

Hungary’s current macro performance appears robust, with real GDP growth of 4-5%, low unemployment and low inflation by emerging market standards. However, major problems for the medium term include growth and a budget heavily reliant on unsustainable EU grants, inconsistent labor markets and gro...

Monetary stimulus and land sales
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Dec 2018

China has witnessed a significant increase in unsuccessful land auctions in 2018. The rate for the top Tier 1 and 2 cities rose to 6.4 percent in 7M 2018 from 5.7 percent in 2017. In this report, we ask the question – what types of credit are linked to the success or failure of land auctions? And...

Assessing the new relationship with China
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 07 Dec 2018

Economic activity expansion has been amazing all year, rising 6.9% to Q3, while the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity showed an expansion of 8.6% in September. Inflation remained low (0.22%) in October, and the annualized rate reached 3.52%, within the target range set in the monetary prog...

South Africa’s current account deteriorates in the third quarter
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Dec 2018

Following the encouraging GDP numbers earlier this week, indicating South Africa exited the technical recession, the other significant economic metric to come out this week unfortunately shows the country’s current account deteriorated, even if just marginally. The recently released data by the R...

From LEBAC to LELIQ
ARGENTINA · Presentation · 07 Dec 2018

The government is struggling to revert the country's macro imbalances. Central Bank President Guido Sandleris significantly changed the macro policy framework, including unwinding LEBACs. However, the Central Bank must pay a high interest rate to lure banks into the new LELIQs. • Even though the...

World Bank predicts low Russian growth
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2018

The World Bank issued a forecast predicting Russian growth of only up to 1.5% on average until 2028. This is a far cry from the Russian Government's objective. President Putin decreed that Russia should become a top five economy by 2024. In order to achieve this Russia would have to grow at 4.4.%...

Q3 GDP came out even stronger in second estimate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2018

KSH's second estimate of Q3 GDP growth was reported at 1.3% qoq, 5.2% yoy, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis, revising the preliminary figures of 1.2% qoq, 5% yoy. The upward revision is no big deal in itself, but the new quarterly GDP total and details allow analysts to revisit their full-yea...

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