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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A clear road ahead
CHILE · Report · 01 Aug 2018

In July, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) once again surprised markets on the upside. Expectations for GDP growth continue to improve – this, despite that in May, the 12-month variation of retail sales fell sharply, coming in below the expectations of even the most pessimistic anal...

Financial needs forecast update
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2018

In our report of July 23, with our third quarter forecasts, we have introduced some changes in Table 8, regarding the financial accounts. We raised our forecast of the financing needs from the market to USD 28.6 billion. This compares to the USD 25.9 billion in the second quarter forecast. The in...

RBI hikes interest rates
INDIA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India hiked the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent today. The move came after RBI had hiked rates for the first time after 4 years in June 2018. Inflation data in India shows that while there has been a moderation of food p...

South African Political Economy Temperature Rising
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2018

Structural and cyclical factors have combined to make the SA political economy scene in the country dynamic, robust and often times confusing. President Ramaphosa, meanwhile, keeps committed to his vision of reviving ethical leadership, reigniting the country’s self-image of ‘unity in diversity’,...

The return of optimism
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Jul 2018

After displaying some pessimism, Kompas Daily, the most prestigious and credible newspaper in Indonesia, reported the return of optimism in the FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) industries. A number of retailers gave testimony to the optimism they shared. The FMCG industries also reported better-...

TV ad time does not equal electoral success and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jul 2018

These are the last few days for political parties to hold their conventions and define candidates and coalitions ahead of the October elections; the deadline is Sunday, August 5. At least five additional presidential candidates will be made official in the next few days. Congress and the Superior...

Mixed economic indicators and mixed economic and political signals
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jul 2018

July has produced a batch of economic indicators showing generally positive results against the backdrop of national elections that gave a clear mandate to a man who continues to advance contradictory economic and fiscal policies - a hefty degree of inconsistency that leaves business leaders and ...

Can private banks fill the gap created by weak public banks?
INDIA · Report · 30 Jul 2018

An optimistic reading of Indian banking involves the proposition that India is achieving a useful de facto transition from public-sector-bank domination to a domination by private banks. In this reading, private bank credit is growing fast and will supplant the lack of credit growth by the publi...

Political uncertainty and asset price volatility
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jul 2018

Although the real has recently appreciated in parallel with the drop in the country’s CDS quotations and slight flattening of the yield curve, asset prices remain extremely volatile. That variability is partly due to the change in the international scenario, dominated by the monetary normalizatio...

CPI-inflation will most likely rise moderately further in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jul 2018

The wholesale prices of fuel rose by 0.5% mom in July, following much faster increases - 10.1% in total - over the previous three months. Assuming the same monthly increase by the consumer prices of fuel and the same 0.1% mom increase in non-fuel prices as the one recorded in the same month of la...

Perspectives for the credit supply
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jul 2018

The flows of new credit in real terms, both to households and firms, remained stable in the first half of 2018. On the one hand there was a steady decline in the interest rates on loans, together with a reduction in the level of default, indicating better credit conditions. On the other, the indi...

Soft growth in Q2 will not facilitate early tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Jul 2018

Recent economic indicators point to some slowing of growth, especially private consumption. We expect Q218 GDP to reach 2.5%, a low print that could complicate a rate hike decision in the near future. Our inflation forecast has been updated: 0.2% m/m in July, 0.3% in August, -0.2% in September an...

Will China step again on the gas?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Jul 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Over the past three months a scandal has emerged at Huarong Asset Management which may turn out to have substantial implications for the Chinese economy and for asset liquidation abroad. Huarong is the largest of the four AMCs created in 1999, and ...

Turmoil
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Jul 2018 · 1 response

President-elect Iván Duque, just a few days from taking office, is already seeing new challenges piling up, which means everyone is looking to his first days, to ascertain his style. But some economic and fiscal challenges will loom, no matter what kind of president Duque turns out to be. The ...

Economy slows down but mining presents a new opportunity for 2019
PANAMA · Report · 27 Jul 2018

The economy´s slowdown in May was the deepest in decades, fueled by a month-long labor strike in the construction sector. The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) expanded at a rate of 0.76% y/y in May and 3.17% ytd, confirming our forecast of slower economic growth of around one percent due...

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