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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Once more on the Lukoil sanction case: much ado about nothing (or very little at most)
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2024

The first news on the Ukrainian government sanctioning Lukoil's transit shipments of Russian crude oil and oil products to Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia, through the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline that crosses the territory of Ukraine, around mid-July sounded quite dramatic. Then a serie...

Kazakhstan macro: GDP growth gradually decelerates, dragged by delayed budgetary spending, strong tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Aug 2024

In recent publications, the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan has provided additional color on the country’s macroeconomic performance of the past few months. According to the Bureau, the nation’s GDP grew by 3.2% y-o-y in 1H24, which looked unimpressive compared to last year’s 5.1% gro...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF returns rise, Oman achieves H1 fiscal surplus, Gaza ceasefire talks drag on, planned Ukraine-Russia talks in Doha fall through
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Aug 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * PIF’s annualized returns since 2017 rose to 8.7%, and its Giga-Project assets doubled in 2023. * Gender equality in the Saudi labor force is improving but still lags on salaries and managerial roles. * The number of new R...

Haddad announced that the government plans to submit an income tax reform proposal, the House will resume voting on the second Tax Reform bill, and election ads can be aired on TV and radio starting today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2024

Yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced that the government plans to submit a proposal for income tax reform to the National Congress within the next 60 days. The bill is expected to include the creation of new tax brackets and the introduction of taxes on profits and dividends, amo...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan gets a well-warranted rating upgrade
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Aug 2024

S&P has upgraded Tajikistan to B from B- citing robust GDP growth, improved external position and moderate public debt levels. We think the upgrade is well deserved. Twice in the last year we have posited that perceptions about Tajikistan’s ability to meet external obligations have been unduly pl...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Aug 2024

Aug 7 President: Mr. Tokayev approved the national development plan until 2029. According to the document, Kazakhstan's GDP in 2029 should reach $450 bln (vs $225 bln in 2023). GDP per capita in 2029 is targeted at $21,1K (in 2023 - $13,3K). The share of expenditures on food products as a percent...

Interim Results of the Kursk Operation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Aug 2024

More than two weeks have passed since Ukrainian forces began the Kursk operation. The dust has settled a bit, and we now have a clearer picture of what has happened. In short, the Russians have concentrated all their forces on the Avdiivka area (now referred to as the Pokrovsk direction), while U...

Moraes has ordered an investigation into the scandal in his office at the TSE, Congress is working on formalizing an agreement on fund transfers, and a poll on the municipal elections in São Paulo was published
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2024

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes has ordered the opening of an investigation into the exchange of messages between his office's advisors and former aides who worked with him at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Today, expert Eduardo Tagliaferro is scheduled to testify at ...

Pacheco said Congress will present a solution to the parliamentary fund transfer issue, the Senate approved the payroll tax relief bill, and Pacheco said the Tax Reform bill’s urgent status will need to be removed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2024

After a meeting between representatives of the three branches of government, Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco stated that the National Congress will present, within 10 days, a definitive solution regarding the execution of parliamentary fund transfers. This announcement helps to reduce the politi...

Are Philippine flood problems being addressed with inappropriate solutions?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 Aug 2024

An answer seems emerging to the question Filipinos ask every year without fail during typhoon season—how long should we have to wait until the flooding problem is finally solved? In Metropolitan Manila, at least, it would take 23 years. Yes, 23 years! This is no exaggeration considering that this...

Boluarte’s bid for popularity fails; economy slows, but should grow 2.8% in 2024; BCRP likely to cut 25bp per month until December
PERU · Report · 20 Aug 2024 · 1 response

We discuss three topics in this report. We begin with President Dina Boluarte‘s recent failed attempt to boost her popularity. We next consider the June real GDP report from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI, the national statistical institute), which confirms a sharp econ...

The 2024 Elections: With the formation of the GNU, the left is realigning
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Aug 2024

Last Thursday, August 15, Mr. Floyd Shivambu, the co-founder and Deputy Commander-in-Chief (The Party Leader) of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), resigned from the party and announced he would join the MKP (uMkhonto weSizwe Party). The announcement is yet another “aftershock” of the May 2024 ...

Senator Wagner may present a new draft of the payroll tax exemption bill, government leaders meet to discuss Justice Dino’s injunction on parliamentary fund transfers, and the CNE holds a protest in front of the AGU
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2024

Senator Jaques Wagner may present a new draft of the bill that deals with the reduction of payroll tax exemptions. The government's goal is to try to vote on the bill this week. A meeting is scheduled today between the President of the STF, Luís Roberto Barroso, and the Presidents of the Senate, ...

On hold, as expected
TURKEY · Report · 20 Aug 2024

The CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate at 50% today, as expected. Today’s statement also differs relatively little from the July statement (here and here, respectively), but now: i) more emphasis is placed on the alignment of expectations and pricing behavior with inflation projections, which “has gai...

Economics: Banxico cut of reference rate can be considered premature
MEXICO · Report · 20 Aug 2024 · 1 response

As mentioned in last week's edition of the Economic Outlook, the Banco de México's Board of Governors decided at its August 8 meeting to lower the reference rate from 11% to 10.75%, with three votes in favor and two against. This occurred in the context of the recent publication of the July 2024 ...

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