Politics: 4T balance sheet — a deteriorating outlook
Claudia Sheinbaum's government has been largely consumed by managing the difficult legacy inherited from López Obrador. This legacy includes a stagnant and indebted economy, a public security crisis rooted in the "hugs, not bullets" policy toward organized crime, an authoritarian-leaning political project that has eroded institutional checks, and a costly social and wage policy that strains public finances.
The 4T governing model rests on four pillars — an unchecked presidency, social and wage policy, a hegemonic party, and a populist narrative — but three of the four are showing clear signs of deterioration. According to a recent Latinus national public opinion survey, Sheinbaum's approval has dropped 21 points since March 2025, and nearly seven in ten citizens believe the country is beyond her control. Morena's net favorability collapsed from 63 to 27 points over the same period, driven largely by the public's perception of the party's growing association with organized crime, reinforced by the US extradition request targeting Sinaloa state officials. The party's voting intention has fallen fourteen points, and society is evenly split on whether Morena should continue in power.
The one pillar holding firm is social and wage policy: most citizens report stable or improved household finances and credit the government with supporting seniors, raising wages, and creating jobs — insulating the administration's popularity for now. However, this support is fragile. Without fiscal reform, rising public debt could trigger a loss of investment grade, higher interest rates, spending cuts, and stalled wage growth — a scenario with serious electoral consequences for 2030.
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