A most critical MPC on deck
President Erdogan proclaimed an end to the fund crisis, as judicial operations against CHP-run municipalities and MPs stepped up. Also, Turkey’s leading pro-opposition broadcaster Halk TV was taken over by the SDIF. Is this the rallying call of Erdogan’s final assault against the opposition nexus on the way to 2028 elections? If so, what is next?
Alas, Erdogan is most probably wrong in thinking the fund crisis is a closed chapter, as several polls find its rising importance to the constituency and the wide-spread belief that the real culprits will never be turned over to justice. Him and his party could face a visible drop in poll support around the turn of the year.
There have been several important developments in foreign affairs, led by Trump calling on Turkey and Pakistan to close their borders with Iran. Ankara and Baku clashed over the latter’s Islamic headscarf ban in schools. The Greek Cypriot leader believes a new round of peace talks in Cyprus may be around the corner. Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan heralded that Turkey may soon open her borders to Armenian trade and visitations.
The econ section is very brief. We share some thoughts on the upcoming MPC meeting on Thursday and provide a quick rundown of recent data releases, saving our appetite for the more thorough report we plan to send late next week.
As regards the MPC, the econ author thinks there is a very strong case to leave the policy rate unchanged, but that is not the most likely outcome, nevertheless.
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