Anatomy of an imbalance

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 02 Jun 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

GDP grew by 1.4% in the first quarter compared to last of 2024 in seasonally adjusted terms, slightly below the average market forecast of 1.5%. Compared to the same period last year, it grew 2.9%, also slightly below expectations.

There were no surprises in terms of growth breakdown: as anticipated by analysts, agriculture was the main driver of the result, with seasonally adjusted growth of 12.2% and a year-over-year increase of just over 10%.

In contrast, performance in the other sectors was not particularly strong—quite the opposite: industrial GDP contracted slightly by 0.1%, while services expanded by just 0.3%, both similar to the pace observed at the end of 2024 and well below the figures from the first three quarters of that year.

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