Consequences of the new tariffs on the presidential race and other weekly topics
Senate President Davi Alcolumbre is expected to meet with party leaders to discuss the legislative path of the proposal to end Brazil’s 6x1 work schedule. The Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee is set to review the constitutional amendment granting financial autonomy to the Central Bank. A new Genial/Quaest presidential poll is also expected this week. On Thursday, the FIFA World Cup begins, with Brazil scheduled to play its opening match on Saturday, June 13.
This week's Talking Points:
- Government support rises in May: Strong support for the critical minerals bill and the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) to eliminate Brazil’s six-days-on, one-day-off work schedule largely explains the increase in government backing from April to May.
- Consequences of the new tariffs on the presidential race: The announcement of two new rounds of U.S. tariffs against Brazil is reshaping the dynamics of Brazil’s presidential succession, providing Lula, who is seeking reelection, with a powerful political message of national sovereignty.
- The impact of Brazil's election on South America's geopolitics. The nomination of Daniel Perez, a Republican congressman from Florida closely aligned with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to serve as U.S. ambassador to Brazil has the potential to keep allegations of American interference in Brazil’s presidential election on the political agenda throughout the year.
- Lula and Trump—tariffs and Pix test the relationship. Brazil has reacted most strongly in defense of Pix, Brazil’s instant payment system, which Washington views as a potential challenge to segments of the U.S. financial industry.
- Lula accelerates the government's agenda. President Lula is entering the coming weeks determined to intensify public exposure of the government’s positive initiatives.
- Alcolumbre signals a slow path for the end of the 6x1 work schedule: Senate President and President of Congress Davi Alcolumbre signaled how he intends to handle the constitutional amendment to end Brazil’s 6x1 work schedule. His approach, however, could complicate the government’s plans.
- Freight transportation Executive Order could become a liability for Lula: Any outcome short of approval of the measure in a form acceptable to truck drivers is likely to be viewed as a failure by the federal government, and could possibly lead to strikes and blockades, hurting Lula’s election campaign.
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