China rebalancing and the Iran War

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 06 Apr 2026 by Andrew Collier

China’s official policy statements stress the importance of rebalancing the economy from industry to consumption—a point stressed by most foreign economists as a key transition. During the 15th Five-Year Plan meeting in March, Premier Li Qiang urged that "industrial upgrading should be driven by consumption upgrading, and high-quality supply should better meet diverse demands". However, the Politburo has so far proven unwilling to make such a drastic change in the country’s economic structure. Over the past two decades, a combination of external events and bad policy decisions have kept China down the path of state-led industrial investment. The Iran War is the latest event that further discourages rebalancing.

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